Hey folk
For people that trade commodities, you can also try the yield between certain commodities and bonds. EG wheat vs bonds.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Book Profit and forward indicator
Hey folk
Time to book profit for equity market.
I have existed my position in the market.
In the previous post, i do have a few forward indicators
1) Seasonal: it is a tabulation of years of data for the month of Jan, Feb, Mar and so on and measure the percentage return permonth. Then average them out. This will give you a graph that shows the movement since history, which month do better.
2) Bonds and stock yield relationship: Bonds yield play a vital role with the relationship of the stocks. Use stock yield per week minus the bonds yield per week. Taking a difference of them in terms of 5 weeks, you can roughly gauge the future movement. This is available on barrons website http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-weeklybondstats.html
3) Bonds price move first then stocks: Bonds will always move first then stocks. Is when investors exit their position in bonds where they will enter into stocks. Usually bonds price movement is 5 mth in advance.
4) The commitment of traders report publish by the CFTC weekly: This tell us the positions the big boys take per week. So an increase in position on the long side mean they are buying up. This is available on CFTC website http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
Note that these are not timing indicators. These are more to confirm the direction of a trend or filter false breakout. For entry technique, you still need to use the W%, price action etc. But these can help you reduce the loses and mistake.
Time to book profit for equity market.
I have existed my position in the market.
In the previous post, i do have a few forward indicators
1) Seasonal: it is a tabulation of years of data for the month of Jan, Feb, Mar and so on and measure the percentage return permonth. Then average them out. This will give you a graph that shows the movement since history, which month do better.
2) Bonds and stock yield relationship: Bonds yield play a vital role with the relationship of the stocks. Use stock yield per week minus the bonds yield per week. Taking a difference of them in terms of 5 weeks, you can roughly gauge the future movement. This is available on barrons website http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-weeklybondstats.html
3) Bonds price move first then stocks: Bonds will always move first then stocks. Is when investors exit their position in bonds where they will enter into stocks. Usually bonds price movement is 5 mth in advance.
4) The commitment of traders report publish by the CFTC weekly: This tell us the positions the big boys take per week. So an increase in position on the long side mean they are buying up. This is available on CFTC website http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
Note that these are not timing indicators. These are more to confirm the direction of a trend or filter false breakout. For entry technique, you still need to use the W%, price action etc. But these can help you reduce the loses and mistake.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Gold
Hey folk
Was too busy recently.
Short gold yesterday at 1855. right now 1765. I think this metal will extend loses.
We are in a rebound for now. If you wan to buy, buy little amount. I am staying at the side line for equity.
I will share with you guys the seasonal, and the likely movement till end of the year.
Was too busy recently.
Short gold yesterday at 1855. right now 1765. I think this metal will extend loses.
We are in a rebound for now. If you wan to buy, buy little amount. I am staying at the side line for equity.
I will share with you guys the seasonal, and the likely movement till end of the year.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
Euro index still showing a big BULL flag
USD index is having a head and shoulder and is breaking down.
Equity indices is having some bottoming pattern, price are not so volatile or wild and with the 2 above currency behaving so, i think the index may move higher.
Gold may move lower.
Nth is 100%.
Euro index still showing a big BULL flag
USD index is having a head and shoulder and is breaking down.
Equity indices is having some bottoming pattern, price are not so volatile or wild and with the 2 above currency behaving so, i think the index may move higher.
Gold may move lower.
Nth is 100%.
COT
Hey folk
For commodities futures and indices futures, there are classification of 3 type of participant, the commercial, the large speculator and the small speculator.
The commercial are the ones that are usually right. There is the COT to measure the commercial activity.
Now I have something that is similar but i could track individual stocks and mutual funds as well. Stay tuned. Which mean to say, i can track where the big boys are putting the money into or out of that stocks.
For commodities futures and indices futures, there are classification of 3 type of participant, the commercial, the large speculator and the small speculator.
The commercial are the ones that are usually right. There is the COT to measure the commercial activity.
Now I have something that is similar but i could track individual stocks and mutual funds as well. Stay tuned. Which mean to say, i can track where the big boys are putting the money into or out of that stocks.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
Here some update
I do think that Gold will have a correction to about 1640s to 1650s soon and then rally back up to 1800s.
