Rate Raised, One belt one road dream

Hey Folk

Rate raise is back.

Rate raise again. A lot of companies have a better cash flow and balance sheet than before. So right now I have a 0.5% rise in rate, do you really think it will affect all these companies tremendously?

I do not think that these will drastically affect any companies as they have enough to spare and are prepared for that.

With the rate raise, I think investors will take advantage of taking profit on USD and later load back in.

For Najib country goers, I had some discussion and research suggesting SGD/MYR may go to 3.4.

One belt One Road

Let take a look at the world map and see the one belt one road ambitions of the Republic of China.

You can clearly see that there will be roads or railway connecting China to every parts of the world. These will shorten time of transport. Also in my opinion by pass the strategic port of Singapore as we become not that relevant in term of a port. So invest in China. CSI 300 or China A50. These will sure bring cai yuan gun gun (hanyu pingying)

There is a 10 years cycle of stock market downturn and it should happen on the next year. Cycles are a guide and not a formula. As of now I believe in the cycle and also believe that market still have rooms to rise further.

I maybe wrong. Time will tell.

Cheer

Triumphant China

Hey Folk

So far I am so right about the market. US market soar. China market Soar. Whoever have funds in your policies or own funds in those area….Congratz.

Let talk about Trump

Businessman that wish to make America Great again. His fiscal stimulus lead to bond price lowering, stock price to move higher and increase inflation. Lay man term is he spend money within his country to build facilities like road, railway, builidngs, refurbish old builidngs etc etc….some sort like in SG, we always see them dig things on the road and make the road newer.

These will improve employment, with improve employment people are more willing to spend and thus increase inflation. But these will increase tons of debt to their own country. But they are a big country and leader of the world (slowly will not be so significant), so they can do this.

Slowly after these are done, they will still need to look outwards of their country but depend on who is the next president to play the game. It is always like that for many civilization in history.

China, Capitalism or communism??

A last time inward looking country now turning outwards. They are flexing all money they have like the obnoxious friend, throwing money at any country that are willing to work with them.

They wants to be the leader and this is their chance. The one belt one road if successful will be awesomely magnificent plan. They will practically connect the world to them. The plan is extremely ambitious. But being Chinese, I know they can do it. It just take time and determination and they will make it happen.

China in the olden days, (cant remember which dynasty) have the largest GDP in the world and are the richest. The Chinese know the power of unity.

They are too shaking up their internal problems and extending economic growth to the world. It take time but they will do it. Also being Chinese myself, I do believe that in business they are selfish. In hardship we can thrive and endure together, but in fortune is only mine. I do see some of these playing out in China and Singapore relationship. Just my opinion.

These are the advantage of big countries with huge population and sheer land mass and resource. Honestly, however miracle Singapore is, we cant do that. Unless we can be the next Silicon Valley as the GDP of just that state is among the top in the world.  I love this place but let be realistic and think about it.

I was having a conversation with some friends and I said our grandfather migrate from China to escape war and to find a better future for themselves. I think there will be a day that our grandson will need to migrate back to China or other places in Asia to look for better future.

So in short. For funds wise stay in US and China. They are the better ones. The rest will be follower. These 2 areas might bring enough money for us to relax one corner.

one more thing, that is I do think facebook, alphabet and tesla will have a very good future. if spacex is listed it would be too.

Cheer

Compare and Conclude

Hey Folk

Let do some stock indices comparison.

First we have the Shanghai Composite (SSE) VS S&P500

The above picture is a 10 years data.

You can see that SSE have a better performance than S&P500. If you invest 10 years ago 1 Sept 2006 till 31 Aug 2016, you will profit 90% for SSE and 68% for S&P500.

SSE perform better than the S&P500, but note that the new high created in 2007 in the SSE is not taken out. So it is not a perpetual uptrend yet unlike the S&P500.

S&P has taken the time of test to perform for many decades. You can look it up from google. SSE is a relatively new market and have not perform so well too. Looking back into 2000 till now, SSE usually have a ‘burst’ movement which mean they will have extreme expansion for a couple of years and then slump for many years in other words is extreme volatile. But for these 10 years, if you invest in SSE, you almost double your investment. Maybe they will be the next star.

Let see the next comparison

S&P500 VS Hang Seng index (HSI)

The above picture is a 10 years data.

HSI is performing at 35% while S&P500 is at 68%

 The last comparison

S&P500 ETF ( SPY) VS Straits time index ETF (EWS)

The above picture is a 10 years data.

Why ETF? There are no data on google for STI. So I got to use ETF. Note that ETF can be directly invested and have charges, thus the return for the same period is lower.

For 10 years, SPY have 67.9% while EWS have 19.9%. I am quite sad about this as Singapore market is always such a lagger.

Zoom into the picture in the year 2015 and 2016, when the SPY come off abit, the EWS elaborate it but the other way up is not like that.

