Hey folk
I think we will be having a slight pull back. Then a rally again.
Stay tune.
We are right now in a situation where alot of asset classes are in sync. Currency, equity, Energy, metal. They are all in sync movement.
So if you short equity, you should also be shorting currency. But having said that you are also expose to more risk.
Monday, November 7, 2011
Saturday, November 5, 2011
I am back!!
Hey folk
I am back. I was too busy trying to develop, back test and used some new technique for trading this few months. Well all said and i have done them.
My stand are still the same and clear. We are moving higher till about 1st Q of 2012. Then we may have a long term down trend.
Let us go through what has happen. EU wish to increase the funds of EFSF to 1 Trillion. They would need to look for countries to invest in their debt. They are looking at India, Brazil, Russia and China. The only country that have the financial power to get the debt is China. We are talking about 56Billion Euro. However, China have the experience of the US when they bought US debt. US started with the QE, which make the currency depreciate alot. So China may not help them at all.
Greece oh Greece. The whole meeting and aid are for Greece and some other countries that belong to the PIGS, but Greece said teh day before yesterday that they wanted a referendum to see if they want to be in the EU, then the next day the referendum is cancelled. This show there are split in political view within the govt of Greece and things may not be solved that easily.
These are all the blocks to prevent growth and stability of the world economy. They need to be solved, however i do not think that they can resolve them fast and easy.
I am back. I was too busy trying to develop, back test and used some new technique for trading this few months. Well all said and i have done them.
My stand are still the same and clear. We are moving higher till about 1st Q of 2012. Then we may have a long term down trend.
Let us go through what has happen. EU wish to increase the funds of EFSF to 1 Trillion. They would need to look for countries to invest in their debt. They are looking at India, Brazil, Russia and China. The only country that have the financial power to get the debt is China. We are talking about 56Billion Euro. However, China have the experience of the US when they bought US debt. US started with the QE, which make the currency depreciate alot. So China may not help them at all.
Greece oh Greece. The whole meeting and aid are for Greece and some other countries that belong to the PIGS, but Greece said teh day before yesterday that they wanted a referendum to see if they want to be in the EU, then the next day the referendum is cancelled. This show there are split in political view within the govt of Greece and things may not be solved that easily.
These are all the blocks to prevent growth and stability of the world economy. They need to be solved, however i do not think that they can resolve them fast and easy.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Events coming up
Hey folk
There are lots of events coming up this week as this week is the earning season. Moreover there are many other things as well.
Here are some of the important news as well as on the 13 Oct JP morgan are announcing result
There are lots of events coming up this week as this week is the earning season. Moreover there are many other things as well.
Here are some of the important news as well as on the 13 Oct JP morgan are announcing result
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
Let me sum up what had happen in this month. We witness a history moment on the 20-21 Sep where FED decide to have operation twist. This have set the market falling as investors are fear of the weak market condition. To add matter worst, Greece and Euro region spark off fear of possible default.
Operation twist - is the selling of short term treasury and buy long term treasury so as to lower the yield of the treasury. So as to keep loans rate cheap. This effort would continue to try to simulate the economy by allow cheaper borrowing. USD which is the safe heaven currency of the world appreciate immediately against all the other currency. The equity and the commodities market at the same time fell due to fear of the still weak economy. However, with the strong USD and the low commodities price, it is a natural simulates package for the world economy as the cost of biz is lower.
Next week we will see a week full of important data and announcement. Monday is peaceful while Tuesday you see Trichet, Ben, Raskin giving speech, then the week to come are ISM data, non farm payroll etc. This will affect the currency market very much as well
Technical analysis point of view
I could see from the seasonal and the 5 week advance indicators are trending lower for this week. By mid or even end of Oct that the market will rally. Commitment of traders for most commodities have saw increase in long position by the commercial, however equity market have not show very significant increase in the commercial buying activities.
The USD and the equity market still is trying to form a relation now. In the past few years, USD up equity market down. By right in a normal economy is USD up equity market up. So I have notice that there are some struggle now between the USD and the equity market to establish the normal economy relationship.
Also we are still in a big bear flag for most equity indices. The triangle may not formed. So i do expect the equity market to be weak next week.