Equity market we have a smaller rate of change of drop for this week. This is the time when it may consolidate then move up or down after. Stay tune.
Nth is 100%
Here some update
I do think that Gold will have a correction to about 1640s to 1650s soon and then rally back up to 1800s.
Equity market we have a smaller rate of change of drop for this week. This is the time when it may consolidate then move up or down after. Stay tune.
Nth is 100%
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Wild swing & what the difference between 2008 and now
Hey folk
The market is swinging very wildly today in the US indices futures.
Please trade with cautious.
The good thing about now than what happen in 2008 is that: Gold price is still moving up. That means to say, investor are finding a safe haven to place their money. Unlike in 2008, when the equity market sell down, Gold sell down too. In fact everything sell down.
Having said that, one of these days, I think is soon, gold will be so overvalue compare to equity market. Investor would channel their cash to equity market and sell gold.
Now we are facing a confidence problem unlike back then which is liquid issue. Unless there are further deteriorating of fundamental situation, we will see bottom around in Sep.
If you are holding stocks at high price, i am a person that never advise on average down or hold till end of the year. Cut lost!!!
Equity Index and mutual funds can recover if the rally comes in, but for individual stocks it would be more tricky.
The projection that i see now is that the equity market will generally head south thru 2012 into 2014 and then a massive rally again. That massive rally will sure bring all stocks up. If you wish to hold until that date, then hold on.
The market is swinging very wildly today in the US indices futures.
Please trade with cautious.
The good thing about now than what happen in 2008 is that: Gold price is still moving up. That means to say, investor are finding a safe haven to place their money. Unlike in 2008, when the equity market sell down, Gold sell down too. In fact everything sell down.
Having said that, one of these days, I think is soon, gold will be so overvalue compare to equity market. Investor would channel their cash to equity market and sell gold.
Now we are facing a confidence problem unlike back then which is liquid issue. Unless there are further deteriorating of fundamental situation, we will see bottom around in Sep.
If you are holding stocks at high price, i am a person that never advise on average down or hold till end of the year. Cut lost!!!
Equity Index and mutual funds can recover if the rally comes in, but for individual stocks it would be more tricky.
The projection that i see now is that the equity market will generally head south thru 2012 into 2014 and then a massive rally again. That massive rally will sure bring all stocks up. If you wish to hold until that date, then hold on.
Turning back to green today?
Hey folk
We might see a recovery to green today.
ASX is green. HSI n Nikkei have lessen loses
, US indices cash are reovering too.
We might see a recovery to green today.
ASX is green. HSI n Nikkei have lessen loses
, US indices cash are reovering too.
Rocky ride
Hey folk
Rocky ride in the market!!
S&P cut rating of US govt. What is the impact??
The impact is unpredictable. By right, for any country, the interest rate will hike in the country. Liquidity in the market will dry. Stock will drop and all the bad things will happen.
But is the US. US has almost zero chance of default. Because what they can always do is to print money to return to you.
On the market
Some pointers to share:
1) Bonds and stock move inversely; now bonds are hitting a resistance; A massive H&S and it is testing the head area. If it fail, stocks will move up.
2)USD index from technical analysis is moving down and USD index down stock market up for this few years. I have not change yet.
3) Eur index or Eur/USD from technical analysis show they have some upside.
4) Crude oil; not a good indication as it usually move with the stock market. But lower down the price of crude may mean either demand is low or it will be cheaper for companies to do business.
5) Traditionally, market is not doing well during May, June, July, August period.
So do be cautious.
Rocky ride in the market!!
S&P cut rating of US govt. What is the impact??
The impact is unpredictable. By right, for any country, the interest rate will hike in the country. Liquidity in the market will dry. Stock will drop and all the bad things will happen.
But is the US. US has almost zero chance of default. Because what they can always do is to print money to return to you.
On the market
Some pointers to share:
1) Bonds and stock move inversely; now bonds are hitting a resistance; A massive H&S and it is testing the head area. If it fail, stocks will move up.
2)USD index from technical analysis is moving down and USD index down stock market up for this few years. I have not change yet.
3) Eur index or Eur/USD from technical analysis show they have some upside.
4) Crude oil; not a good indication as it usually move with the stock market. But lower down the price of crude may mean either demand is low or it will be cheaper for companies to do business.
