Friday, January 23, 2015

Weekly update 23 Jan

Hey Folk


Here we go again after a long break from posting. Trades are done. Let review what happen

ECB say rate unchanged, but 60bn bond purchase per month till Sept 2016. QE traditionally will spur stock market to move higher. So i guess the stock market is moving higher. In fact the rest of the world are doing QE one form or the other, only the US had stopped. So naturally, the US will again resume the leader of the world and the safe heaven and their USD will appreciate while the rest depreciate. 
Next week is FOMC meeting. 

Review from last week trades:

Took profit too early on S&P500 

current open position

Gold Long

This coming week

Gold - The trend is turned into a uptrend. 

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. However, i guess now is a period of no one dare to long and no one dare to short.

Stock -  Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.
China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Beware of dead cat bounce

cheers folk

Saturday, December 27, 2014

Weekly update 27 Dec

Hey Folk

Here we go again

Review from last week trades:

Took some profit on China A50 and holding on to some

Took Full profit on GbpUsd
Long S&P500

current open position

China A50
S&P500

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downLet see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. It is good for the economy in the long run for low oil price. 

Stock -  Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.
China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. 

cheers folk

Saturday, December 20, 2014

Weekly update 20 Dec China and America

Hey Folk

Here we go again

China the awaken dragon

Govt in China is cleaning up their own backyard in term of vices, corruption etc. They too are making their finance sector more robust at the same time open up their currency. These will only attract the already popular place for business. More people will want to go into this place.

At the same time alot of dealings with countries already by-pass using USD as the medium of exchange. In fact they deal in their own country's currency.

China had also become the world number 1 economy. Not just that but the biggest importer, which mean they are buying. 

All these will fuel the stock market of China that have been poor from 2008 till present. The stock market have awaken and is into the bull. Now it is a young bull ( a promising calf )

Under President Xi leadership, i think he would architect and create, reform, refurbish the country.

America still the big bro

Still the leader of the world and the big bro. Of course as a big bro, there are alot of things that you cannot dont care. If there is fighting here or there, there are some siblings who are sick or etc the big bro have to be there. These inevitable will make more friends or make more enemies. With these in mind, they are also trying to measure and balance the relationship with China.

When you are still a big bro and had performed as a bog bro, you give people the assurance. So in this juncture when there is any turbulence, investor still prefer the US.

US stock market will go higher and USD will go higher as well.
This will lead to currency war. (Elaborate on other posting in future)

Review from last week trades:

Took some profit on China A50 and holding on to some

Took Full profit on Usdpy
Long S&P500

current open position

China A50
S&P500

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downLet see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. It is good for the economy in the long run for low oil price. 

Stock -  Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.
China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. 

cheers folk

Sunday, December 14, 2014

Weekly update 14 Dec

Hey Folk

Here we go again

Very rocky week, some of my positions are deep into the money and then it swing and hit the stop lost. There are no entry signal base on my technique for this week, thus no trade was done. 

Review from last week trades:

Took profit on GBP 
Took profit on stock indices however some later position got stop out
Stop out in Gold

current open position

None

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downLet see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. It is good for the economy in the long run for low oil price. 

Stock -  Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.
China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. 

cheers folk

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Weekly update 6 Dec China Surpass US, Stock market view

Hey Folk

Here we go again

China have surpass USA as the world biggest economy. This is measure by GDP. They also become the largest importer of the world. That means they are purchaser too. 
In my blog 2 years ago, i did mention that to keep RMB and buy china market. Honestly i have not being looking at China market for awhile, it is time to look at them. 
Investor that have invested in unit trust into China fund will benefit too. This market is a bull and it is a young bull. It have an element of wild ride too. So sit tight

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market. Took profit on some of the positions in the stock market and establish new positions. 
I am right on the Eur, Gbp, Aud, Nzd as well. Took profit on most of them. 
I am right on gold as well.

current open position

Long stock market
Short GBP
Short Gold

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downLet see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. Perhaps $63.50/barrel is a very strong support as of now. It is good for the economy in the long run for low oil price. 

Stock - Break up higher again. Stay long. Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.
China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Setup formed and shorted them.

cheers folk

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Crude oil plunge

Hey folk

crude oil have plunge so much on 27 Nov.
OPEC decided not to cut production.

What i can think of is
1) OPEC want to make shale oil production within the US less competitive. It will also affect competitiveness in other non crude oil as well.
2) OPEC no longer control the market price of oil. They do not have the monopoly of it anymore, thus price cannot be dictated anymore.
3) Weaker global economy suppress demand.

We had the lows in 2009 which is about 35 per barrel.So that is something that we can have reference on.

I think crude may fall further.
i did not catch this wave as my technique do not allow me to do that.

Low crude price is good for the economy. Things are cheaper. We would not see the effect so fast but slowly we will see them. Also use your imagination to think which are the industries that benefit most from these low crude price environment.


Thursday, November 27, 2014

Weekly update 27 Nov Bond

Hey Folk

Here we go again

This will be done earlier as i am going to travel out of the country for awhile. So it is as of Thurs 27 Nov. Anyway it is Thanksgiving day today. Have fun.

Not so good news/data streaming out from the US yesterday night. Stock market came off and then climb up again. Market are expected to be slow due to holiday season. 

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market. 
Still holding on to long positions. 
Did not do any other trades as they do not fulfilled my entry rules

current open position

Long stock market

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downLet see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.Gold indeed is trying very hard to stage a rebound. Watch it!!

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. OPEC meeting apparently have no impact of the price of oil. 

Stock - Break up higher again. Stay long. Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed. However seems like a rebound is already happening. 

Bonds - Buy in Bonds. Moving up as well. It is not usual that bonds move along with stock but it is because of the prolong low interest environment and cheap money. So Bonds move along with stock market now.

cheers folk