Sunday, November 22, 2015

Slow and steady

Hey Folk

I think it is quite clear that the FED is going to raise rate. After the Fed meeting minutes out on Wednesday the market went up. I think maybe the anticipation is ending soon so a more clear action can be seen. However, the question is how much the rate will rise.

We are in a uptrend in the US market, Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei. The rest of the market like STI, China and Hong Kong are still in a downtrend. This actually give us a very clear indication of the stronger and weaker market. So long the strongest and short the weakest.

Gold to me is a downtrend. If you read my posting before, you would have known that gold have a 30 years cycle and commodities tend to reverse to the mean. Gold is in the 15 year down cycle. 6 years have passed, so there is approximately another 9 more years to go. The good thing is gold will move quite slowly, so price will not collapse so fast. It take time to even reach 700.

Oil is another commodities that is in the process of reserving to the mean. This is a wilder instrument. They are quite volatile. Oil as well is in a downtrend.


I have got stop out in oil. Shorted the stock market this week. Long and profited on Sterling.


Saturday, November 14, 2015

Shake shake

Hey Folk

We are back to a uptrend. The market is getting shaky again. After awhile you realise that the market will trend after a shaky or unsure period. So now is the unsure and shaky period again, so next the market will trend. When is the unsure period going to be over, is the golden question.

Confession, any indicators on a stock market is not as accurate as before. Back in the good old days, the stock market is much easier to predict. Now (to be exact after 2007-08 crisis) the market is getting harder and harder to foresee. The reason being stock market are more popular, there are more participant and all sort of account sizes. So too many cook spoil the broth. A lot of indicators works well in the commodities and FX region. To analysis the stock market, we have to use a lot of indicators from different perspectives to give a rather accurate findings. Yet these indicators have to be prioritize base on the assumed situations, none of the indicators are a permanent solution for the assumed situations.

However, one fact that has lasted for the test of times is that stock indices always goes up except Japan. Stock market ( referring to indices ) have a upwards bias. The other truth so far is the relationship with bond price.

I think the rate raise will come in December, unless somethings happen from now till then. I changed my stand is because I find that it is more of a political reason rather than a economic reason. Inflation is still low, if is rising, we will already see oil price rising. It is very vivid, we common man on the ground will know it. Example electric bill rise, gas we use for cooking rise, petrol price rise, soap, detergent, egg etc price will go up. However, all this did not happen.

This actually show that economic activities are slowing down. Remember a few weeks ago, I said that our PM say that be prepare for slow down. He never BS. They know things way ahead of us. So be prepared.


Liquid all my positions this week. Shorted gold again,

Look at suntec riets and Keppel reits. Good shorting candidate.
Asia and emerging market stock are much weaker. Take advantage of it.


Saturday, November 7, 2015

Uptrend now

Hey Folk

Unemployment at 5%. A sign that is good for a small interest rate hike. Probably that is really happening in December.

We are back to uptrend in the stock market already. So now is loading more longs than shorts position. I do forsee a up move till the end of the year. Surely it would not be a straight line up. There will be pull backs and consolidation. Dooms sayer are caught once again. I do believe one fine day the market will come off and stay in bearish for 2-3 years, but now is not the time. I still think we have room to grow.

There are a lot of people out there saying that the market are bearish. I think they are my indicator as well. It tell me that if I do the opposite, I will be in profit.


I loaded up on USD this week. Look out for REITS for shorting. I am also looking at Alibaba.

Well this week nothing much. Until next time…..


Saturday, October 31, 2015

Nice up run

Hey Folk

Read this article, Prime Minister said to prepare for slowdown in the economy. I consider this ‘insider information’. They have way ahead information than we have. So embrace, tighten your belt. Sometimes it maybe way ahead of what is actually going to happen. But it is very useful information.

Fed meeting ended on 28 Oct Wed. Read what they say. No rate raise yet. In my previous entries I had mention that no rate raise so fast. GDP 3rd Qtr in the US missed forecast, pending home sales dropped too. Will they rise rate in December? Let see the inflation rate.

Next let go into a COT chart so maybe we will be in sync

This is a weekly COT chart VS weekly Oil price
Red is the commercial aka the Big Boys. Blue is the funds. Green are the retail traders. Weekly price of oil is in black.
In 2011:
The commercial build up their long position about since the second quarter of 2011, buying when the oil price dip. Oil price went up again in about the second quarter of 2012,
Notice that the small speculator or retail are extreme seller when the price are low and extreme buyer when the price peaked.
In 2013:
Somewhat the same happen in second quarter of 2013, commercial max buyer and retailer max seller, and the price went up.
In 2014:
Notice in start of 2014, the commercial are shorting, they are shorting it for about 6 months, before the price of oil came off and stay down for the next one year.
At the same time, the small speculator or the retail in green are at extreme buying at the start of 2014, oil price went up abit and the retail sold. Then they are back to extreme buying again when the oil price is peaking while the commercial still are at extreme selling.
Commercial are extreme seller, however the retail are selling into it as well. So there is not a ideal setup on the COT. We see price of oil rally on Wednesday night.
As the COT suggest from last week post, I am still short on EurUsd and took a good profit. This week COT suggest a good short setup for Gold. I am in too. I also still hold long position in the S&P500 and took profit. We are still in a downtrend in the stock market. On Friday it had a outside bar that close negative. This can’t confirm anything yet. Let wait and see.
Singapore stock wise, start to look at REITS. Not to buy but to short sell. Capital commercial trust, Suntec, Cambridge are in my list.

