Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Mkt update

Hey folk

We witness the upmove of the market in the US yesterday night. The indices closed at almost the day high for the transport, Industries and the S&P500.

The Emini S&P500 futures Jun 2011 contract have close at 1317, which is higher than the previous day high if 1315. If it successfully move up higher again today, then probably we are going to see the market moving higher.

Asia market have show some weakness during the last few days, but is soaring as of now. When they all break out the recent high with conviction, my guess is the market is heading the way up.

I have sold some of my position in the previous days but not all.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

How do I learn all these fundamental stuff??

I got a discussion with a few colleague that ask me how i understand all these economic things eg, what is the credit crisis, what happen in 1987, how hot money affect us, why SGD is getting stronger and the other countries reduce interest rate, China is having inflation why invest in china??etc when even i am not a economic student.

Is abit hard to explain though, probably i am very interested in all these and i read up alot. As i dont really have a formal degree on these, i have to do lots of research on it. When you do research, usually you find lots of useless information. But this useless information can be link with other article and gradually form a picture and please infer more to form larger picture. I went for exchange where i took all finance modules, this is where i learn more and match all the things i learned together.

The key thing is get interested. This is how i know the fundamental on the macro side. Eg. Spore do not use interest rate to curb inflation, we use our SGD, while US, EU they use interest rate. The lower the interest rate it promote more lending and thus simulate the economy and eventually create inflation inwhich interest rate have to be raise to curb inflation and on and on. It is a cycle, like a sine wave.

If you wish to shorten the process, i recommend you read the 'Hard truth to keep Singapore going'. The interview with our MM. Awesome book. MM highlight all these in a few paragraph, he really is a database and lots of experience. He practically know everything,every details till the bit. He sum up the culture,tradition, history, economy and politic of US, EU, China, India etc. No doubt he is so much well respected around the world.

If you can, grab the book. Also please read lots of newspaper especially on the biz section. Because the real fundamental analysis is so broad, you need to know everything. I do not know lots of them, i admit i only know so little. The more you know will actually lead you to know what you dont know.Gd luck

Mkt update

Hey Folk

Right now the US mkt is still in the positive territory. The trend for upmove is intact. However not that strong.

I expect asia mkt to weaken for this few days.

But not to worry, we are not going into a great drop of a a hundreds points in STI as of the current situation.

Some people ask me how i can guess the direction of the market.... Is Technical analysis. Fundamental analysis really tell you how sound the company you are buying. Yes this is absolutely important. But it cant tell you the current direction or even the precision of the price. It can only say, it good and it going up in the future.

Technical analysis tell trend and can pin point the exact buying price and exit price. Both analysis are real important and useful if you know how to use them well.

I am a pure Technical analysis trader and i do use fundamental as a reinforce on my technical analysis. Is good to know both analysis, but is hard to master both at the same time.

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Mkt update

Hey folk

The US market close higher yesterday. But you are seeing some smaller rate of change. The Dow Jones Ind hav also rest on to a resistance point. Dow Jones Transport too, have hit a resistance level.

Either the market is going to fire all the way up or we are entering into a dips (which will eventually formed the inverse head and shoulder that will allow the market move higher).

We are some how similar to what happen in the 2003 period. If the govt around the world can control the inflation well, Europe region pass the stress test, US growing, then we are back on track for rally.

Nth is 100%

Friday, March 25, 2011

Mkt update

Hey folk

We see a week of upmove this week in all major indices.

From the chart, i dont see any sign of a pull back yet. But if you have not buy into the market, please do not buy.Stay at the side line.

How to use W%,RSI

I would like to share how to use W% and RSI in this post.

Well for me I usually use W%, I think it is really reliable. However, you sure need other indicator, chart pattern and price action to justify the movement.

W%

It is created by Larry William, one of a great trader that i know. Williams' %R is an effective momentum indicator that measures overbought/oversold levels.
It ranges between 0% and 100% .
The 0% indicating overbought and
100% - the oversold stocks.
W%R measures the closing price in relation to the recent low/high range.
I usually use the upper limit and lower limit at -25% and -75% respectively. When the signal head above -75%, it mean a buy signal, while if the signal head below -75% is mean a sell signal.

RSI is almost the same as the W%, but the 0% indicate oversold and the 100% indicate overbought.

Mkt update

Hey folk

Leader of all US indices Dow Jones Transport:



See the explanation in the picture. Also there may be a inverse head and shoulder in the making. Which call for upward movement.

