Bear Bull Crash Rally

Hey Folk

Let look at some of the major market

Singapore Market weekly chart the equivalent of STI.

Look at the chart. It span from 2011 to now. Our STI are already in the bear market since last year. I do see some divergent in the indicators. So I think a rebound is due. But this is a rebound in a bear market and given the weakness of this market, when the strong market rally it might just have minimum influence on the upside.

Anyone wish to participate in this market have to be cautious. Also I did say before that our exchange is really dead. There is not much volume.

This is China A50. A ETF equivalent to SSE. This is a weekly chart

This is a wild market. It went up wildly start of 2015 and came down within the same year. This market is not in a bear yet. If it break up around 11,000 area and stay, this market is charging again.

From the indicator, it say to me that there are no more strength to the downside. From price point of view it did not break the previous low, which is a pivot point on that week of 23 Aug 2015.

This is Nikkei equivalent. This is a weekly chart

This market is not in bear yet too. It actually follow very closely to the S&P500 market. This market still have strength.

This is EuroStoxx. This is a weekly chart.

Still have strength to move higher. Not a bear yet. Just a change of trend from up to down. Comparing to Nikkei, this market is stronger.

From indicators, there are divergent.

This is Dow Jones weekly chart

The Strongest market in the world. All indicators tell me there is a upmove.

I forecast a rally coming end of Feb. This will be a last leg. However, that is just a forecast. Along the way, I have to see the accumulation and other correlations.

So the strongest to the weakest market Dow, EuroStoxx, Nikkei, Chinaa50, STI.

We will find that Asia have the weakest market. Eg of some are Taiwan, KL, Korea etc

US President have announce on the State of Union speech that America is at the best now and still the world best. I think they will still lead the way.

China is the second best and still the second best now. Prior to the crisis all raw materials are purchased by China thus all the high prices. Now they are not buying that why all commodities are at very low price which in turn affect a lot of emerging market due to their economy structure.

Take a look at abalone, is it cheaper now??

Also low oil price actually is the cause of not so good economy, but also mean lower cost of doing business which make economy better.

Cheer

Market crash market slide

Hey Folk

A fresh start!!

Let me jump right in to the market first. I think the US market is going to stage a last leg rally. This may create a new high. There are a lot of commercial buying since 14 Dec 2015 till today.

This will pull the world wide stock market to a rally as well. The weak market will stage a rebound. The weaker market are STI, HSI, KLCI, SSE etc. Most of them are Asia market. If you have position you may wish to unload.

The forecast

Stock Market Forecast for 2016 is not at all pleasant. Stock market will transit into bear market in 2016. I think there maybe a rally coming in soon for the first half of the year. If the FED raise rate as plan, by June it will be the third rate hike and is when the market turn bear.

I missed my 2015 stock forecast by 11 points in the S&P 500. I foresee it as a positive year but it end up to be a negative year.

Oil will still be going down at least for the first half of the year. This instrument is getting harder to predict. Some of my indicators is telling me that it will be mixed for the first half of the year.

Gold is staging a rebound, but is still a downtrend.

For Singapore stock investors

Singapore market is suffering a lack of participation in the market. There are very little investors coming into the market. We are a first world economy, a financial hub but if our stock market do not have a lot of investor then we might have a problem.

First of all, I think the no contra rule have kill the market. Also overprotective of retail investors by the regulator deny the interest of speculators and funds or hot money coming into Singapore. I really think we should not be so protective. The market is dog eat dog world. It is unfair as retail investor will never have sufficient information and liquidity like the funds or hot money, but that is the market.

Read this

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/business-leaders-call-for-cpf-monies-to-be-invested-in-singapore-shares-to-help?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#xtor=CS1-10

Yes we are safe, stable and predictable but that do not cook up the market. Imagine if there is little liquidity in the market, we can be very safe, stable and predictable but price of stock do not move or move very very slowly. It do not justify.

cheers