If you have a chance to google it yourself these 2 ETF and compare them to the maximum duration, you will realize that STI is always lagging. These pictures above take reference from 1 Sept 2006 as the start of comparison. So you might see certain expansion that is exaggerating. If you compare them longer, you realize S&P are always the leader.

Another thing about the stock market are they are correlated. They move in synchronous.

However only S&P right now created historical new high but the rest of the other indices have not. This show the strength of S&P and the weakness of others.

Jobs data was bad yesterday, rate raise anot 2 weeks later? Stock market maintain the pose.

For Gold Bug, I still do not think gold will go back up, probably it will rebound to 1500. But still I am bearish on Gold

Cheers

Herding or Sheparding

Hey Folk

Price rules once again in the US market, there show a divergent in indicator Vs price. Indicator are showing that price should go down. Price on the other hand just keep moving up. So that why we see S&P500 making historical high again.

Will there be lesser upside if an indices moved to historical high?

The answer to this is no. No statistical proven that this has happen. What went high can go higher and what go low can go lower. These happen during certain period of time. Honestly there is no indication in the fundamental data that I have that a huge drop is coming. These data actually show and support the up move and further up move. But I do think a dips or consolidation should take place.

Seasonal trend?

Traditionally these period into Sept will have wild market swing in a consolidation range. Then into October is when the market will start to have up lift. This is just a guide so do not follow it like a holy grail.

Asia

The up lift in the market will be a global issue. The strongest market will move and bring the weaker ones along. China in my analysis will bottom soon and should be the next engine in the equity area.

Why actually market goes up these question had a lot of people asking me. If I had to answer them the right way I will say that the global economy are turning better. It is slow but there are slow progression. There is a US election coming up in Nov so chances are the market will move higher.

The real and right way that is in my own reasoning and I see from my data and indicators are there are lots of buying going on. More retails account are selling or shorting. The big boys on the other hand are accumulating since the start of the year. Knowing the real reason do know fetch you profit. Knowing what they are doing does.

Gold

I do see that gold will come off. But it is in a no mans zone now. More to the upside in price. But fundamental data totally do not support this price. I do see more retail buying and the big boys are selling.

In investing that I know and learnt is do not follow the herd. Usually following the herd do know get you anywhere. However the Shepard is always the one that divert the herd to the desire place. Follow the shepard but don't trust the shepard. Because sometime we need to know when not to follow a person too closely, when to let go. The trick is how to differential a herd or shepard and how to differential when shepard is killing other shepard.

Cheer

Historical high 2

Hey Folk

Part 2 of it.

Let look at Dow Jones Industrial from yahoo finance

It had already form historical high. Now is about 18,500. Probably it will pass the psychology 20,000 mark. Which is about another 10% for 3 to 6 mths.

Next look at the line that is drawn, the start of the line happen about in 2011. (This is a illustration base on me and my peers age. We graduate about 2010, working for 6mth to a year and have enough saving to invest. )
At that point of time, Dow Jones is about 11,000. Over 6 years till to date, if you invest in Dow Jones you will have a profit of 68%. Just putting your money to work. There are shorter term technique to capture good gains but that need a lot of effort. So if you think thats too much effort and  is not your cup of tea, just find something good and invest in them.

Next STI from yahoo finance

It clearly has not break the historical high of 3805 created in Oct 2007. Now it is 2928. It is clearly a lagger. If you have invested at the start of the line that I drew, it is about end of 2010 which is about 2750. For 6 years, you only had a profit of about 7%. Compare that with Dow Jones of 68%.

Even if before the Lehman Crisis you buy into Dow Jones at 13,930 VS STI at 3805 ( these are historical high price in 2007) . For Dow, one will have a profit of 32.8% while for STI one will have a lost of 23%. These scenario actually happen to a lot of older folk that buy into CPF investment or any other forms of investment during that period of time.

So

1) Invest in a good horse. Easiest to identify is to compare throughout the  breadth eg same industry and get the best.

2) Conditions will change as time. When condition change leader and trend will be changed.

There is no one regime/ruler/party that rule forever, there is no one era the same, there is no one idea that stay forever. Even for a family, you cant keep your children by your side forever. Most of the time is when the best of the best happen and these best usually become a history.

Look for the condition that will displace the current leader, when the condition occur look for another runner. Now the US market is the leader, will it change to Asia market one day?? Look for that condition.

Also lots of data are publicly available from yahoo and google. One can pluck them and do loads of research on it.

Till next time

Cheers

Historical high

Hey Folk

Quick and dirty. Market are bullish. So many things happened and is going to happen but is ok. it is a BUY as of now.

