Monday, August 8, 2016

Herding or Sheparding

Hey Folk

Price rules once again in the US market, there show a divergent in indicator Vs price. Indicator are showing that price should go down. Price on the other hand just keep moving up. So that why we see S&P500 making historical high again.

Will there be lesser upside if an indices moved to historical high?

The answer to this is no. No statistical proven that this has happen. What went high can go higher and what go low can go lower. These happen during certain period of time. Honestly there is no indication in the fundamental data that I have that a huge drop is coming. These data actually show and support the up move and further up move. But I do think a dips or consolidation should take place.

Seasonal trend?

Traditionally these period into Sept will have wild market swing in a consolidation range. Then into October is when the market will start to have up lift. This is just a guide so do not follow it like a holy grail.


The up lift in the market will be a global issue. The strongest market will move and bring the weaker ones along. China in my analysis will bottom soon and should be the next engine in the equity area.

Why actually market goes up these question had a lot of people asking me. If I had to answer them the right way I will say that the global economy are turning better. It is slow but there are slow progression. There is a US election coming up in Nov so chances are the market will move higher.

The real and right way that is in my own reasoning and I see from my data and indicators are there are lots of buying going on. More retails account are selling or shorting. The big boys on the other hand are accumulating since the start of the year. Knowing the real reason do know fetch you profit. Knowing what they are doing does.


I do see that gold will come off. But it is in a no mans zone now. More to the upside in price. But fundamental data totally do not support this price. I do see more retail buying and the big boys are selling.
In investing that I know and learnt is do not follow the herd. Usually following the herd do know get you anywhere. However the Shepard is always the one that divert the herd to the desire place. Follow the shepard but don't trust the shepard. Because sometime we need to know when not to follow a person too closely, when to let go. The trick is how to differential a herd or shepard and how to differential when shepard is killing other shepard.


Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Historical high 2

Hey Folk

Part 2 of it.

Let look at Dow Jones Industrial from yahoo finance

It had already form historical high. Now is about 18,500. Probably it will pass the psychology 20,000 mark. Which is about another 10% for 3 to 6 mths.

Next look at the line that is drawn, the start of the line happen about in 2011. (This is a illustration base on me and my peers age. We graduate about 2010, working for 6mth to a year and have enough saving to invest. )
At that point of time, Dow Jones is about 11,000. Over 6 years till to date, if you invest in Dow Jones you will have a profit of 68%. Just putting your money to work. There are shorter term technique to capture good gains but that need a lot of effort. So if you think thats too much effort and  is not your cup of tea, just find something good and invest in them.

Next STI from yahoo finance

It clearly has not break the historical high of 3805 created in Oct 2007. Now it is 2928. It is clearly a lagger. If you have invested at the start of the line that I drew, it is about end of 2010 which is about 2750. For 6 years, you only had a profit of about 7%. Compare that with Dow Jones of 68%.

Even if before the Lehman Crisis you buy into Dow Jones at 13,930 VS STI at 3805 ( these are historical high price in 2007) . For Dow, one will have a profit of 32.8% while for STI one will have a lost of 23%. These scenario actually happen to a lot of older folk that buy into CPF investment or any other forms of investment during that period of time.

1) Invest in a good horse. Easiest to identify is to compare throughout the  breadth eg same industry and get the best.
2) Conditions will change as time. When condition change leader and trend will be changed.

There is no one regime/ruler/party that rule forever, there is no one era the same, there is no one idea that stay forever. Even for a family, you cant keep your children by your side forever. Most of the time is when the best of the best happen and these best usually become a history.
Look for the condition that will displace the current leader, when the condition occur look for another runner. Now the US market is the leader, will it change to Asia market one day?? Look for that condition.

Also lots of data are publicly available from yahoo and google. One can pluck them and do loads of research on it.

Till next time

Monday, July 18, 2016

Historical high

Hey Folk

Quick and dirty. Market are bullish. So many things happened and is going to happen but is ok. it is a BUY as of now.

This is Nasdaq Composite from yahoo finance

The line that I drawn is the historical high created in 2015. It is about 5200+. Now Nasdaq is about 5000. I do think that it can storm pass that historical high. As Nasdaq is suppose to be the leader of the leader of all market, one can use this as an example to calculate roughly where to profit take. The horizon for now is about 3-6mths. Where exactly will it land is a billion dollar question. This can only serve as a guide.

Taking bond and stock relationship as another guide. The bond market had make new high again and again. So if stock are lagger and it follow the bond movement, it may too have these phenomenon.

Another indicator, taking the week advance stock vs decline stock,( this indicator usually is use to pick the top) are showing that it is supporting stock up move.

Another indicator, VIX have show buy on the 3rd day after Brexit which I follow till today. VIX not showing anything else as of now.

Talking about S&P500, is a weekly uptrend but most of the technical indicator are showing divergent and overbought so becarful. But this do appear in extended up run.

However the run is Pls do exercise due diligence and proper money management.

quote from  Jesse Livermore 'The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight'
quote from Soros 'If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring'


Friday, July 1, 2016


Hey Folk

Britain have decided to exit the EU. It is the beginning of something new. Disintegration

More countries will follow suit what Britain have done and even within Britain, Scotland wants to stay in the EU. They too can hold a referendum to be independent and join the EU.

This will surely impact Euro dollar and Sterling directly for a period of time. So I think these 2 currency towards the USD will be suppressed. Despite central bank coming to intervene the market.

