Tuesday, September 28, 2010

market update

The US dollar is being hammer. Which make the US dollar cheaper. Mean stock will move higher.Commodities will also move higher. Also the CRB index has sky rocket, notice that gold, silver, copper, platinum,etc wheat, soy bean, coffee, sugar, orange juice, lumber all have move higher, which in turn drive CRB index higher. However, oil have not participate in the up run yet. The last time CRB index move to these level is in 2008 where oil hit 145 / barrel.

I expect the market to come down in Rocktober as my 4 yr cycle and advance warning indicator tell me so. I may be wrong.then after rocktober it will rocket upwards...abt 10 to 15%...

Investing in funds, stock, futures, forex , options get ready for the exciting move.
For investment link plan holder, please get your funds switch to more of equities.(depend on your risk appetite)

happy trading

Saturday, September 25, 2010

Profit

Genting
I finally caught Genting on 13 Sept...The trading rule used is totally different.It response well to the break new high and buy rule.So i bought at 1.86 and sold it off on 21 Sept on 2.12...Profit sold

Cosco
15 Sept bought 1.69 still in position (break new high method)

So this are my trade ...very busy these 2 weeks...
Trading is a thinking business, the method i used in the past is not used here. Time change and method have to change.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Market outlook

Hey folk
been busy these weeks
my forecast is still the same as mention in previous posting. A drop will come in Rocktober...a rocking month.Indicators have signal that this would happen. It might not be. Nothing is 100%.
Then follow by a uptrend which will make the S&P500 index close at abt 1200 - 1250 by end of the year.Again no method of technique is 100%, so it might not happen.
If it blow off this head, the mkt is going north baby.

Those that hold position for quite sometime can consider liquid their position and re enter when after Rocktober.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Market up up up

The market is performing good.
But do remember to keep your greed check.
A trend is your friend but a stop is your best friend.
Keep your emotion out and put the stop in.Have a plan and the intention to trade the plan.
Never trade alone...trade with your friends or relative or whoever. discuss strategy.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Mkt update



Let me explain in details more on what i see in the market.The combination of different technical analysis to come to see a same picture.

On the chart is S&P500 daily bar. You can see a major head and shoulder (H&S) forming and there is H&S within H&S as seen with the red circle. Next there is a trendline that connecting the top and cut through the current price now. Also flat top produce market drop, now a flat top is formed.All these suggest that the market is going to come down.

However, if the market is able to breakout from the flat top, the trendline and most importantly the head (that circle in red)then a uptrend is happening.

I will update you guys on it. It is really exciting for me. The long term forecast still remain the same as stated in the previous posting

Friday, September 10, 2010

S&P500 prediction

There are books saying about the 7 years cycle which say that the market will rise for 7 years and go down for 7 years.
There are rumours saying about recession come every 10 years.
I spotted something pretty interesting quite long ago and wish to share that. It is the 4 years low or 4 years cycle.
Look at the S&P500 chart. Every 4 years it will put in a low. From (those in box)1986, 1990, 1994,1998,2002,2006, now 2010??
It may happen this time in Oct 2010.
Notice that everytime when it hit a low, the market will move up quite strongly.So we may expect a low in Oct 2010,then follow by a upward move. I think S&P500 will move up to 1200 to 1250 by end of this year.
As stock market are in sync, market like Singapore, Indonesia etc may have a similar effect too.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

GIC IPO

GIC expected to be trading on OCT 15.

GIC plans to sell 95% of the shares to institutional investors, with the remainder allocated to retail investors in Singapore

Trading record from Jul till Sept

Trading record from Jul till Today (Sept) (excluding futures)

Total trade 17
Winner 12
Lose 5

S&P500 and STI



S&P 500 a flat top is formed.Flat top produce market drop. Let see tonight if they can break out.



A double top is forming.If the US market have breakthrough tonight then maybe it STI would pull through.