Friday, October 23, 2015

Some entries

Hey Folk

This is going to be a short one due to my travel schedule.

Past few weeks I am talking about the possible rise in the stock market. Here we are!!! I long the stock market on different price for quick trade. Net profit so far.

I had shorted EurUsd and AudUsd.

AudUsd I only make a scratch. As of now there is not a ideal COT setup for AudUsd yet, but let see this week.

 EurUsd has good COT setup for a sell last week. On Thursday( yesterday ) EurUsd had already down 200 plus pips from the open, so let it rest before the next entry

Next there are COT setup for Gold to short. Let wait for the price to be ready for the entry.

Oil too have a setup on the COT ( not a ideal one), let the price be ready for a short entry and let see the COT for this week. Last week I said that oil may have a big rebound, it still true. That maybe explain why the price are not ready for selling and the COT to sell is not ideal.

Trend is still down on the weekly in the stock market despite the market spike up. It is a uptrend on the daily already. No clear indication yet. It is more of a trading environment lately. May the trend be clearer.
**Pls note COT is not a timing indicator. It just tell us the next big trend. Seeing extreme sell in COT by the Big Boys this week do not mean that price will collapse immediately. Sometimes it take months for the price to realize and when the price realized, usually they will stay entrenched in that direction for sometimes.

Stay the same in your funds.


Saturday, October 17, 2015

Showing some light

Hey Folk

We are approaching the seasonal low due in end of Oct which mean traditionally by end of October the market will rise. This time we have Fed meeting on the 27 and 28 of October, maybe this will be the catalysis. Also the earning season is in again, maybe this will lift the market up.
The COT data shows heavy buyer for many weeks several weeks ago. They are still heavy buyer last week. If we map them together, probably we have some hint on where the market is going. However, what I do not like is we are still in a down trend. So be nimble on the long position

I had spent every on finding a better way to determine trend in a faster way with high accuracy. However, I have not found one that has a higher hit rate and also a huge lift off when the trend change than the current one I am using. For sure my current methodology do not allow me to catch the bottom and the top. I also believe there is no such method that one can identify the top or bottom and profit from the market instantly and handsomely. Alright let get into the market.

Another things to look out for in the market is crude oil. Crude is a indicator of how well the economy is doing. A low price in crude oil mean the economy is not doing well. I mean economy and not the stock market. In the present world they are not in sync anymore.

Below is the weekly chart of crude oil

Notice where the cursor is at 53.95. I think crude oil is going to have a rebound to that range. Which mean to say high 53 to low 54 level. Also notice that crude oil trend is down. This is a deeply entrenched downtrend. So be nimble on your long position, if you wish to do a counter trend trade.
Stay the same in your funds. There is nothing to do yet but seem better than last week.
Short and sweet

Saturday, October 10, 2015


Hey Folk

I came across this very interesting video by CNBC. They interviewed the former Fed chairman Bernanke. Please pay attention to what he said for the whole length of video and particularly on 40 second to about 58 second.

40 to 58 second obviously tell us that these people, investment bankers, government, sovereign wealth fund etc knew things that we common people do not know. I wrote this before, saying that my personal experience with these people is that they know things way ahead the news are release. So they will have already be in the market. When the news released, common people will come in and buy or sell a position that the smart money do not want. So in other words we take the goods they do not want and give them the money. That is why again in the COT, the small speculator or the others are always in the wrong direction. Also news are extremely lagging.

Most of the time we try to second guess or think that the policy maker or some bosses made a dumb ass choice or decision. But slowly I realize that I think they know exactly what they are doing. The reason we do not get it is that we do not know the real reason behind what they are doing. Things always make sense once you know all the facts, even if is not to our liking. But what I know is I do not know what the real reason is and I do know that we do not know the truth.


In the video, Bernanke also said that the stock market in China and the economy have no linked. I cannot remember where and when, I read this from our local newspaper saying this as well. The economy in China is doing a transformation, all transformation have certain shake up thus the stock market had a dive. Having said all these are useless now as things already happened. So for me, the COT, seasonal, relations and trend are still my best tell signs of where the money is going.


Their economy are greatly hit since the Ukraine incident. Now they are in the middle east. The shocking part is nobodies know how on earth they transport fighter jets and tanks into there. They are so stealth. I think the fact is I do not think they are there to fight the IS. They are there to restore their economy.

By helping these countries except Saudi, they can come in talk about the production of oil. If they can cut the supply of oil, they most likely can let the price of oil increase. Which in a way will save the dying economy of Russia.

What I believe/ my opinion (may be dead wrong)

We are entering into a slow growth pace globally. Since the Fed is not printing money and coming into the market, the market had lost it artificial simulator. Thus the upward thrust movement of the market will not be as spectacular as the previous years. We are still in a 0 inflation environment which tell us very vividly that there are no spending activities. A lot of money are lock up and kept in stash. I really hope that the US would not go into a deflation like Japan. If so, the whole globe will most likely to suffer a extreme slow growth, which surely impact all individual life. I also think because of this the interest rate would not rise.

We are in a downtrend. But we have not break the low created on Aug 2015 and most importantly Oct 2014 lows. I see very strong buys in the COT, slight divergent of relationships between sectors. If you are trading, I guess is best to stay sideline until the coast is clearer.

There is still no need to change fund yet. We are still within a big range.

Untill next time….