If you look at all the other indices Dow Jones Ind, S&P500, the Emini S&P500 (futures), the STI, all of them may have a inverse head and shoulder in the making.So when it is form, more upside would be coming.

Wednesday, March 23, 2011

Some history of commodities market

In the past there is no such thing as a commodities market, you bring a wagon of corn, you bring a wagon of wheat and what not, everyone at different places selling the same thing at very different prices for different quantity.

So people decided we have to regulate them. So they bring all of the corn seller, and all of the wheat seller and what not together in a centralize market place. Then they set a price for certain quantity. In this way, the buyer can purchase their stuff with a regulated price.

Then speculator come in the market as they can see if there are some dry season and the production for eg wheat is little, the price of wheat sky rocket. So the speculator, take the advantage, they enter the market for the purpose of making pure money. So the commodities market are actually not meant for speculator. It is meant for people who needs these item. But the speculator are here to provide liquidity, if someone needs to sell, the speculators are there to buy from them.

Just some sharing

Mkt update

Hey folk

Gold: I guess my posting on gold a few months back is not true anymore. Gold is heading the way north. It will be moving up another 1000 buck per ounce.

US mkt As we witness the little drop yesterday, which create a inside bar (which mean the market is confuse of the direction). Stay at the side line if you are working on intra day trade. Now you see the market still flirting around the positive and negative zone. As posted yesterday of the resistance still hold. In the short term, there is for sure lots of up n down. My forecast till end of the year and end of April still hold.

Asia mkt: Pretty mix here. STI went up, HSI is in a inside bar. So if you are have accumulate in the last few days, that good. If not, dont buy now.

I am still holding on cosco, indoagri, genting. These are stocks that i bought a few days ago or last week.

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Just hold and wait????

When the market is not doing good, i will receive alot of phones call or txt or emails. To me, that is ok, i would like to help as many people as possible.

But what i cant stand most is they do not want to obey to their cut lost price and ask me my opinion. To be frank, sometimes I just have to say, well just hold and wait for it to move up. Bcos that the only thing i can say, I know sometime when i say that is totally not true. Just to give a pleasant answer.

Alot of time, we do filter information. You like to hear things that you want to hear and filter away things that you dont. When the stock that you hold are down, you would like to hear someone that agreed with you on the same note. But that is not the truth.

That is extremely true, as most of the people would not like to accept the hard cold cruel fact in life, this will also bring that habit into stocks investing. That it.

As i said, get your long term financial plan done, you feel more secure. This safe feeling or thinking will also be brought to your short term or medium term trading. You will be more confident or secure.

Mkt update

Hey folk

Beautiful move today.

The US mkt expect some profit take. (not a big drop). Dow jones industries 12050 the 1st resistance, follow by 12220s. Probably by april, the Dow will reach 12600s

Dow Transport: 5290s the 1st resistance, follow by end of april, probably 5760s

S&P500: 1330s the 1st resistance, follow by end of april, probably 1400s

STI: 3030s the 1st resistance, follow by 3060s.

Nth is 100%.

Nikkei

Hey folk

Nikkei is coming back up. As typing is trading at 9524.

Why you need to get the long term financial plan right first

What do Long term Financial Plan mean??
It mean your retirement, your insurance. This are the pillar of the pyramid. You get them right, you get them strong, if anything happened to you, you got money, you can come back again.
For Singaporean, average protection coverage is about 500k.
Retirement needs is approx 2 Mil, which can last for 15 years at 5k permth.

You get these right and the short term or medium additional income from investment or endowment plan will supplement the shortfall bit by bit.

Then Why long term first?
Imagine, if you trade on stocks now without any long term financial plans. 2 scenario will happen.
1)If you make money, in the short or medium term, you are good. You are happy. You can proceed with the long term goal.
2) If you dont make money and lost some, you cant fulfill your short term goal. You will have difficulty getting your long term financial plans. You suffer. You think that just dont think about it, hope that things will turn well. Most of the time it would turn worst.

On the other hand, if you get your long term financial plans right, tendency are you will still allocate some cash to build up your long term goal, at the same time you do other short and medium term plans. If you fail in the short of medium term plans, you still have your long term plans.

So which one is a safer bet for your life? Would you like to have your investment return to buy a house, go holiday or pay for medical expenses? If you do not want to get a protection, the tendency are when trading you wont obey the cut lost price too. So rethink you financial planning. Rethink your strategy.

