Nothing much. Waiting

Hey Folk

Exciting next week. on the 16,17 Sept next week we have the FOMC meeting. Rate hike or not is in that meeting. Whatever the result is we have F1 on the 18,19,20. So if FOMC do not work in your favour, chill over the weekend and start thinking only on the following Monday. Sibor will rise if interest rate rise took place so keep a look out of your loans.

Unemployment has dropped, however inflation is still not seen. I do not have a crystal ball to see if a rate hike will happen anot. The market this week show us very much that it is in a sideways waiting for the data next week.

Stock Market

The stock market on the weekly is on a downtrend. However it did not break the pivot at about 1833. Price have been moving in a range since 27 Aug which is about 2 weeks ago. My range finder which is a combination of indicator are telling me that a big move is coming. Let hope I catch it.

This is the S&P500 chart.

 

Price are hovering within range. The bottom white box is the support region that I am talking about and is not broken yet.

 

This is the STI chart

 

Same as the S&P500 we have a support region. STI is a follower market, so it is harder to read than the S&P500.

Let all wait for next week. Probably things will be clearer.

Seasonal tell me that we are going lower, however seasonal for years ending with 5 show that we are soon going higher. So is more like a reference.

 

short and sweet

cheers

 

 



Now What??

Early update as over the weekend i would be very busy

Next week we are having our election day. Whichever party you support please go for it. I always believe in a Chinese phrase that I learn when I was young. 分久必合，合久必分.     

‘There is bound to be unification after prolonged division and after prolonged division there is bound to be unification.’

Nothing is forever, in business, politic, country, friendship and even for love and family. 

Same for the market.  We as a country have 50 years of growth. Can we grow forever?? 

Have we reached the peak of our cycle??

This is the weekly chart of Gold

It seems to me that it is in a down trend since 2011. It have been down for 4 years. 

I would like to repeat that gold do have a cycle of about 30 years. The peak is 2011,
so the next 30 years then we may see the peak again. There are a lot of people
that do not believe and cant believe these due to traditional mindset that this
metal will never be out of fashion. Whatever you say, I think this metal is
going down below 700.


First of all, gold is a commodity. It have a cycle and it have a mean value. I had just 

explained the cycle the previous posting. All commodities have a mean
reversion. The mean is about the range of 500s, we had gold up to 1800 four
years ago. Now is slowly moving back to the mean. It happen 30 years ago from
2011, so track it back.


Gold is never a safe heaven when the stock market is not
doing well. If so then the gold should sky rocket in this recent drop. Also
when the financial crisis of 2007-08 happen, gold should have reach probably 3000???
But is now at about 1100. Compare the charts together, you will know since
history it is not.


So I will go short in this market for every bounce it have.









This is oil weekly chart.



It also look like a downtrend to me. So it is still short on bounce. However, the 

COT producers are heavy buy on this a few months back, which cause the rise in price at
current. So do be cautious. 


I have some opinion for this industry. Oil and gas industry
has always be an industry that pay good, high profit etc . However look at how
aggressive the green energy are coming. More and more auto companies are
developing electric car, more solar panel are used, more wind farm, more energy
efficient solution. I think slowly but that is going to be quite slow, things
may move not to the favour of oil and gas. This currently does not attribute to
the drop in oil price. It is more of demand issue and political issue in the
global situation that push the oil price lower.


Stock


There are people that asked me why do I only cover US
market. Simple it is the king of all market. I am looking into China but they
are not the major player yet. Far from it, the daily volume and the restriction
for foreigner to enter have formed an obstacle for that. So the US market can
tell the direction and move of all most markets. 



Singapore market is one of the most boring market. Honestly I had wrote this before that the govt had make it so safe that our STI is more for long term investment. They are
trying to protect the local from suffering volatility from speculation by hot
money and speculators and more. Which I think is good for the local but bad for
the virtual of the market.  I really hope whichever govt that come up will change this. 


I think we will form a downtrend base on my indicator this
week. However one very important things to note, we have not break below the
low that is created Sept 2014. For me I am still on the sideline. One more
thing to add, the seasonal is pointing to down for Aug thru Sept. My seasonal
is a statistic of the daily close price of certain month average out for 30
years. Is traditionally choppy this period of time.



cheers

Crash or not??