Let me sum up what had happen in this month. We witness a history moment on the 20-21 Sep where FED decide to have operation twist. This have set the market falling as investors are fear of the weak market condition. To add matter worst, Greece and Euro region spark off fear of possible default.
Operation twist - is the selling of short term treasury and buy long term treasury so as to lower the yield of the treasury. So as to keep loans rate cheap. This effort would continue to try to simulate the economy by allow cheaper borrowing. USD which is the safe heaven currency of the world appreciate immediately against all the other currency. The equity and the commodities market at the same time fell due to fear of the still weak economy. However, with the strong USD and the low commodities price, it is a natural simulates package for the world economy as the cost of biz is lower.
Next week we will see a week full of important data and announcement. Monday is peaceful while Tuesday you see Trichet, Ben, Raskin giving speech, then the week to come are ISM data, non farm payroll etc. This will affect the currency market very much as well
Technical analysis point of view
I could see from the seasonal and the 5 week advance indicators are trending lower for this week. By mid or even end of Oct that the market will rally. Commitment of traders for most commodities have saw increase in long position by the commercial, however equity market have not show very significant increase in the commercial buying activities.
The USD and the equity market still is trying to form a relation now. In the past few years, USD up equity market down. By right in a normal economy is USD up equity market up. So I have notice that there are some struggle now between the USD and the equity market to establish the normal economy relationship.
Also we are still in a big bear flag for most equity indices. The triangle may not formed. So i do expect the equity market to be weak next week.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
I was too busy to update the blog. I have been updating my client on email and busy with work and research on the market that i have really no time for this. But i am back.
Bear is in the market!!!
So let me start with Operation twist that happen in 1960 and you see a hugh sell off, then it rally and then a real major sell off. So this might happen to what we are experiencing now. See the DJI chart on yahoo,google or whatever.
My 5 week advance indicator say that we are at the peak and there will be sell off thru now till Oct.
Seasonal trend
You notice that the drop through out the last 25 years is usually in Sept, rebound and then drop into Oct before a rally.
10 year cycle
Usually is a down year for 2012 then the massive run up is the years ending with 5. So the next one will be 2015.
We are in down trend now. But I guess there will be a massive rally around the corner. After this massive rally please exist all your position on long and prepare for short. 2012 will not be a good one ( base on analysis). 2015 will be another rally like what we experience in 2005 thru 2007.
The other thing to look out for is that everything is flush down especially crude oil, this will make the cost of doing biz cheaper. With the strengthen of the USD and cheaper commodities, this is going to give the world a simulates package. However we are in a downtrend now and I still see a major rally to come in Oct. Any call to buy will be a short one. Of course higher risk.
I have call to buy today on FX, stocks and indices
Here is the SnP500. Perhaps a triangle is forming. That could be a false breakout to the downside. Usually this happen you will see rally.
STI have a bullish flag form.
Nothing is 100%
I was too busy to update the blog. I have been updating my client on email and busy with work and research on the market that i have really no time for this. But i am back.
Bear is in the market!!!
So let me start with Operation twist that happen in 1960 and you see a hugh sell off, then it rally and then a real major sell off. So this might happen to what we are experiencing now. See the DJI chart on yahoo,google or whatever.
My 5 week advance indicator say that we are at the peak and there will be sell off thru now till Oct.
Seasonal trend
You notice that the drop through out the last 25 years is usually in Sept, rebound and then drop into Oct before a rally.
10 year cycle
Usually is a down year for 2012 then the massive run up is the years ending with 5. So the next one will be 2015.
We are in down trend now. But I guess there will be a massive rally around the corner. After this massive rally please exist all your position on long and prepare for short. 2012 will not be a good one ( base on analysis). 2015 will be another rally like what we experience in 2005 thru 2007.
The other thing to look out for is that everything is flush down especially crude oil, this will make the cost of doing biz cheaper. With the strengthen of the USD and cheaper commodities, this is going to give the world a simulates package. However we are in a downtrend now and I still see a major rally to come in Oct. Any call to buy will be a short one. Of course higher risk.
I have call to buy today on FX, stocks and indices
Here is the SnP500. Perhaps a triangle is forming. That could be a false breakout to the downside. Usually this happen you will see rally.
STI have a bullish flag form.