However, Britain and EU will take 2 years for the ‘divorce to be sealed’. New trade deals, regulation and legislation have to be discussed and implement. New border control law and etc. For now it is more of a political catastrophe than a financial catastrophe, however I do think that there may be certain hidden ‘financial catastrophe’ factors are building up, maybe worse than the magnitude of Lehman.

If you happen to have this book titled “one man view of the world” by Mr Lee which was publish about 5 years ago, he had pointed out that EU will fail eventually unless a great leader come about. When ask about in his life time who he consider a great leader he mentioned Deng XiaoPing.

I did go through the book again and I found many similarity of things that is happening now was mentioned in his book.

So how does it relate to our pocket??? Short Euro and GBP for the long term. Europe stock market will not be good either. My pick will be US and follow by China.

I also obvious that there are not much impact on Shanghai market when Brexit happen. So maybe the next run will be there.

With this exit, I think the FED will not be able to raise rate again. Bank of England said that they are going to do some easing this summer. So rate hike maybe delay again. Which i think is good for the stock market.

Conspiracy theory, FED Yellen is a democrats she is more in favour with Hillary than Trump. And Trump said he will replace her if he is elected. Maybe she want to boost the market up for Hillary.


Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Britain Exit or not? This Friday Black or not

Hey Folk

This Friday Britain decision to be in or out of EU.

So what if it is out. My analysis as follow

There are surely effect if Britain leave EU, probably that explain the sluggish performance of the England team as the players are very worried of their future.

So what would happen?

1)    The bank of England have assess the long term economic consequences of Briexit, it is a loss of 3000 to 5000 pound annually per household for the next 5 years before Britain settle down.

2)    The pound will surely depreciate very quickly. I think it would drop about 15% to more than 20% from current price. Which will bring the pound to be almost the same value as the Euro. That’s mean joining Euro despite out of EU. However one can argue that a devaluation will be helpful for the economy, but these effect now is less significant than what happen in 1992.

3)    The Bank of England do not have the ‘necessary ammunition’ to reduce interest rates as rates are low. I think there is very little the monetary policy can be done for these.

4)    Trading condition now have changed so devaluation of currency might not help England at all as compare what happen in 1992. This is mainly due to regulation and cross border issues.

However the reasons, people are driven by emotion at times rather than logical deduction. That why the other side of the Atlantic Ocean ban immigrants is a good idea and people likes it so much.

I do agree this is a golden opportunity to make a lot of money, or lose a lot of money. Like how Georges Soros broke the Bank of England in 1992. But according to him the planning, analysis and execution take 10 years.

Anyway it goes good luck to everyone.


Friday, May 27, 2016

300% per annual return investment

Hey Folk

Technology have increase competition. The way business are done is different. The above article is more like a CFD firm. Usually they don’t have commission, they earn from the deposit we bank into their account, they earn from the spread, some real bad ass CFD firm earn from the bet that is against your position. Good and bad at the end of the day.

The hard truth of investing.

A lot of people want to earn a lot from investing. The truth is if any money manager can achieve 10% per year for a extended period of time he/she is consider the real deal.

There are lots of system or method out there that generate much higher return say up to 60% to even 300% a year. But usually they do not last the test of time. My painful experience tells me that these system usually last for a good 1 month to a year before collapsing.

The simplest and easiest way of investing is a monthly contribution of the same amount of money or a lump sum into a very good assets class and wait. The next question is how to identify the good assets class. These take some skills to do that. Also with these fast changing environment, one have to be on top of the game to know when to change asset.

Investors usually make a mistake of believing in short term gain and not long term benefits. I had tried, tested and experience these part of investment that I agree there are system that give very high returns in a short period of time but these system have got very high risk and short period of effectiveness. Buying a long term investment and wait for 20 to 40 years like what Warren Buffet does is still the single best lazy man and idiot proof method of making money.


I do have many accounts that trade different instrument and different method.

Over the last few years, the short term trading method account do perform well in the initial period, and as time passed they will go under water. These are the account that give you the excitement, but do not give u the reward as time pass. The swing trading account perform fairly well. These are the account that usually ride a trend until it get exhausted.

I do have long term accounts, I buy SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and keep for a long time. These are soooo boring, but you will see it grow slowly. There are no excitement at all, no stress, just buying them when the market is right. I did a calculation, if you buy a 10k amount and the instrument rise at the rate of 8% per year. In 40 years you will have a value of 21 times your capital.


Friday, May 20, 2016

Rate raise Alert

Hey Folk

Rate raise alert again. The Fed had say that most likely they will raise the rate in June. The same condition must be met for rate raise, they are inflation and jobs.

I am not going to predict if it going to raise the rate eventually in June, I really do not know if that is really going to happen or are they just trying to prepare the market. The job of a trader is to read and understand current situations then act on it and not trying to predict the future. So let not speculate about all these.

The situation now for stock market is still short term downtrend, long term up trend. You can choose to stay at the side line for now until things are more clear to buy again.

The above chart predicts the move of Gold. The chart is in weekly. It will not tell the magnitude but duration of the direction. The chart show the relationship between gold and bond price inverted.

These are some interesting tools to share. During my research I manage to get them out. Again these are not timing indicators, it just tell us what to expect in the near future. As much as I cant predict, but there is certain intermarket relationship that can tell us some stories. Market is moved by conditions and not charts.