Monday, January 9, 2012

Flat to downside

Hey folk

I think we are going to be flat to downside from now. My indicators are mix in equity indices.

No sign to long or short yet. But most probably a short signal is coming soon.

Cheers

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Bias in the market.

Hey folk

Do you know that there are certain bias on days of the week, months and also first day of every month in the S&P500??

If you tabulate the data, to buy on the close of the last day of the month and sell on the close of the first day of the month, there are almost 60% you made money. Probably the 401K or pension funds entering the market at that point of time.

The prefer buy day at the open and hold to the close for the week are Monday, tuesday.

The rest sort it out yourself.

Monday, January 2, 2012

Performance of Some Indices

Show the performance of some of the indices performance from 2010 to 2011

Dow Jones Ind up 5.5%
NASDAQ Down 1.8%
S&P500 Flat

STI Down 17.5%
HSI Down 20%

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Forecast of 2012

Hi folk

The forecast of 2012, are base on seasonal trend, cycles, and chart pattern. However, i would not show any chart here, just the explanation only.

USD would be the safe heaven currency as Europe economy are still very uncertain. Asia like India, china too
are having lesser export because of what happen in the West.

So investor would rather put their money in a place where chance of default is almost zero, which is the USD.

Equity wont be a good option as the economy is uncertain, Gold is a good bet but with USD going higher gold price will be hammered. Moreover, there wont be interest given even if you have gold.
Bonds is also a good bet but as US try to shake up the economy, coupon from bonds will remain low.
Dont have to consider bonds in Europe, they are at risk of default.

USD have been moving in inverse relation to the stock market.
So if USD get stronger the stock market get weaker.
Until a day when everything ia back to norm, is when you see USD move along with the equity market.

For the seasonal chart on Equity market, in detail we will see slow up move or even side way movement in beginning of 2012, then a top in Mar, then market falling till abt jun/jul, a rebound then fall again to oct forming a lower low. Then the election rally.

Note that there are too much govt intervention in the market these few years. They can defiant all odds.
But one day the market will be immune to these and would not react to any intervention.
Maybe the election rally will be started by QE3.


Let see where we end on 30 dec 2011. Most likely we will end the same at the end of 2012.

It is a waste that in Singapore market there are not or even no public available data that can be extracted to have these study.
So stocks in SG tend to be harder to forecast.

Gold in my opinion will mimic what happen in the 1970s-80s. A down move and then stagnant for years then pick up again. I can be totally
wrong about this.

Cheers. Have a good 2012 ahead. Wish all of you Good Wealth, Good Health, Good Romance. Happy trading and good luck.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Rally

Hey folk

I think we will be having a slight pull back. Then a rally again.

Stay tune.

We are right now in a situation where alot of asset classes are in sync. Currency, equity, Energy, metal. They are all in sync movement.

So if you short equity, you should also be shorting currency. But having said that you are also expose to more risk.

Saturday, November 5, 2011

I am back!!

Hey folk

I am back. I was too busy trying to develop, back test and used some new technique for trading this few months. Well all said and i have done them.

My stand are still the same and clear. We are moving higher till about 1st Q of 2012. Then we may have a long term down trend.

Let us go through what has happen. EU wish to increase the funds of EFSF to 1 Trillion. They would need to look for countries to invest in their debt. They are looking at India, Brazil, Russia and China. The only country that have the financial power to get the debt is China. We are talking about 56Billion Euro. However, China have the experience of the US when they bought US debt. US started with the QE, which make the currency depreciate alot. So China may not help them at all.

Greece oh Greece. The whole meeting and aid are for Greece and some other countries that belong to the PIGS, but Greece said teh day before yesterday that they wanted a referendum to see if they want to be in the EU, then the next day the referendum is cancelled. This show there are split in political view within the govt of Greece and things may not be solved that easily.

These are all the blocks to prevent growth and stability of the world economy. They need to be solved, however i do not think that they can resolve them fast and easy.

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Events coming up

Hey folk

There are lots of events coming up this week as this week is the earning season. Moreover there are many other things as well.


Here are some of the important news as well as on the 13 Oct JP morgan are announcing result