Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Market update

Hey folk

I was too busy to update the blog. I have been updating my client on email and busy with work and research on the market that i have really no time for this. But i am back.

Bear is in the market!!!

So let me start with Operation twist that happen in 1960 and you see a hugh sell off, then it rally and then a real major sell off. So this might happen to what we are experiencing now. See the DJI chart on yahoo,google or whatever.

My 5 week advance indicator say that we are at the peak and there will be sell off thru now till Oct.

Seasonal trend
You notice that the drop through out the last 25 years is usually in Sept, rebound and then drop into Oct before a rally.

10 year cycle
Usually is a down year for 2012 then the massive run up is the years ending with 5. So the next one will be 2015.

We are in down trend now. But I guess there will be a massive rally around the corner. After this massive rally please exist all your position on long and prepare for short. 2012 will not be a good one ( base on analysis). 2015 will be another rally like what we experience in 2005 thru 2007.

The other thing to look out for is that everything is flush down especially crude oil, this will make the cost of doing biz cheaper. With the strengthen of the USD and cheaper commodities, this is going to give the world a simulates package. However we are in a downtrend now and I still see a major rally to come in Oct. Any call to buy will be a short one. Of course higher risk.

I have call to buy today on FX, stocks and indices


Here is the SnP500. Perhaps a triangle is forming. That could be a false breakout to the downside. Usually this happen you will see rally.


STI have a bullish flag form.

Nothing is 100%

Monday, September 19, 2011

EU

Hey folk

Europe themselves are in a real bad shape. Would Greek default?? No idea. But we all know they are in real bad shape. My take is eventually they will unless some miracle happen. Greek credit default swap have raise drastically. The highest in history. Their bonds is at 57% yield.

EU is form in the first place not for economy progress but more of a political reason and stability. 17 countries using the same currency, but with different central banks, giving out different bonds may be a dangerous game to play.

ECB last week have pump dollar into their banking system, which is never their job to do such things. Italy have call China to buy their bonds. A key person in the ECB have resign. All these signs are not very promising.

Germany the highest GDP in EU have some growth problem. France the 2nd largest GDP in EU have their top banks rating cut by Moody.

EU A region with extreme rich in history and culture now suffer shock. I hope that EU do not break up, if they do the world will be in much unstable.

QE 3???

Hey folk

on 20 -21 Sep, the FED is having a meeting. Would FED chairman come up with QE3???

My take is probably would, if not this month then next month.

US have got no other way out to simulate the economy. QE 1 1.7 Trillion money print and flood the market, QE2 600 Bil money printed and flood the market. Interest rate at real low value, but there is no way the economy is simulated at all. Cash printed are flowing into emerging economy, (where are those countries?? Asia Ex Jap). Obama have said that to keep interest rate at low level till 2013, which mean to say there will be lots of uncertainty till then.
In due of the president election next year, the democrat and the republican are still playing political game even their country are facing such a crisis.

USD is still the safe heaven currency only because they are still the world number one in term of most traded currency. You need to deal in USD for many things eg buy oil. Bonds market which has the highest liquidity in the world have almost half traded in USD.Which mean that in the world of uncertainty, USD is still the better currency.

If QE3 were to realize, it would have the same effect, they will buy long term bonds, they will flood the market and try to simulate the economy. The equity market will go up, but not the economy. USD will also be strong against other currency as in the uncertain situation, USD is still a safer currency. But it would not last long being strong. It will be weaken by excess supply and inflation take place.

The money printed will flow to emerging market. Then emerging market will get overheated and they will try every possibility to try to fight inflation. This cycle happen and happen again.

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Heating oil

Hey folk

I am long on heating oil.

One more time

Hey folk

In my view, the market need to drop/dive one last time before it goes up.

Friday, September 9, 2011

Winning trade for this few days

Hey folk

Client that are in my sms list receive the follow 2 stock trades. However we miss the Genting boat. But we catch the Noble boat.

Genting Chart

Noble Chart

This is my own personal S&P500 trade for the pass few days.

Cool movement from the market this few days. Congrat for those who follow the trades.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Rally

Hey folk

Rally is coming. I have suggest some of my client to long.

Stock long candiate
Noble
Genting

I totally miss the currency trade when swiss national bank made the decision to hold it currency.

Futures long candidate
S&P

Nth is 100%. Keep your stop loss in place

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Where are we heading?

Hey folk Tomorrow i will participate in AHM. Army half marathorn. Woow. Last week i did king of the road 16.8km and this week here we go again.
Like the market, the week before we are doing good and on thur when we hit the highs and went down further because of the jobs data. This tell me that we are really entering into the ultra rally soon.

There are a few stocks that you can look at to long after the drop.
Genting
Ramba
Noble Grp

Cosco is a hot topic
, but my take is it is still a short stock. it is really pretty weak. Stay tune next week as many more things are coming up. Obama is talking on the 7 Sep.

The commitment of trader report for this week on the indices have shown buying. But just a normal ones. The seasonal show we are heading higher very soon.However nothing is 100%