Nothing is 100%
Monday, September 19, 2011
EU
Hey folk
Europe themselves are in a real bad shape. Would Greek default?? No idea. But we all know they are in real bad shape. My take is eventually they will unless some miracle happen. Greek credit default swap have raise drastically. The highest in history. Their bonds is at 57% yield.
EU is form in the first place not for economy progress but more of a political reason and stability. 17 countries using the same currency, but with different central banks, giving out different bonds may be a dangerous game to play.
ECB last week have pump dollar into their banking system, which is never their job to do such things. Italy have call China to buy their bonds. A key person in the ECB have resign. All these signs are not very promising.
Germany the highest GDP in EU have some growth problem. France the 2nd largest GDP in EU have their top banks rating cut by Moody.
EU A region with extreme rich in history and culture now suffer shock. I hope that EU do not break up, if they do the world will be in much unstable.
Europe themselves are in a real bad shape. Would Greek default?? No idea. But we all know they are in real bad shape. My take is eventually they will unless some miracle happen. Greek credit default swap have raise drastically. The highest in history. Their bonds is at 57% yield.
EU is form in the first place not for economy progress but more of a political reason and stability. 17 countries using the same currency, but with different central banks, giving out different bonds may be a dangerous game to play.
ECB last week have pump dollar into their banking system, which is never their job to do such things. Italy have call China to buy their bonds. A key person in the ECB have resign. All these signs are not very promising.
Germany the highest GDP in EU have some growth problem. France the 2nd largest GDP in EU have their top banks rating cut by Moody.
EU A region with extreme rich in history and culture now suffer shock. I hope that EU do not break up, if they do the world will be in much unstable.
QE 3???
Hey folk
on 20 -21 Sep, the FED is having a meeting. Would FED chairman come up with QE3???
My take is probably would, if not this month then next month.
US have got no other way out to simulate the economy. QE 1 1.7 Trillion money print and flood the market, QE2 600 Bil money printed and flood the market. Interest rate at real low value, but there is no way the economy is simulated at all. Cash printed are flowing into emerging economy, (where are those countries?? Asia Ex Jap). Obama have said that to keep interest rate at low level till 2013, which mean to say there will be lots of uncertainty till then.
In due of the president election next year, the democrat and the republican are still playing political game even their country are facing such a crisis.
USD is still the safe heaven currency only because they are still the world number one in term of most traded currency. You need to deal in USD for many things eg buy oil. Bonds market which has the highest liquidity in the world have almost half traded in USD.Which mean that in the world of uncertainty, USD is still the better currency.
If QE3 were to realize, it would have the same effect, they will buy long term bonds, they will flood the market and try to simulate the economy. The equity market will go up, but not the economy. USD will also be strong against other currency as in the uncertain situation, USD is still a safer currency. But it would not last long being strong. It will be weaken by excess supply and inflation take place.
The money printed will flow to emerging market. Then emerging market will get overheated and they will try every possibility to try to fight inflation. This cycle happen and happen again.
on 20 -21 Sep, the FED is having a meeting. Would FED chairman come up with QE3???
My take is probably would, if not this month then next month.
US have got no other way out to simulate the economy. QE 1 1.7 Trillion money print and flood the market, QE2 600 Bil money printed and flood the market. Interest rate at real low value, but there is no way the economy is simulated at all. Cash printed are flowing into emerging economy, (where are those countries?? Asia Ex Jap). Obama have said that to keep interest rate at low level till 2013, which mean to say there will be lots of uncertainty till then.
In due of the president election next year, the democrat and the republican are still playing political game even their country are facing such a crisis.
USD is still the safe heaven currency only because they are still the world number one in term of most traded currency. You need to deal in USD for many things eg buy oil. Bonds market which has the highest liquidity in the world have almost half traded in USD.Which mean that in the world of uncertainty, USD is still the better currency.
If QE3 were to realize, it would have the same effect, they will buy long term bonds, they will flood the market and try to simulate the economy. The equity market will go up, but not the economy. USD will also be strong against other currency as in the uncertain situation, USD is still a safer currency. But it would not last long being strong. It will be weaken by excess supply and inflation take place.
The money printed will flow to emerging market. Then emerging market will get overheated and they will try every possibility to try to fight inflation. This cycle happen and happen again.
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