I am not teaching people how to gamble

Some people thought that i am teaching people how to gamble by having this blog. They think that in stocks movement, it is 50/50(as good as gamble). My answer to them is are you cave man? Or do you not belong to this era?

To be honest, i do not know how to play mahjong, how to write a 4D/ toto, how to play tai ti, texas poker. I only know how to play black jack. I do not know why i cant learn them, but i know i do not like them, cos most of the time is luck.Probably is not fully luck. But to me is so hard. Cos there are not Technical analysis.haha.

Have you screen through the stocks and slowly see patterns and relate it with current situations?Have you see there are certain movement that will always happen, price that are supported or resisted. Who are the players involve in the market place etc?

If you have not, please learn to do it before you decide to say this is a gamble. After you get your long term financial plans right, you have to do this. (This is solely my advise, i guess no financial advisor advise this) Bcos, let put it straight, nothing can provide any individual with such liquid in investment. Which mean you can cash out in a short period of time with or without profit and is easy fast. You will take the full responsibility of your own money.

If you think this is gambling, to be honest, is either you do not have enough financial education or you simply dont care about your financial situation. How many times i am wrong on my prediction since this blog is up last year? probably the max 3 - 5 times. Do you think I am gambling? I myself have a hit rate of win about 7-9 / 10.

This is a high risk, high reward, high liquid instrument. More for short and medium financial goals. So you may not want to use them for long term financial goals.

USD

Hey folk

USD is not doing very good. Technical analysis have shown us that the USD will weaken further. If you see the monthly chart, it is horrible. It going to go down more.

When will the USD turn around? Well, wait till the FED increase interest rate. Until then, the USD is still moving lower.

People there that are holding USD or USD product and need to liquid them in the near term may lost out on exchange rate. MAS have stated to further raise the exchange rate of Singapore. Mean we are getting a strong SGD. YEAH. Mean going to travel is cheaper.

Monday, March 21, 2011

Mkt update

Hey Folk

Dow Jones transport have already pierce through the triangle top as i am typing. The other US indices are following.

Some news from the US, the banks in US have pass the stress test. The FED have allow the banks to pay more dividend and allow them to do more share buy back. Which mean the economy is doing good.\
The EU are having their stress test in April.
China again raise the cash ratio of their bank.
All this indicator tell us that the whole world economy is getting better.

Today Asia mkt move up pretty neat. As I say in the very beginning i still believe the upmove is intact. Even with the natural disaster happening and the unrest in middle east. Things are going to get better.

I said in the previous posting to accumulate slowly. How I know that?? Technical analysis. I never trade through news. I use news to support or reinforce only. Hope you guys are making good money out there.

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Mkt update with some fundamental on the broad picture

Hey folk

Thought I am not a fundamental analysis person, but i do some thinking on that sometimes after i had my technical analysis done.

What i thought of sharing is more of a broad picture. Let talk about the Leader of the world, USA. It still have the highest GDP around the world. It is still the world police and it still have influence on many things happening in these world.

USA is a countries made up of people whom are not native to the land. They came and decided to kill the red Indians and form their own country. So after they have succeeded, they say ok, you be the judge, you be the sheriff, you be the banker and so on. Things are created this way. You see history, whenever they are hit by economy crisis, they never fail to bounce back. They are creator. They can tear things down that they have build for so long and say alright let restart.

USA also have technology edge as compare to any countries in the world. Your iphone, where is it from? your OS where is it from? Lots and Lots of things are from USA.

The economy of the US having improve since the crisis, they have manage to get lots of things sorted out and iron some straight. Looking at some of the news in the states, you find people queuing for hours for the new launch of whatever. This country GDP depend on internal consumption. If people are queuing up to buy things, do you think they are still in recession?

To me, they are creators. That why Alicia Key in her 'Empire state of mind' sing about New York as a place 'if you can make it there you can make it anywhere'. They will sure recover strongly. Another reason, is GIC is still heavily invested in the USA and also if you had read the 'Hard truth to keep Singapore going' MM Lee said so too.

For China, they will eventually take over USA as the number one in GDP. This is a force that we can never deny. China would slowly have that influence to the world too. Technology wise, the Chinese might not be able to catch up with the US. In fact, i think Chinese might take centuries to catch up in term of technology. Economy development would start from the coastal area of China and move inland. There are still lots of opportunities and lots of things to fine tune in these growing dragon in Asia.

For India, they do not have infrastructure to make their economy power up. They have IT expert, economy expert and what not. However, the caste system, their weakness of their legislation prevent them from moving fast. They will be the up coming after China if they get their things in place.