Hey Folk

Monday we seen a very wild swing in indices movement especially in the US. S&P 500 swing a good 120 points up and down. The real reason of selling as the news say are everywhere. So what the real news???? Is it China, or is it North Korea and South Korea, is it the FED, is it Ashley Madison etc etc ???

In 19 Oct 1987 it is a Monday, the stock market decided to come off about 23%. For many years till today, no one can justify or say what cause the massive drop intraday. Always dropped like these are unknown and the real reasons will remain as mystery.

Why bother about the reasons anyway. Does that make us money? The press have alot of things to say. They need to be the headline if not they will be out of job. Honestly, what does knowing the real culprit, where the real culprit cannot be known, help us in any money making.

What I know is there are more people selling then buying at the same point of time which cause market to move lower. Each transaction is a sell = buy. So for every seller there is a buyer. That mean to say, if the price is executed at that particular price there are seller and buyer. Simple as that. Why is there buyer at that price where everyone is saying is the end of the world??? Are they the foolish participant, the smart ones or are they the computers?

From the upward bias of the stock market, I do believe that predominately there are smart investors. There are sure to have foolish investor/trader that enter at the wrong time. There is also computer algo that uses speed to give them an advantage. The wild swing in the market movement are the Flash traders or the HFT. They have the ability to enter trades in split second causing the market to swing so wildly. I do admit their presence had make traditional lump sum investment for the long term less attractive and more demanding.

Here is the S&P500 chart. The drop came last week and see this week we are half way there. 

The indicators as said last week suggest that it is a uptrend in the long term but downtrend in the short term. So here we go, market moved up. Did I buy?? No, in fact i dint trade and watch it happened. At this volatile period, the best is to wait for the dust to settle. I am still a buyer in the market.

I still think that the stock market have still room to grow. China market may hit a double top. For regular investing approach investor, if your premium happen to catch the bottom, I really congratulate you. The COT I shared last week had shown huge buying, the level of buy that is now is many years high. This is not a timing tool. It just tell us that the smart money are buying in this huge drop. 

For now i am staying sideline, let observed further and the market will come to us.

Oil is another one that the COT data for the past few months had shown high level of producers buying into them. However, this market is in a massive downtrend so do not be too eager to go for a buy. 

Remember price rulzzz

cheers

Stock market topped and crash is in ...?

Hey folk

Welcome back or shall  I say I  think this way I can explain better and cover more markets rather than a lengthy whasapp or txt msg w/o picture. Many friends and clients are asking me to revive this blog, but lazy is the main reason that hinder me.

Let do a stock market focus only for this week.       Here We Go.....

Market have fell on Thursday and Friday a total of 6.5%.
I was just telling my colleaque on Wednesday that the US  market hover within a range of 2.6% up to down some big move might be coming. Then Thursday came and the selling set in.

The market have not seen a sell down of such magnitude for very long time.  The last time is in Sept 2014. A healthy correction range from 5-10% drop by expert. A crash is 20%. So far, after Sept 2014 we are always in the drop range of 3-5% and recover immediately creating greater heights.

To me whatever it is, as long as it suit an individual investment/trading objective that will be good. I will congratulate people who short the market.
*Confession* i had place my very small short entry since Tuesday, it is triggered on Wednesday. I had long term long position as well, which i think will be stop out soon. So net net for this time round I think I lost.

Stock market

S&P   Market have broke down a few support level. It might be heading next to 1970 then to 1830. The recent peak that we had is 2132 created in 20 Jul 2015. We can calculate where the 10% is and 20% is.

I do have a few fundamental indicators that tell if the market top or bottom. Right now 3 indicators are telling me the selling is going to continue. The other 5 are telling me that it is not the top yet.

These are fundamental data not technical charts, the fundamental are the ones that move the price but they are not timing indicators. They will tell where the big trend goes but little will they hint when the big trend will come.

Let me just name them:
1)Bond price
2)Bond yield curve
3)Commitment of trader report (COT)
4)Advance decline line
5)200 SMA (expert known as death cross)
6)Weekly Trend vs Weekly Range std dev
7)Semiconductor
8) Pivot point vs Advance COT

In 2007-08 crisis, all my fundamental indicators show that a top is in. Some of the indicators show 6 to 10 months in advance of the market crash. Even if you back test them for the past crisis eg dot com bubble, 1987 crash and etc its respond is 100%. As of current, the indicators tell me it is going into a correction, until then I would not be looking at changing fund or turning fully into shortng.

