Today is the third day of the Chinese calendar. I wish everyone Good Health and Wealth for you and family.
We have been in a inflationary economy for many donkey years. Will we changed?? Will we be in a new world order??
Japan have introduce a negative interest rate environment. Mean if you put money in the bank, instead of earning interest, you need to pay bank interest. They wish that there are more spending in the economy. These is a period of deflation. Where price do not go up, it goes down. Because it is going down, you will wait and wait and wait before you buy. Of course, my explanation is in a nutshell. The more professional explanation is like a few page long.
Anyway, the world is in a great depression or deflation in the 1929s. People whom had experience this period are either already dead or too young back then to know what is happening. So it is very new to the world and not many people or no one at all knows how to handle this new situation. It is something like if the Fed raise rate, it is new to a lot of traders and financial analysis as rate are depressed for a good 9 years.
Will we really go into these??? I do not know, but some of famous investors said so. I think if these were to happen it will not be so soon. Probably another 5 years to a decade.
On Chinese New Year day, our PM said that we will not be in a Global Financial Crisis. Believed him. It is a slowdown. But probably like in the 07-08 crisis, they have already something up in their sleeve to prevent Singapore to be hit hardly???
Back to focus, I said that Singapore market is drying up in volume. I also know that they have appoint a new CEO a local instead of having a foreigner. Hope that he can revive the Singapore market. I really hope that these happen.
STI key number to hold is 2530. Once break, please use CFD to short. Remember this market is already in a bear.
Bonds are making new high this week. So portfolio with bonds should see certain improvement by end of month. Fund/unit trust are always slower.
My take is a rally in US market end of Feb. Then it will bring the world market to rally as well. Some market whom are already in a bear will be a dead cat bounce. ( mean even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height).
I may be wrong. So please do not take it at 100%.