PROFIT, PRofit.profit..WOOW

30 Aug Midas long 0.88 sell 08 Sep 0.93 profit
23 Aug indoagri long 2.27 sell 07 Sep 2.38 profit
31 Aug Cosco long 1.58 sell 08 Sep 1.61 profit

All 3 position on profit ..wooow

Why Financial Planning Part 2

Financial planning include the whole range of things. Alot of Singaporeans only regards it to insurance. It address a whole range of issue that affect our life at every different stage.

For example, when we are young and we are studying, we move up from primary, secondary, high school then University.If your parents had a education plan when you are young, then most likely you will graduate without a debt.Alot of time, some people will think that is 20 years down the road before my child go to Uni.They dint want to do anything now.They think that is so far away and by that time then think about it.As time pass, they still spend on their necessity, holidays, buy new car, etc.Bingo, your child will graduate in debt.By the time they think let do something, is either too late or they still do not have the money to do something. So planning is important.
Is like you wont dont plan for a marriage. How to buy house, wedding ceremony cost, honey moon cost etc.Then from there you will save up and try to achieve your aim.

Next alot of people wish to make quick money. Yes me too. But where would it lead you.Tomorrow, 1 week later, 1 months time or 1 year time.Quick money (legal money) from the financial market is possible. I am a trader and i know how.But no trader in the world can promise you that I can sure make $1million in a few years time.Larry William ( a reowned and famous futures trader turn $10k to $1 Million in a year).But he cant promise that it can happen always. Also making quick money from the market need skills. The shorter the time you want to make money the more skill you need.If you have been spending about 20 to 30 hours a week, thinking, pondering and looking at charts, well is possible.There is no short cut.Is hard work and to be serious in trading is like a business. You need to have strategy.Spend time in it.You spend 100% of your time chances of reward will be 100%.You spend 50% then chances of reward will be 50%.

So if you dont have skills and cant afford the time are you not going to do anything?You still need to plan for your retirement.Imagine you want to retire and you have not enough money, are you going to work at MacDonald?Or forgo your dreams of doing something and short change your life?Why not do something about it now.Then you will have ease of mind in retirement.Imagine you know that when age of 60 you would have x amount there ready for use.Would you feel more secure?Worst your children have to pay for your retirement or medical bill at that time.Then they may be in debt with their school loans. This make them harder to get marry, buy a house and carry on their own dream. Like i say in the previous posting, it is a vicious cycle.It will pass down ward to next generation.

Financial planning is in general the allocation or management of your income, to make them more efficient and to give your certain assurance in different stage of life or a life time.Unless you dont care about your life, then dont do financial planning.There are many components into it too. It not really about products.If look too much into products, I am sorry you are a short term viewer.Is about the planning, which even go into what stocks, ETF, funds etc to invest.How different product can work better, function better and compliment each other.How investment or protection can help in your retirement planning etc.

So think about it and act on it.Is about your life.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Why financial planning



The 1st block on the top is an individual life that a person have to encounter.
The investment portfolio is a block that generate active or passive income through out the life time of an individual.
The other 2 blocks show the liabilities/asset that a person most likely to encounter.

The 1st block is a sure thing in life. People will die and may get ill or disable. People would retire at some point of time. They also need education in their early stage of the life time or paying for their kids education. These are the must. The 1st block generally is a block that would cost a hugh amount for a person life time.
What to protect against?
Protection is the risk managment against death, disability and critical illness.
For death and disability
Have amount set aside for funeral cost, debts, expenses needed for individual and family member. In this way, family members would not have addition burden or liabilities in the event when a member of the family is unable to be self sufficient.
For critical illness
Have amount set aside for ongoing treatment and lump sum medical cost.In this way. family members would not have additional burden or liabilities in the event when a member of the family is unable to be self sufficient and need constant expenses.

The other 2 blocks are the expenses that would add burden/value-add the cash planning of the 1st block.These block also cost hugh amount to a person lifetime.The different is the 1st block is a sure to happen to an individual while the other 2 blocks are most likely to happen.

What make financial planning difficult is that all these block may not be mutually exclusive.They can happen together.This make the situation complicated and an individual to lose focus on the planning. Thus early planning give one the allowance to pre-empt, make adjustment and have adequate resources to tackle the issues.