EU, a place full of history, a place full of culture. After EU is formed, they use the same currency. However, EU has been a place where lots of things are not sorted out yet. There is no 1 foreign policy, is alot of union here and there,they even thought that by keeping interest rate stable when the recession start and finally found that they were wrong. I think they will progress, but slowly.

Just my personal view.

Mkt update

Hey folk

Here you go, the triangle have a 60 to 70% rule. Which means to say, at the 60% to 70% range of the triangle and there is a breakout, that break out is a false breakout.The trend will move against the direction of the breakout. For our instances, it will be moving higher. FYI, spotting triangle is a art and not a science. Try spotting them yourself. Also this 60 - 70% rule hold true for the past 20 over years and also hold true for different market.

Dow Jones Transport, leader of leader


You can see the break out of the triangle at about the 60% range of the triangle. It going back into the triangle already. So expect more upside.


Dow Jones Ind


You see the same thing happening in here. However, DJI is follower of DJT. So stay tune.

S&P500


You see the same thing happening in here too. S&P500 is the follower of DJI.


STI


We are follower, things will go abit slow here. have not enter into the triangle yet.

Friday, March 18, 2011

Spotting the pattern

Hey folk

you guys see my posting http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/03/mkt-update_15.html

That is on S&P500. Do you see the same thing happen to Dow Jones Ind, Dow jones Transport, STI too???

This pattern actually happen so many time for many years. In the stock market, FX, Futures. Try to spot it. However spotting pattern is not a science is a fine art.Have to practise and practise. See them everyday and even on weekends, soon you be able to read the chart like a story book.

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Crude oil

Hey folk

This is not a market update, just some thoughts i had in my mind on crude oil.

Crude oil is a great resources that human being found out to do many things like generating power, power motor vehicle, the by product can be use to make alot of things like gas, heating oil and etc. There are so many things that can be produce and used from crude oil. Which also mean there are so many users that buy crude oil from the crude oil market and wait for delivery. There are also many countries that are 'lining up' to buy crude oil so that there economy can run properly.

Crude oil also affect our economy. For example, if the price of crude oil rise too high due to speculation, then inflation will go high. Our food in hawker center will be more expensive, pumping petrol will be more expensive and whatever will be more expensive.

If there are always so many people or countries or businesses or hedgers that want to buy crude oil, there wont be a problem with liquidity in the market. If there is no liquidity problem in the market, why should we allow speculators that only aim to make money from the fluctuation of prices to be in the market? They are just merely trying to make money themselves without considering the impact that they will create.

Unless you can prove that you are going to take the delivery of the crude oil or hedgers, why should you be in a market that could drastically affect the economy of the world.

So i hope we can do something about it or whoever that have the authority can help me bring across the idea. Thank

Panic????

Hey folk

I am still sticking to my gun of accumulating. No contra. Buy in small. Do not fall in love with the downside.

We are not going down and down.

Market aside, we really should give all our hopes and wishes to the Jap. Hope they are doing good, hope things will be better.

I am very impress with their people. Is on the papers, saying that despite all of them rushing to grab food, they still queue up, they do not litter the place. Which mean to say, despite the crisis, they are still order, they still uphold their manners.Wow.Respect.

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Mkt update

Alright folk,



I am going to show you what I learn recently from a veteran trader.

The picture shows the rectangle box, the new drop for the year.In the past, we always think Oct is the drop. But after the crisis, we might have a change.

The circle in the picture shows the computer glitch which cause it to drop. So it has nothing to do with anything, just computer error.

Next the triangle, show there will be a false breakout at about the 60% mark. It will stay low for about 6 days before moving up.And i mean real up move.

My forecast for the end of the year is still the same, for S&P500 1630s.

Accumulate slowly

As i said buy in bit by bit. do not contra. Once some good news come out from Japan, things will start to move. The overall economy situation situation are still positive. So once there are some good news, things will turn better.

Today we saw a panic sell, panicky right. so always have your stops in place. Remember your 2 main objective when investing in stocks. 1) Make money 2) Have liquid with your funds. If not invest in Unit trust or buy saving plans or life insurance, they give you guranteed. I kid you not. If you cant obey this, i am sorry that i dont think you can never belong to the 5% of the people in the market.

Do not contra

Hey folk

It would be a bargain hunt now. Buy in but not all your investment. Accumulate slowly, Do not Contra

Monday, March 14, 2011

Japan Fukushima

In Fukushima, the place where tsunami strike and where nuclear plant exploded in Japan. It is a place for tourism, fishing and seafood industries and also electricity industries. It has got no major import or export industries there.