The other way to look at it is market is moved by price. Whatever or whoever say so ain't more right than the price. Price is always darn right and others can be  always darn wrong.
So if you are uncomfortable in your long position or exposure to the stock market in your portfolio, please cut lost or change to other asset classes.

Some news

Alot of question is still with the FED to increase rate or not. They said that their target are approaching but not achieved. The criteria are inflation to be 2% for the long term and unemployment to be 5.1% and lesser for the long term.With weak oil price and weak USD now ( USD have weaken since beginning of the week) how can we achieve inflation??

China is a country that the economy and government are one. Which mean to say the government have the power to do anything to turn up or down the economy. They wished to control the export market in the world so they devalue their currency. These are small steps to take to tell Uncle Sam maybe is time you call me big brother. China move had made alot of Asian countries devalue our own currency as well to remain competitive.

So that that for now.

FYI, this blog is created many years ago when i am an amateur trader. Many years after, I still think I am amateur trader. So do follow with your own dis question. Moreover, many of the things I thought I had mention before in here are not repeated, for the new comers please bear with me for the jargon or the terms i used.
**Also whenever I had a title saying crash or topped, the hits is going to be sky high. Human are optimistic in nature but love pessimistic news. Weird right. **

Weekly update 23 Jan

Hey Folk

Here we go again after a long break from posting. Trades are done. Let review what happen

ECB say rate unchanged, but 60bn bond purchase per month till Sept 2016. QE traditionally will spur stock market to move higher. So i guess the stock market is moving higher. In fact the rest of the world are doing QE one form or the other, only the US had stopped. So naturally, the US will again resume the leader of the world and the safe heaven and their USD will appreciate while the rest depreciate. 

Next week is FOMC meeting. 

Review from last week trades:

Took profit too early on S&P500 

current open position

Gold Long

This coming week

Gold - The trend is turned into a uptrend. 

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. However, i guess now is a period of no one dare to long and no one dare to short.

Stock -  Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.

China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Beware of dead cat bounce

cheers folk

Weekly update 27 Dec

Hey Folk

Here we go again

Review from last week trades:

Took some profit on China A50 and holding on to some
Took Full profit on GbpUsd

Long S&P500

current open position

China A50
S&P500

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. Let see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. It is good for the economy in the long run for low oil price. 

Stock -  Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.

China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. 

cheers folk

Weekly update 20 Dec China and America

Hey Folk

Here we go again

China the awaken dragon

Govt in China is cleaning up their own backyard in term of vices, corruption etc. They too are making their finance sector more robust at the same time open up their currency. These will only attract the already popular place for business. More people will want to go into this place.

At the same time alot of dealings with countries already by-pass using USD as the medium of exchange. In fact they deal in their own country's currency.

China had also become the world number 1 economy. Not just that but the biggest importer, which mean they are buying. 

All these will fuel the stock market of China that have been poor from 2008 till present. The stock market have awaken and is into the bull. Now it is a young bull ( a promising calf )

Under President Xi leadership, i think he would architect and create, reform, refurbish the country.

America still the big bro

Still the leader of the world and the big bro. Of course as a big bro, there are alot of things that you cannot dont care. If there is fighting here or there, there are some siblings who are sick or etc the big bro have to be there. These inevitable will make more friends or make more enemies. With these in mind, they are also trying to measure and balance the relationship with China.

When you are still a big bro and had performed as a bog bro, you give people the assurance. So in this juncture when there is any turbulence, investor still prefer the US.

US stock market will go higher and USD will go higher as well.
This will lead to currency war. (Elaborate on other posting in future)

Review from last week trades:

Took some profit on China A50 and holding on to some
Took Full profit on Usdpy

Long S&P500

current open position

China A50
S&P500

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. Let see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue. It is good for the economy in the long run for low oil price. 

Stock -  Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.US stock market may be capped. I do not see alot of room of movement till next year. But any price about 18000 in the Dow will let the market move higher.

China Stock market is a buy too. It have relive. Any dips is a buy. Moreover, the bull is young in this one. The chinese govt have introduce a little stimulus into their economy in around July. All stimulus like we know will boost the stock market

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. 

cheers folk