So whatever happen to an individual will also cause the spouse, parents, next generation to be affected. If no proper planning is done, this would be a vicious cycle that keep rolling down from generation to generation.If a proper planning is done, the benefit would pass down from generation to generation too. Unless some event occur that would change the life. For eg, strike a big lottery ticket, lost all retirement money on casino, great entrepreneur is born, etc

Monday, September 6, 2010

one sad experience

I had some very sad experience with some of the people i met. Let just share 1 of them where he allow me to share

1)Freshly grad as a 1st class honour, everything is going for him. He got a good job and he have plans to settle down with his girlfriend that have been dated for a long time. As usual, I met him do a presentation on what I do, he know the importance of protection but not his priority at that time. He thought he is young and healthy.So he decided to take up the policy in Dec with me. However, just last week, he called me and ask me whether he can buy it right now. I say of course, it is better to buy 3 years early than 3 days too late. Then i ask him why you change your mind. He told me, he went for a check up by his company and have some bad news on his heart.He ask if he can be cover under that. Unfortunately, after the underwriting, he cant be cover if he have any illness related to his current condition.

He was soooo down. 25 year old 1st class honors and working in a prestige company and something happen to him.He ask my advise on what to do next.

Well, i tell him that u still carry on with your planning for protection and investment. Do not bcos your existing condition is not cover then all protection planning is neglected. This is a single point of failure assumption.Get protection to cover for all others things. So if those other things happen you will be prepare to face the financial problem involve. At the same time, i advise that he have to save up himself to address to the medical bills of the disease he is suffering.Maybe get his girlfriend to save up for him too. Discuss with his girlfriend about these, so you guys have a common ground of when to get marry( do you need to delay), change of ideal honeymoon trip, and also wedding gift etc...

Pretty sad and disheartening, it is also quite detrimental to him and his close one. Things happen to him, but his close one have to suffer with him too. Sometime i wonder, did i do my job well by trying to convince him in the earlier time when i met him?If so and he decide to take up the policy later, then maybe i would feel better.

Some 95% of the people

I spoke to many people whom wanted to start trading. I find something. They are all very enthu abt trading.Cos they wanna mk money. That a good reason to trade... but not over enthu.1st know the risk then the reward.If you can take the risk then the reward is yours.
Worst thing i found out, they allocate some cash for investing. None for protection.

When ask what if you lost all the cash u allocate for investing. They reply, we are working ...so can earn back the money and invest again....I love this answer man...This are the people that belong to the 95% and i really hope i know what they trade for everything...bcos is so easy for me to guess their thinking and more easy for the big players.These people are the one that constantly providing cash into the market. They work hard and donate them to thse smart mkt player...it is like they are working for the market...hahaha

So plssss....dont do such things.They are basing on hope and luck analysis. They are blinded by the reward of the market and risk to them is not significant.I rather these people put cash onto protection and at least they can get back cash value (which have higher interest than fix D and bank deposit) when old than donating their hard earn money to the market.

For investing, they do not have a plan. They do not have a protection plan and over all plan on their capital for investment.This applies to the same to their life.Which mean their life can be like their investment capital, vapourise, eat up by others.Worst thing they dont seem to mind.To be frank, these are the people that is needed by the financial market bcos they will provide cash for winner.These loser will earn money and get back again.It a vicious cycle. And i would like to say, it the same for life.No protection, no plan for life. When something strike you, you are going to pull your family member into the mess. Pulling down all their financial ability.Then they have to work harder to fill the gap for the next few years.If you have no plan at all, then basically you dont know where you are heading.Maybe working for life, cant retire,furthest country visited is Thailand,paying house loan for life, your next generation is going to be like that too, etc

If financial planning ( not just about protection) is not important, than investing is bound to fail, Even i give you a million, without planning that million is nothing.Nobody plan to fail, but if you dont plan you will fail.And that is your life that you are failing.

