Hey Folk
Read this article, Prime Minister said to prepare for
slowdown in the economy. I consider this ‘insider information’. They have way
ahead information than we have. So embrace, tighten your belt. Sometimes it
maybe way ahead of what is actually going to happen. But it is very useful
information.
Fed meeting ended on 28 Oct Wed. Read what they say. No
rate raise yet. In my previous entries I had mention that no rate raise so
fast. GDP 3rd Qtr in the US missed forecast, pending home sales
dropped too. Will they rise rate in December? Let see the inflation rate.
Next let go
into a COT chart so maybe we will be in sync
This is a weekly
COT chart VS weekly Oil price
Red is the
commercial aka the Big Boys. Blue is the
funds. Green are the retail traders.
Weekly price of oil is in black.
In
2011:
The commercial build up their long position about since
the second quarter of 2011, buying when the oil price dip. Oil price went up
again in about the second quarter of 2012,
Notice that the small speculator or retail are extreme
seller when the price are low and extreme buyer when the price peaked.
In
2013:
Somewhat the same happen in second quarter of 2013,
commercial max buyer and retailer max seller, and the price went up.
In
2014:
Notice in start of 2014, the commercial are shorting,
they are shorting it for about 6 months, before the price of oil came off and
stay down for the next one year.
At the same time, the small speculator or the retail in
green are at extreme buying at the start of 2014, oil price went up abit and
the retail sold. Then they are back to extreme buying again when the oil price
is peaking while the commercial still are at extreme selling.
Now
Commercial are extreme seller, however the retail are
selling into it as well. So there is not a ideal setup on the COT. We see price
of oil rally on Wednesday night.
Positions
As the COT suggest from last week post, I am still short
on EurUsd and took a good profit. This week COT suggest a good short setup for
Gold. I am in too. I also still hold long position in the S&P500 and took
profit. We are still in a downtrend in the stock market. On Friday it had a
outside bar that close negative. This can’t confirm anything yet. Let wait and
see.
Singapore stock wise, start to look at REITS. Not to buy
but to short sell. Capital commercial trust, Suntec, Cambridge are in my list.
cheer
