Saturday, July 30, 2011

What happen in a default economy

Hey folk

What would happen in a default economy?

Interest rate will sky rocket. Why??

For example, you bought a car and you are a good debtor that service your loan timely. All of a sudden, you decide not to pay anymore. So in future(if you are able to loan again) creditor wouldn't trust you that much. They will demand high interest to be charged.

So if a country were to default, they have to service high interest for their bonds. To ensure that they have cash flow, they will charge high interest for people that take up loans eg mortgage, car loan, credit car etc. All interest rate will skyrocket. These will cost money drying up in the market.

On the other hand, the currency of that particular country will slide. Which allow export to be cheaper. These may eventually help out in the countries economy as export is cheaper.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

More selling to come

Hey folk

I think more selling will come in and then after these the massive up run of the market.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Genting

Hey folk

I think genting will drop further to about 1.69 level.

Nth is 100%

Saturday, July 23, 2011

US and Europe : what happen next??

Hey folk

I am going to talk about the US and the Europe.

The US is facing a dateline by 2nd Aug 2011 to raise the debt ceiling or face a possible default. The 2 party in the US govt have not seen eye to eye on many issue yet.

US govt is really too big to fail. If they fail, the whole will be hit by a massive shock wave, worst then the previous one we had.

China one of the largest lender, will have problem. Singapore too hold many US treasuries. Things will turn ugly. The world will turn ugly.

My take is they will sure come into a consensus. Sure they will!

But it is before or after 2nd Aug??

If is before 2nd Aug, I think the equity market will either fly thru the roof or have a correction before doing so.

If after, then i think we might see the market drop drastically and then rebound and give it a massive bull run.

Europe is never a region i like to invest in. One of the reason is i think they are too welfare. Workers can go on strike for whatever reasons. Too much union protection for the workers, do not do a favour to the economy.

Germany and France are the only major 2 countries that support the EU together with Scandinavian countries like Norway etc. However, Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal have big problems. Greece is facing default. Now what the EU are doing is to prevent the default to happen now. Push it further down the route. Push it to perhaps 2 to 3 years later. It is inevitable that the situation can never be solved, unless these countries suddenly have super good growth for a long term.

Europe countries unlike Asia when in 1997 financial crisis, we could devalue our currency to make our export cheaper and in turn drive our economy. But EU use a unify Euro. They can do that.

My take is the problem is not solved, it just push further to future.

My forecast for S&P500 since the beginning of the year till now have not changed. I still am bullish about the market.

S&P500 to end at 1630s to 1650s
Gold to about 1800

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Market rally??

Hey Folk

Market rally??
Seems like most market is staging higher. But i prefer to stay out for now, I have stay out of gold, FX and equity.

Lets wait for things to clear up for entry. Like i believed

1) Never trade without stops
2) Never trade with emotion
3) Never trade without a plan
4) Never trade without the intention of following a plan
5) Never trade without any analysis
6) Never trade with irresponsibly with your guts feel, news, rumours
7) Never disobey rule number 1


Never trade without analysis and never trade with a plan..if you miss the wave do not chase. Let the market come to you.

Never trade with emotion
...trading is hard, trade with emotion is even harder. So get your emotion out, cutting lost is painful, but not cutting lost is even worst, it might kill your capital to rebound in future.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

high salt + low potassium = early death

hey folk

Something about health, high salt + low potassium = early death
premature death, stroke, heart diseases and blood clots
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/high-salt-low-potassium-early-death-u-study-212805304.html

Take care of your health. Nothing is more important than that.

7 Never in trading

Hey folk

I have these 7 never of trading that to me is the most important

1) Never trade without stops
2) Never trade with emotion
3) Never trade without a plan
4) Never trade without the intention of following a plan
5) Never trade without any analysis
6) Never trade with irresponsibly with your guts feel, news, rumours
7) Never disobey rule number 1

Gold entry technique

Hey folk

I also do trade gold Comex recently and this is how i trade it.



You can see that, a rally will come when the W% is coming out from the -75%.
Recently there is a triangle being formed. Remember it will breakout at about the 70% mark of the triangle, and a opposite direction rally will come.

My take is this precious metal will move so much higher by end of the year. About 300 dollar from now.

Always trade with stops. Never get emotional. Never make a trade base on your guts feel

Nth is ever 100%

Forecast and entry technique for S&P500

Hey folk

I have also trade the S&P500 spot market. I let you see the overall trend and the forecast.

S&P500 Spot

From 2009, we rally and there is a sideway pattern (circled) then we rally again and now we are in the sideway pattern again.
Would we rally?
My take is not for now, but for sure we will. Let take a closer look.

S&P500 spot close up

The close up, we see a bull flag and then a rally. Now we are in a bull flag. Once we break out is a rally.

S&P500 is a very good sample of the world economy, as there are 500 companies in there. Like i say, fundamental always come out in the chart first. From technical analysis, you will know where things are heading next.

Always trade with stops. Never get emotional. Never make a trade base on your guts feel.


Next up analysis of GOLD

Friday, July 15, 2011

Swing day effect

Hey folk

Folk you seen the swing day effect. it always create a opposite direction.

Talk about downgrade of US and whatever, you know what. I have not change my forecast for S&P500 and the rest of the indices since beginning of the year. It is still going up, technical analysis tell me this. How does it do that. Fundamental always come out in the chart first.

Yes i am mostly on short now. But this is just for now.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

Mkt update

Hey folk

A swing day setup throughout all major indices...Which mean a turning point and it mean drop.

Friday, July 8, 2011

Market update

Hey folk

I am back. I have been using this week to get in sync with the market

I been in trade for Eur/usd,Aud/usd, S&P500 and Gold. I have profited for S&P500 and Eur/usd.
Paper profit for Aud/usd and gold.

Equity market: They are going higher but not now yet. I do expect a dip to come in before the massive super rally. Remember almost at the beginning of the year , my projection for S&P500 is 1630-40s level. This still hold. Dow Transport have hit a all new high. When the leader do so, the follower follow.
I am bullish on the equity market and i foresee our 4Q to be very good.

Currency: Eur/USD i think for the short term it would go higher. Though europe is in a mess, but i trade with the chart and fundamental always appear on the chart first.

Metal: Gold is going to rally further. This precious metal is going to go much higher than right now. 1800s by end of the year.

During the day when Greece is signing the austerity plan. Which is 30th Jun 2011. Through the chart, is telling me that everything is fine and we are going up. I remember talking to many people and they are concern and worry where the market go next. Fundamental always come out of the chart first. I saw the Dow transport heading much higher. The follower will follow. That why i am qutie certain that nothing bad is going to happen.