Saturday, November 22, 2014

Weekly update 22 Nov Economy vs Stock Market

Hey Folk

Here we go again


The start of the week we saw the currency market not behaving as their norm. Stock market was sideways. 
There are many news coming out.
FOMC minutes, Draghi wish to say something and many more. Indeed, Draghi say it will do what it takes to lift inflation. Which mean more stimulus.
Japan has also said that they have slide into a recession, stimulus to continue and also early election.
Just yesterday, China have lower interest rate. And the world goes wild. It send many instrument like oil, gold and the stock markets all over to goes high.At press time as i am writing, europe market is up 2.5%.
Everywhere seems to have certain stimulus coming out of their bag now except the US. They are talking about increase rate.

I think the US are recovering. But it is recovering very slowly. When i said this, it is just talking about the economy and not the stock market. 
Are stock market and economy related??? They are, but to a certain extend. Stimulus in the economy because the economy is weak. It is like an artificial life support system. But stimulus will boost the stock market. 
See the QEs US had made, it created a rally never before in history. Thus i do think that there will be rally in all the stock market as well. Another thing to rise is the US dollar.
Ummmm wait, so economy is getting better? More jobs? Pay increase?? Nope i doubt that will happen.

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market. Profited some position as market rises. Entered long into S&P500 at 3 different price.
I am wrong on Gbp 
Nothing for Gold, oil and other currency

current open position

Long stock market

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. Let see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue.

Stock - Break up higher. Stay long. Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed. 

cheers folk

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Stock market upward bias or down side bias???? Special article

Hey Folk

This is a addition article for this week.

Let see the chart first to believe it.
https://www.google.com/finance

Click on the link. Search all the stock market indices in the world.
S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, DAX, FTSE, STI, HSI, SSE, Nikkei etc etc etc

Except for Nikkei, since the start of that stock market. The current price is higher than the start.
Did you see that??

Let see them in more details

By the look of the eyes, do you realise that there are more up in term of period than down. Mean that more often than not the stock market are moving up than down.

Next, let see into more details. On every financial crisis, (1970, 1987,1997, 2001, 2007-8 ) the recovery is always higher than the last peak. Which overall suggest that the stock market are moving higher.

There are many reasons to these and many ways to test if the upward bias theory is true. However, i would not like to go into them as this article would be a thesis. See for yourself. See to believe.

We can conclude that stock market are upward bias. This is especially true for stock indices. So spend more time on looking for buys rather than sells. i had also written an article like this before in May.

Holding on to stock investment is good. but provided they are of good fundamental. Honestly, this is the hardest thing to determine. that is why i am always in the indices rather than individual stock. Dollar cost averaging approach is a good way too to invest.

That all

Weekly update15 Nov 2014 Crude oil

Hey Folk

Here we go again

Alot of report on crude oil this week. To me it is a political game as well as perhaps it is trying to reflect that fundamentally the economy is not doing well. 
Political is because of Russia and the Middle East. The other more worrying part is the fundamental of the economy, if oil price stay very low mean there is no demand. Inflation wont go up. QE and low interest rate environment will stay. Then soon deflation will set in. These are very bad for anything that exist.

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market, oil, Gbp, Yen
I am wrong on Euro
I did not go into Aud, Nzd, Cotton and Gold

current open position


Long stock market

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. On Friday again, it had a big  up day. Let see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue.

Stock - Current price is somehow resisted. It is still in a uptrend. So let see if there is a dips. If a dips happen, i would prefer to add more position on the long side. 

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed. The weakness of dollar on friday create a better setup for the other currency. Until the trend change i will stay short on these risk currency.

cheers folk

Saturday, November 8, 2014

Currency sell down, Gold

Hey Folk

Here we go again

i would really try to do this on a weekly basis.

Currency have really sold down this week especially the Yen. Most have a up day on Friday. but the overall trend are still down.

Review from last week trades:

I am right on on all the trades Sell Yen, Eur, Nzd and Buy stock indices. Bingo!!!!!!

current open position

Long stock indices

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downAfter Friday big up day, gold may stage a rebound. Let see more closely the movement of this metal.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue.

Stock - Continue to move higher

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed.

Soft - Cotton maybe can be a good candidate to long. The trend is down.

cheers folk


Sunday, November 2, 2014

This week look for

Sell 

Eur
Yen
Nzd

Buy 

Stock indices esp US indices
Alright Folk

After so many years, i decided to kick this thing back to life again.

It would not be a frequent update, it would be more of a weekly thing. On broader picture.

So.... here we go

Stock market

the whole world think the market is going to die, it the end of the world. there is ISIS, there is ebola, there is tension in Middle east, tension in Russia...blah blah blah

The market is not going down after so much episode.  My take is the market is still moving higher.

Gold

These precious metal may not be as precious. Yes it may have a bounce up before it really goes down again.

Dollar

Dollar will get stronger as compare to all the risk currency. Yen is going down, Euro as well.

Monday, January 9, 2012

Flat to downside

Hey folk

I think we are going to be flat to downside from now. My indicators are mix in equity indices.

No sign to long or short yet. But most probably a short signal is coming soon.

Cheers