Let do some stock indices comparison.
First we have the Shanghai Composite (SSE) VS S&P500
You can see that SSE have a better performance than S&P500. If you invest 10 years ago 1 Sept 2006 till 31 Aug 2016, you will profit 90% for SSE and 68% for S&P500.
SSE perform better than the S&P500, but note that the new high created in 2007 in the SSE is not taken out. So it is not a perpetual uptrend yet unlike the S&P500.
S&P has taken the time of test to perform for many decades. You can look it up from google. SSE is a relatively new market and have not perform so well too. Looking back into 2000 till now, SSE usually have a ‘burst’ movement which mean they will have extreme expansion for a couple of years and then slump for many years in other words is extreme volatile. But for these 10 years, if you invest in SSE, you almost double your investment. Maybe they will be the next star.
Let see the next comparison
S&P500 VS Hang Seng index (HSI)
HSI is performing at 35% while S&P500 is at 68%
The last comparison
S&P500 ETF ( SPY) VS Straits time index ETF (EWS)
Why ETF? There are no data on google for STI. So I got to use ETF. Note that ETF can be directly invested and have charges, thus the return for the same period is lower.
For 10 years, SPY have 67.9% while EWS have 19.9%. I am quite sad about this as Singapore market is always such a lagger.
Zoom into the picture in the year 2015 and 2016, when the SPY come off abit, the EWS elaborate it but the other way up is not like that.
If you have a chance to google it yourself these 2 ETF and compare them to the maximum duration, you will realize that STI is always lagging. These pictures above take reference from 1 Sept 2006 as the start of comparison. So you might see certain expansion that is exaggerating. If you compare them longer, you realize S&P are always the leader.
Another thing about the stock market are they are correlated. They move in synchronous.
However only S&P right now created historical new high but the rest of the other indices have not. This show the strength of S&P and the weakness of others.
Jobs data was bad yesterday, rate raise anot 2 weeks later? Stock market maintain the pose.
For Gold Bug, I still do not think gold will go back up, probably it will rebound to 1500. But still I am bearish on Gold