Think thru, calculate, chart out, define your financial objective, talk more about money with people,plan and execute...

Friday, September 3, 2010

Investing psychology

For all beginner that are doing trading and investing in the stock, forex or futures or options, there is one thing that you sure have to find out yourself: that is who you are and what type of trader or investor you are.Nobody can help you on that, you have to find out yourself.

Well first of all, if you invest or trade and find yourself waking up alot of time in the middle of the night thinking how the Dow is doing then you are taking too much risk.You cant concentrate on your work, you get easily agitated etc. This are clear sign you are taking too much risk.

However, if you find yourself able to sleep totally and the next morning you wake up and still do the same thing without even a thought about what happen mean you are either ignorant or too comfortable.For example, the stock has drop too much and you decide to tell yourself let just write off this. This is not healthy.

If you are serious enough, what you will be thinking of when you wake up is what to do? How doest the market match with the research that you made yesterday night?What to buy what to sell?How the market going to be like today?Does it coincide with the big picture?etc.Like i say many time, it is a thinking business.It is never easy money. Is just that alot of people assume it is easy money that why only 5% of the people make money and 95% lost money. And the 5% earn all the 95% people money.That how the game work.

The worst mistake and most common mistake that most people commit is that their investment horizon change when they invest.
For eg: Ah huat see Genting is moving up so fast.But he know that the market as a whole is going down, so he thght that he would give it a miss.Then he heard his friend, uncle, auntie earn money from Genting.
He observe the 2nd day hoping that Genting would come down alittle then he would buy. It dint, it went up higher.
So he decided that it been up so furiously for 2 days it wont go up anymore. He is firm that he would not buy.
On Third day, it went up very fast. He cant resist and he buy Genting at 1.68.He thought that he can make a killing within the intra day. Immediately the stock plunge. Down $0.16. He is panic.
But he is determine that the stock will go up.He change his investment period to the next day.Genting dint went up, the third day too. The fourth and the fifth day too dint went up.
His investment timeframe from intraday is prolong to 5 days.
Fortunately 11 days later, Genting is alive again.It went up to 1.78 today.Then now he face a dilemma to sell or not to sell. If it go up and i sell, how?Eventually he sold it. Making a handsome $0.10 profit.He thought that this way could let him make money.So he use the same way to buy other stocks.Guess what happen to him at the end.

If you make money and you dont know why, you have to be cautious.There is no free lunch and there is no free money.It can be just a beginner luck.Ah Huat uses hope and luck analysis and he is too emotion driven.He cant resist the temptation that people make money and he dint, and he think that this way is correct and he wish to repeat this way of making money again. Have a plan and have the intention to follow the plan while investing. If you say, is like that you cant control your emotion when investing, please try to do so. If not, you must as well donate money to the charity.And what make you so determine that the market will go up. Are you controlling??And once you buy a stock from the market you totally lost control. What you can do is watch, sell, or buy more and of course ignore.

Investing in any form of financial market is risky. It can lead to substantial financial loses. Have a risk capital ready for investing. Which mean to say those cash set aside for investing are cash that need not use to pay bills.They are excess cash. This should not even affect your saving.You must prepare to lose all the cash use for investing.

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

bond & stock and my position, Genting and mkt update

Bond down stock up...this relationship is presented again over in today market.

i was too busy to really update what my position i have for the laast wk n this wk as of now:
here we go
30 Aug Midas long 0.88
23 Aug indoagri long 2.27 ( i made a mistake to take the trade the last time,tt one that i cut lost in 17 aug, it is pure fully human error)
31 Aug Cosco long1.58

Genting i dint buy, is a powerful stock once again. up 0.11 cent today. Congrate to anyone that have it..wooow...

Market update!!!
The market is like a one day up one day down now. Today the market give a strong up move which if it continue will mean a temporary uptrend.This may sustain for the next 5 weeks. This is the 15 week of the 17 week cycle. 17 week cycle is a reference is not 100% accurate and is an average. Bonds (30 yr Tbond) has drop pretty much today this reinforce that stock are moving up.