5) Traditionally, market is not doing well during May, June, July, August period.
So do be cautious.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Debts issue will not disappear
Hey folk
Debts all over the developed countries in the West. Debts are still debts, till they are repay they are still underlying problem.
The way US and Europe are going thru are just pushing it back further. US have push their debt issue for about 60 years and they are still the world number 1. Europe on other hand do not enjoy the luxury of the US that they can borrow as they want.
So the underlying problem still exist and they are just pushing it further into future to solve or prolong the issue. One day, it will explode and cause lots and lots of trouble.
Well maybe we can live long enough to see how the situation unfold or maybe our sons or grandsons are the one that suffer from the so call man made ideal economy.
Debts all over the developed countries in the West. Debts are still debts, till they are repay they are still underlying problem.
The way US and Europe are going thru are just pushing it back further. US have push their debt issue for about 60 years and they are still the world number 1. Europe on other hand do not enjoy the luxury of the US that they can borrow as they want.
So the underlying problem still exist and they are just pushing it further into future to solve or prolong the issue. One day, it will explode and cause lots and lots of trouble.
Well maybe we can live long enough to see how the situation unfold or maybe our sons or grandsons are the one that suffer from the so call man made ideal economy.
Forecast for the rest of the year of 2011 and abit into 2012
Hey folk
My method have allow me to forecast with certain precision where the market is going. It is technical analysis,with cycles, with COT and with some calculation that allow me to see it. i do not pluck this number out from anywhere.
My stand for S&P500 is still the same.
Let me highlight to you where are we heading next.
S&P500 is still 1630s to 40s level; You will see a massive man made rally, none before in history. Probably in end of Sep to early Oct. However, i do see some clue telling me that market would go down during or alittle after the first quarter of 2012.
Gold is still at 1800s. There will be a pull back soon. Then a rally back up. This will last till end of this year or probably 1st Q of 2012
Silver will follow.
Currency
USD index will no longer be battled all the way down. It will want to be stronger.
Aussie dollar has already fall; i foresee it will fall further thru Sep before coming back up.
Euro is time to long; may see Euro rally to Oct.
One interesting thing you might know is stock yield usually lag bond yield by 24 mths. So we can see bonds yield high in Apr 2010, so this give us a indication that stock top will be Apr 2012.Then bond yield have bottom in Nov 2010, this tell us stock bottom at Nov 2012.
I may be totally wrong despite my previous forecast. But i do stick to them.
Nth is 100%
My method have allow me to forecast with certain precision where the market is going. It is technical analysis,with cycles, with COT and with some calculation that allow me to see it. i do not pluck this number out from anywhere.
My stand for S&P500 is still the same.
Let me highlight to you where are we heading next.
S&P500 is still 1630s to 40s level; You will see a massive man made rally, none before in history. Probably in end of Sep to early Oct. However, i do see some clue telling me that market would go down during or alittle after the first quarter of 2012.
Gold is still at 1800s. There will be a pull back soon. Then a rally back up. This will last till end of this year or probably 1st Q of 2012
Silver will follow.
Currency
USD index will no longer be battled all the way down. It will want to be stronger.
Aussie dollar has already fall; i foresee it will fall further thru Sep before coming back up.
Euro is time to long; may see Euro rally to Oct.
One interesting thing you might know is stock yield usually lag bond yield by 24 mths. So we can see bonds yield high in Apr 2010, so this give us a indication that stock top will be Apr 2012.Then bond yield have bottom in Nov 2010, this tell us stock bottom at Nov 2012.
I may be totally wrong despite my previous forecast. But i do stick to them.
Nth is 100%
Friday, August 5, 2011
Do not short
Hey folk
Do not short. If you want to short, is as of 27 jul.
Do not short already, look out to buy
Do not short. If you want to short, is as of 27 jul.
Do not short already, look out to buy
Psychology of a trader now as the market is falling
Hey folk
Alot of traders that bought stocks at a higher price in Asia market would panic when they see the down move in the US market right now. Probably most of them cant fall asleep. They are hoping that the market would recover as much as possible so that when Asia market open tomorrow, they hope again their holdings dont fall too much. If a run up occur like yesterday, they will be so excited and presume the market have will recover so that they can unload whatever they have.