In the past, wherever countries or places suffer from natural disaster, the economy pick up. Why? because of rebuilding. New projects needed to build this and that. Lots of things happening.Eg US natural disaster, Indonesia, China etc. These will bring up more things to 'do'. As in the demand for raw material will increase.

Do you think it will really crumble the economy of Japan?? I dont think so.
Do you think because of these we are going to suffer another slow down to the world economy?? I dont think so

US mkt

I think the US mkt will start low and then recover to positive. Traders take note

Nth is 100%

Mkt update with stock recommendation

Hey Folk

here you go. Nikkei fell as much as 6% today. STI 0.4% and HSI went up by 0.4%.
You can see that the market drop in the morning and then they recover except for Nikkei

News that Japanese govt have pump in money in the market to provide liquid. And Yen rise.

I have some stocks in Singapore that may worth your time to take alook

here you go:

City Dev
DBS
OCBC
Ezion
Finanacial one
First Resource
Indo Agri
Genting SP
Noble
Midas
Kepcorp
NOL
straitasia
Goldenargi

This stock have all tested or haven tested the support and are moving steadily.

Nothing is ever guranteed or for sure here. Things might change.

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Hard Truth

'The Hard Truth to keep Singapore going' is really a nice book to read. If you guys have time, pls get one. The book tells you about alot of things in depth, our existence, our economy and future, genes etc. I have not finish reading yet. But is really awesome.

Saturday, March 12, 2011

Japan

Hey folk

I believe lots of you guys know about what happen to Japan. Let bless the people of Japan to pull through this.

I also like to share some thoughts when i talk to various people that are quite old. Due to the world war, some of them have negative feelings about Japan. To them this is Karma, they did so many bad things to many people, that why they are so prone to earthquake, tsunami, their economy are not doing well for the pass 20 years.

Well, these are all some opinion of some people in the older generation. Perhaps we never gone through that period of tough time, we will never understand why do they hate Japanese so much. Is like, when i went to Beijing for tour last year, the tour guide was telling us this things. She say over there, if war occur against Tawain, they are willing to donate 1 month of their salary, if war with US they are willing to donate 2 months of their salary, if war with Japan they will all go for war.
This is just some small jokes. But from here, it imply that they really do not like them much.

Anyway, just some casual chat. Hope things goes well for them. Dow jones have recover from the drop. And oil price drop due to concern of lower demand. I explain these in the next posting.

Friday, March 11, 2011

mkt update

hi folk

buy the dips of today.the drop ytd is jus one off.

Monday, March 7, 2011

Mkt update

Alright Folk

Time for some action, The market in HK and SG are setting up for a up move. Today STI close near to the day high. The overall pattern set up for a up move.

Euro will still go stronger against the US dollar.

I guess crude oil too would continue to move higher.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Rate hike

As you can see the forecast of the market, the US economy is getting better and better. This too will lead to higher inflation and since the US printed so much money. The market rise so rapidly partly because of money been printed and to be used in the market.

I believe that a rate hike would come in. Not now, but maybe on the 3rd Qtr. Which mean to say that, the Euro will go up against the USD.

Forecast of DJI and S&P500 2011

I shall discuss on the new forecast of 2011 for the Dow jones, and S&P 500 on the blog.After careful reading the chart again, i alter the forecast figures.

Is the middle east going to affect the stock market?
Certainly, what happen to them will affect the market as some of them are oil producing countries. However, for now, oil going above $100/barrel is nothing very surprising. Inflation have set in so much, that oil at this price is still reasonable or shall i say cheap. Which also mean very true to us that our govt giving us growth dividend money, is use to combat the rise of goods price. The higher cost of goods is now for real. So prepare more money if you are going to the hawker center or kopitiam. Bcos all things are going to go more expensive.

However, salary of yours is still the same yar?
Exactly!!! Mean overall you are poorer. Pls do something about it, do not let your money sit in the bank and do nothing. Have 6 months of your expenses in your bank account and use the rest for something else. I kid you not. These inflation is set for real. Perhaps the next crisis for us is hyper inflation due to goods prices or shortage of food.

PLS do something about your savings!!!

SOOOOOO....what the prediction???
Well for the US market, it seems quite promising. Asia market look good too, but afterall it is a follower of the US.

