Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Events coming up

Hey folk

There are lots of events coming up this week as this week is the earning season. Moreover there are many other things as well.


Here are some of the important news as well as on the 13 Oct JP morgan are announcing result

Sunday, October 2, 2011

Market update

Hey folk

Let me sum up what had happen in this month. We witness a history moment on the 20-21 Sep where FED decide to have operation twist. This have set the market falling as investors are fear of the weak market condition. To add matter worst, Greece and Euro region spark off fear of possible default.

Operation twist - is the selling of short term treasury and buy long term treasury so as to lower the yield of the treasury. So as to keep loans rate cheap. This effort would continue to try to simulate the economy by allow cheaper borrowing. USD which is the safe heaven currency of the world appreciate immediately against all the other currency. The equity and the commodities market at the same time fell due to fear of the still weak economy. However, with the strong USD and the low commodities price, it is a natural simulates package for the world economy as the cost of biz is lower.

Next week we will see a week full of important data and announcement. Monday is peaceful while Tuesday you see Trichet, Ben, Raskin giving speech, then the week to come are ISM data, non farm payroll etc. This will affect the currency market very much as well

Technical analysis point of view

I could see from the seasonal and the 5 week advance indicators are trending lower for this week. By mid or even end of Oct that the market will rally. Commitment of traders for most commodities have saw increase in long position by the commercial, however equity market have not show very significant increase in the commercial buying activities.

The USD and the equity market still is trying to form a relation now. In the past few years, USD up equity market down. By right in a normal economy is USD up equity market up. So I have notice that there are some struggle now between the USD and the equity market to establish the normal economy relationship.

Also we are still in a big bear flag for most equity indices. The triangle may not formed. So i do expect the equity market to be weak next week.