These are emotions!!!
The killer of your cash or risk capital. The reason for killing you, and throw you out of the market in a short period of time.
Now as i am typing, DJI is down 346 points. A rare big down day.Worst of all, when Asia market gap down tomorrow morning. Traders that get emotions involve would hope again that the market would go up soon or overanalysis the situation to try to find a reason that maybe artificial to comfort themselves.
Or they might like to listen to some hopeful words of advise, like "is ok is going up soon". "The support is there...quite near the price now" or whatever reasons.
The market is always right. Dont 2nd guess it or try to find any other reason to comfort yourself to hold the position. Should have already cut lost. Dont hope!!!Because using hope or luck analysis will kill you outright.
Alot of traders that bought stocks at a higher price in Asia market would panic when they see the down move in the US market right now. Probably most of them cant fall asleep. They are hoping that the market would recover as much as possible so that when Asia market open tomorrow, they hope again their holdings dont fall too much. If a run up occur like yesterday, they will be so excited and presume the market have will recover so that they can unload whatever they have.
These are emotions!!!
The killer of your cash or risk capital. The reason for killing you, and throw you out of the market in a short period of time.
Now as i am typing, DJI is down 346 points. A rare big down day.Worst of all, when Asia market gap down tomorrow morning. Traders that get emotions involve would hope again that the market would go up soon or overanalysis the situation to try to find a reason that maybe artificial to comfort themselves.
Or they might like to listen to some hopeful words of advise, like "is ok is going up soon". "The support is there...quite near the price now" or whatever reasons.
The market is always right. Dont 2nd guess it or try to find any other reason to comfort yourself to hold the position. Should have already cut lost. Dont hope!!!Because using hope or luck analysis will kill you outright.
A very nice commercial and video
Hey folk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwKYjZ_8EcE&hd=1
This is a very nice commercial about trader. Enjoy!!
Some videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORS64SkQHXk&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zxpCkuiL0Y&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwKYjZ_8EcE&hd=1
This is a very nice commercial about trader. Enjoy!!
Some videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORS64SkQHXk&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zxpCkuiL0Y&feature=related
Bargain hunt! But dont buy now
Hey folk
Bargain hunt!!
The equity, Eur/USD, Aud/USD and crude slide further.
The swing day for equity indices dont work this time.
Pls do not buy now, Short list them and wait. Wait patiently.
Bargain hunt!!
The equity, Eur/USD, Aud/USD and crude slide further.
The swing day for equity indices dont work this time.
Pls do not buy now, Short list them and wait. Wait patiently.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Gold
Hey Folk
Gold i do foresee Gold to hit 1800s at end of year.
For now, it will move up to about 1670s to 80s then a pull back.
Gold i do foresee Gold to hit 1800s at end of year.
For now, it will move up to about 1670s to 80s then a pull back.
DJI, Nasd, S&P500 Spot
Hey folk
There is a swing day in place for all these 3 equity indices spot market.
That mean to say a up move will come in, however
Nasdaq have to cross 2354
S&P500 to cross 1284
DJI to cross 12088
for more upside.
There is a swing day in place for all these 3 equity indices spot market.
That mean to say a up move will come in, however
Nasdaq have to cross 2354
S&P500 to cross 1284
DJI to cross 12088
for more upside.
Forecast accurate
Hey folk
This is my forecast on various dates and it really happen
http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/07/hey-folk-i-am-going-to-talk-about-us.html - 23Jul
http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/07/more-selling-to-come.html - 28 Jul
I have said that the US would not default on 23 Jul, i have said that the market will continue to weaken on 28 Jul and it all happen. These are no luck. This are all technical analysis with emotion out.
So what next???
I do not see a strong up run now. Rebound there maybe, but still weak.
Nth is 100%
This is my forecast on various dates and it really happen
http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/07/hey-folk-i-am-going-to-talk-about-us.html - 23Jul
http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/07/more-selling-to-come.html - 28 Jul
I have said that the US would not default on 23 Jul, i have said that the market will continue to weaken on 28 Jul and it all happen. These are no luck. This are all technical analysis with emotion out.
So what next???
I do not see a strong up run now. Rebound there maybe, but still weak.
Nth is 100%
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