Up Coming

Hey Folk

Next week a lot of of important data are coming out from the US and the EU region. They are going to dominate the market movement.

This week we have nothing much. However, let point to the incident where Turkey shot down Russian plane. The market did react for the day and then the next day things are back to normal again. I am observing that the market are more and more resilient to unexpected news that have regards to terror and fighting.

I still do believe that the FED this time round may rise interest rate. US and EU market are still a uptrend, Japan as well. However the rest of the market like Spore is downtrend. Emerging market performance are worst. I do believe that one fine day some crisis will happen again which lead the drop of all market. However, the time of it would not be so soon. It we take a 10 years cycle, it would be in 2017 to 2018 period.

Positions

Long the S&P500. Short EurUsd.

Short and sweet for this week

Cheer

Slow and steady

Hey Folk

I think it is quite clear that the FED is going to raise rate. After the Fed meeting minutes out on Wednesday the market went up. I think maybe the anticipation is ending soon so a more clear action can be seen. However, the question is how much the rate will rise.

We are in a uptrend in the US market, Euro Stoxx 50 and Nikkei. The rest of the market like STI, China and Hong Kong are still in a downtrend. This actually give us a very clear indication of the stronger and weaker market. So long the strongest and short the weakest.

Gold to me is a downtrend. If you read my posting before, you would have known that gold have a 30 years cycle and commodities tend to reverse to the mean. Gold is in the 15 year down cycle. 6 years have passed, so there is approximately another 9 more years to go. The good thing is gold will move quite slowly, so price will not collapse so fast. It take time to even reach 700.

Oil is another commodities that is in the process of reserving to the mean. This is a wilder instrument. They are quite volatile. Oil as well is in a downtrend.

Positions

I have got stop out in oil. Shorted the stock market this week. Long and profited on Sterling.

cheer

Shake shake

Hey Folk

We are back to a uptrend. The market is getting shaky again. After awhile you realise that the market will trend after a shaky or unsure period. So now is the unsure and shaky period again, so next the market will trend. When is the unsure period going to be over, is the golden question.

Confession, any indicators on a stock market is not as accurate as before. Back in the good old days, the stock market is much easier to predict. Now (to be exact after 2007-08 crisis) the market is getting harder and harder to foresee. The reason being stock market are more popular, there are more participant and all sort of account sizes. So too many cook spoil the broth. A lot of indicators works well in the commodities and FX region. To analysis the stock market, we have to use a lot of indicators from different perspectives to give a rather accurate findings. Yet these indicators have to be prioritize base on the assumed situations, none of the indicators are a permanent solution for the assumed situations.

However, one fact that has lasted for the test of times is that stock indices always goes up except Japan. Stock market ( referring to indices ) have a upwards bias. The other truth so far is the relationship with bond price.

I think the rate raise will come in December, unless somethings happen from now till then. I changed my stand is because I find that it is more of a political reason rather than a economic reason. Inflation is still low, if is rising, we will already see oil price rising. It is very vivid, we common man on the ground will know it. Example electric bill rise, gas we use for cooking rise, petrol price rise, soap, detergent, egg etc price will go up. However, all this did not happen.

This actually show that economic activities are slowing down. Remember a few weeks ago, I said that our PM say that be prepare for slow down. He never BS. They know things way ahead of us. So be prepared.

Positions

Liquid all my positions this week. Shorted gold again,

Look at suntec riets and Keppel reits. Good shorting candidate.

Asia and emerging market stock are much weaker. Take advantage of it.

cheer

Uptrend now

Hey Folk

Unemployment at 5%. A sign that is good for a small interest rate hike. Probably that is really happening in December.

We are back to uptrend in the stock market already. So now is loading more longs than shorts position. I do forsee a up move till the end of the year. Surely it would not be a straight line up. There will be pull backs and consolidation. Dooms sayer are caught once again. I do believe one fine day the market will come off and stay in bearish for 2-3 years, but now is not the time. I still think we have room to grow.

There are a lot of people out there saying that the market are bearish. I think they are my indicator as well. It tell me that if I do the opposite, I will be in profit.

Positions

I loaded up on USD this week. Look out for REITS for shorting. I am also looking at Alibaba.

Well this week nothing much. Until next time…..

cheer