Sunday, December 14, 2014

Weekly update 14 Dec

Hey Folk

Here we go again

Very rocky week, some of my positions are deep into the money and then it swing and hit the stop lost. There are no entry signal base on my technique for this week, thus no trade was done. 

Review from last week trades:

Took profit on GBP 
Took profit on stock indices however some later position got stop out
Stop out in Gold

current open position

None

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downLet see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. It is good for the economy in the long run for low oil price. 

Stock -  Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.
China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. 

cheers folk

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Weekly update 6 Dec China Surpass US, Stock market view

Hey Folk

Here we go again

China have surpass USA as the world biggest economy. This is measure by GDP. They also become the largest importer of the world. That means they are purchaser too. 
In my blog 2 years ago, i did mention that to keep RMB and buy china market. Honestly i have not being looking at China market for awhile, it is time to look at them. 
Investor that have invested in unit trust into China fund will benefit too. This market is a bull and it is a young bull. It have an element of wild ride too. So sit tight

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market. Took profit on some of the positions in the stock market and establish new positions. 
I am right on the Eur, Gbp, Aud, Nzd as well. Took profit on most of them. 
I am right on gold as well.

current open position

Long stock market
Short GBP
Short Gold

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downLet see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. Perhaps $63.50/barrel is a very strong support as of now. It is good for the economy in the long run for low oil price. 

Stock - Break up higher again. Stay long. Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.
China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Setup formed and shorted them.

cheers folk

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Crude oil plunge

Hey folk

crude oil have plunge so much on 27 Nov.
OPEC decided not to cut production.

What i can think of is
1) OPEC want to make shale oil production within the US less competitive. It will also affect competitiveness in other non crude oil as well.
2) OPEC no longer control the market price of oil. They do not have the monopoly of it anymore, thus price cannot be dictated anymore.
3) Weaker global economy suppress demand.

We had the lows in 2009 which is about 35 per barrel.So that is something that we can have reference on.

I think crude may fall further.
i did not catch this wave as my technique do not allow me to do that.

Low crude price is good for the economy. Things are cheaper. We would not see the effect so fast but slowly we will see them. Also use your imagination to think which are the industries that benefit most from these low crude price environment.


Thursday, November 27, 2014

Weekly update 27 Nov Bond

Hey Folk

Here we go again

This will be done earlier as i am going to travel out of the country for awhile. So it is as of Thurs 27 Nov. Anyway it is Thanksgiving day today. Have fun.

Not so good news/data streaming out from the US yesterday night. Stock market came off and then climb up again. Market are expected to be slow due to holiday season. 

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market. 
Still holding on to long positions. 
Did not do any other trades as they do not fulfilled my entry rules

current open position

Long stock market

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is downLet see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.Gold indeed is trying very hard to stage a rebound. Watch it!!

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. OPEC meeting apparently have no impact of the price of oil. 

Stock - Break up higher again. Stay long. Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed. However seems like a rebound is already happening. 

Bonds - Buy in Bonds. Moving up as well. It is not usual that bonds move along with stock but it is because of the prolong low interest environment and cheap money. So Bonds move along with stock market now.

cheers folk





Saturday, November 22, 2014

Weekly update 22 Nov Economy vs Stock Market

Hey Folk

Here we go again


The start of the week we saw the currency market not behaving as their norm. Stock market was sideways. 
There are many news coming out.
FOMC minutes, Draghi wish to say something and many more. Indeed, Draghi say it will do what it takes to lift inflation. Which mean more stimulus.
Japan has also said that they have slide into a recession, stimulus to continue and also early election.
Just yesterday, China have lower interest rate. And the world goes wild. It send many instrument like oil, gold and the stock markets all over to goes high.At press time as i am writing, europe market is up 2.5%.
Everywhere seems to have certain stimulus coming out of their bag now except the US. They are talking about increase rate.

I think the US are recovering. But it is recovering very slowly. When i said this, it is just talking about the economy and not the stock market. 
Are stock market and economy related??? They are, but to a certain extend. Stimulus in the economy because the economy is weak. It is like an artificial life support system. But stimulus will boost the stock market. 
See the QEs US had made, it created a rally never before in history. Thus i do think that there will be rally in all the stock market as well. Another thing to rise is the US dollar.
Ummmm wait, so economy is getting better? More jobs? Pay increase?? Nope i doubt that will happen.

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market. Profited some position as market rises. Entered long into S&P500 at 3 different price.
I am wrong on Gbp 
Nothing for Gold, oil and other currency

current open position

Long stock market

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. Let see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue.

Stock - Break up higher. Stay long. Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed. 

cheers folk

Saturday, November 15, 2014

Stock market upward bias or down side bias???? Special article

Hey Folk

This is a addition article for this week.

Let see the chart first to believe it.
https://www.google.com/finance

Click on the link. Search all the stock market indices in the world.
S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, DAX, FTSE, STI, HSI, SSE, Nikkei etc etc etc

Except for Nikkei, since the start of that stock market. The current price is higher than the start.
Did you see that??

Let see them in more details

By the look of the eyes, do you realise that there are more up in term of period than down. Mean that more often than not the stock market are moving up than down.

Next, let see into more details. On every financial crisis, (1970, 1987,1997, 2001, 2007-8 ) the recovery is always higher than the last peak. Which overall suggest that the stock market are moving higher.

There are many reasons to these and many ways to test if the upward bias theory is true. However, i would not like to go into them as this article would be a thesis. See for yourself. See to believe.

We can conclude that stock market are upward bias. This is especially true for stock indices. So spend more time on looking for buys rather than sells. i had also written an article like this before in May.

Holding on to stock investment is good. but provided they are of good fundamental. Honestly, this is the hardest thing to determine. that is why i am always in the indices rather than individual stock. Dollar cost averaging approach is a good way too to invest.

That all

Weekly update15 Nov 2014 Crude oil

Hey Folk

Here we go again

Alot of report on crude oil this week. To me it is a political game as well as perhaps it is trying to reflect that fundamentally the economy is not doing well. 
Political is because of Russia and the Middle East. The other more worrying part is the fundamental of the economy, if oil price stay very low mean there is no demand. Inflation wont go up. QE and low interest rate environment will stay. Then soon deflation will set in. These are very bad for anything that exist.

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market, oil, Gbp, Yen
I am wrong on Euro
I did not go into Aud, Nzd, Cotton and Gold

current open position


Long stock market

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. On Friday again, it had a big  up day. Let see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue.

Stock - Current price is somehow resisted. It is still in a uptrend. So let see if there is a dips. If a dips happen, i would prefer to add more position on the long side. 

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed. The weakness of dollar on friday create a better setup for the other currency. Until the trend change i will stay short on these risk currency.

cheers folk