I forecast S&P500 to reach about 1625s to 1630s level by end of the year.
I forecast Dow Jones to reach about 15600s by end of the year. Dow Jones ind will probably hit 14000s level by mid of the year.

Nth is 100%. I may be dead wrong about it.

Mkt update

Dow transport being the king of the market have some tidy up to do. They need to clear a few resistance before a strong uptrend is coming. The same indication for Dow Jones and the other indices.

For Asia, STI have been gapping up and close lower as compare to the open of the day. It is a sign of slight weakness. The overall movement as i see here may look like a 2010 Nov to Dec consolidation. After Dec2010, the market soar. So be patience.

Greed or interest??

I met a good friend today. He told me something quite interesting that i really ponder.
He draw 2 scenario of investment return and let his customer choose and most people choose that. Here is the scenario

1) An investment that is for 2 years. They will pay you 2-3% per year as a payout and every year they can generate 12% return. So overall this investment can generate 26% - 27% return in 2 years time.

2) An investment that is for 6 years, and generate a return of 20% per year.No payout at all.

What would you choose??

Alot of people choose number 1, reason being the period is shorter and there is payout. To bring to actual fact, option 1 is a failure investment that is known to many people( i shall not name the company or the investment vehicle).

My friend analysis and told me that alot of people are fill with greed and not the interest in knowing how they give such return. People are overwhelm by greed and greed lead them to do things that is not so logical. If you have the interest to know how they can do it, you may question does this make sense. Does the process make sense?

I ponder and find out that is true that alot of people do not have interest in stocks but just want to make money out of it and thought that it is a easy money making tools. Is fatally wrong

Investing and trading in stocks, FX, Futures, options needs lots of patience, guts, analysis, emotion control, self discipline and what not. This place is the hardest place to make money if you do not know them well enough. It is a place that lure people into thinking is easy and when you put your money in, that it!!!

So for people that want to make money out of here, please get your self well prepare for the hard true market. Bcos nobody would thank you or say sorry to you when that person win your money. And worst, you can only see your money been lost away without your control.

As an advisor, i think investing in stocks is good. But not everyone is suitable to trade. Having long term financial plans fixed first, eg insurance, retirement. Then you can tackle short and medium term. It is the overall planning that is important and the intention to follow the plan through your life.

Dividend stocks or not

Hi folk

I do not like to invest in stocks just to wait for dividend. The motive of investing in stocks for most are simple:
1) To make profit
2) To make profit and provide fast liquid


Collecting dividend is good, but how long do you want to lock in the cash for? The answer is no idea!!!What if the market drop and the stock price is below the price you bought, and the dividend payout plus your investment amount is still way above the current price of the stock? So to sell or not to sell?

If you would like to invest in dividend stock, my suggestion is do other investment.Invest in funds, Land banking, buy Endowment plan or do a monthly investment. This will help you eliminate your emotion of wanting to sell or keep looking at the market to see your stock price.

Some News and fundamental

The fundamental condition of the economy is getting better. The fundamentals did not turn sour during the past two months of the new year Listed companies are going on to announce their corporate results; those companies with good improved profits would make their stock prices look cheap as PE ratio would be much lower to attract investment interest.

The Jasmine Revolution that started in Tunisia has spread like wild fire, engulfing North Africa and all the Arab
countries in the Middle East. It is like a domino effect after Egypt.

Tunisia is still in turmoil since the president stepped down. Egypt is under the control of military junta. Oil
producing Libya is out of control. Peoples of Iran, Bahrain, Yemem and Jordan demonstrate to overthrow the governments.Midde East and North Africa countries can be grouped into oil and non oil producing ones. All this are risk that we human being cant control.

Though all this happen i still believe that the market would be moving upwards.

Oil price hitting 100 and above... This can lead to vicious inflation and recession happen at the same time. It happened in the 70s of the
last century once due to certain rise in oll price.

A price rise is either due to demands increase or supplies decrease.
1) If the price rise is due to increase in demands, the issue is not so critical as it signifies economic prosperity; people have more money to spend
(though it may be due to printing of currency notes). People do not grumble that much if inflation is due to booming and growing economy.

2) If the price rise is the result of short supplies, then except for a few hoarders, most people whose income remains unchange will suffer as income lags behind rising prices.Consumption and expenditure will be cut, and economic recession follows.

For people out there who follow my blog and are investing in Unit Trust/ mutual funds. Is a good time to switch them to equity funds like Asia, US or commodities. I believe the market is going to do well this year.
Currency to watch EURO against USD.