This is Nasdaq Composite from yahoo finance

The line that I drawn is the historical high created in 2015. It is about 5200+. Now Nasdaq is about 5000. I do think that it can storm pass that historical high. As Nasdaq is suppose to be the leader of the leader of all market, one can use this as an example to calculate roughly where to profit take. The horizon for now is about 3-6mths. Where exactly will it land is a billion dollar question. This can only serve as a guide.

Taking bond and stock relationship as another guide. The bond market had make new high again and again. So if stock are lagger and it follow the bond movement, it may too have these phenomenon.

Another indicator, taking the week advance stock vs decline stock,( this indicator usually is use to pick the top) are showing that it is supporting stock up move.

Another indicator, VIX have show buy on the 3rd day after Brexit which I follow till today. VIX not showing anything else as of now.

Talking about S&P500, is a weekly uptrend but most of the technical indicator are showing divergent and overbought so becarful. But this do appear in extended up run.

However the run is Pls do exercise due diligence and proper money management.

quote from  Jesse Livermore 'The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight'

quote from Soros 'If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring'

cheers

Brexit

Hey Folk

Britain have decided to exit the EU. It is the beginning of something new. Disintegration

More countries will follow suit what Britain have done and even within Britain, Scotland wants to stay in the EU. They too can hold a referendum to be independent and join the EU.

This will surely impact Euro dollar and Sterling directly for a period of time. So I think these 2 currency towards the USD will be suppressed. Despite central bank coming to intervene the market.

However, Britain and EU will take 2 years for the ‘divorce to be sealed’. New trade deals, regulation and legislation have to be discussed and implement. New border control law and etc. For now it is more of a political catastrophe than a financial catastrophe, however I do think that there may be certain hidden ‘financial catastrophe’ factors are building up, maybe worse than the magnitude of Lehman.

If you happen to have this book titled “one man view of the world” by Mr Lee which was publish about 5 years ago, he had pointed out that EU will fail eventually unless a great leader come about. When ask about in his life time who he consider a great leader he mentioned Deng XiaoPing.

I did go through the book again and I found many similarity of things that is happening now was mentioned in his book.

So how does it relate to our pocket??? Short Euro and GBP for the long term. Europe stock market will not be good either. My pick will be US and follow by China.

I also obvious that there are not much impact on Shanghai market when Brexit happen. So maybe the next run will be there.

With this exit, I think the FED will not be able to raise rate again. Bank of England said that they are going to do some easing this summer. So rate hike maybe delay again. Which i think is good for the stock market.

Conspiracy theory, FED Yellen is a democrats she is more in favour with Hillary than Trump. And Trump said he will replace her if he is elected. Maybe she want to boost the market up for Hillary.

Cheer

Britain Exit or not? This Friday Black or not

Hey Folk

This Friday Britain decision to be in or out of EU.

So what if it is out. My analysis as follow

There are surely effect if Britain leave EU, probably that explain the sluggish performance of the England team as the players are very worried of their future.

So what would happen?

1)    The bank of England have assess the long term economic consequences of Briexit, it is a loss of 3000 to 5000 pound annually per household for the next 5 years before Britain settle down.

2)    The pound will surely depreciate very quickly. I think it would drop about 15% to more than 20% from current price. Which will bring the pound to be almost the same value as the Euro. That’s mean joining Euro despite out of EU. However one can argue that a devaluation will be helpful for the economy, but these effect now is less significant than what happen in 1992.

3)    The Bank of England do not have the ‘necessary ammunition’ to reduce interest rates as rates are low. I think there is very little the monetary policy can be done for these.

4)    Trading condition now have changed so devaluation of currency might not help England at all as compare what happen in 1992. This is mainly due to regulation and cross border issues.

However the reasons, people are driven by emotion at times rather than logical deduction. That why the other side of the Atlantic Ocean ban immigrants is a good idea and people likes it so much.

I do agree this is a golden opportunity to make a lot of money, or lose a lot of money. Like how Georges Soros broke the Bank of England in 1992. But according to him the planning, analysis and execution take 10 years.

Anyway it goes good luck to everyone.

Cheer

300% per annual return investment

Hey Folk

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/invest/commission-free-stock-trading-by-year-end

Technology have increase competition. The way business are done is different. The above article is more like a CFD firm. Usually they don’t have commission, they earn from the deposit we bank into their account, they earn from the spread, some real bad ass CFD firm earn from the bet that is against your position. Good and bad at the end of the day.

The hard truth of investing.

A lot of people want to earn a lot from investing. The truth is if any money manager can achieve 10% per year for a extended period of time he/she is consider the real deal.

There are lots of system or method out there that generate much higher return say up to 60% to even 300% a year. But usually they do not last the test of time. My painful experience tells me that these system usually last for a good 1 month to a year before collapsing.

The simplest and easiest way of investing is a monthly contribution of the same amount of money or a lump sum into a very good assets class and wait. The next question is how to identify the good assets class. These take some skills to do that. Also with these fast changing environment, one have to be on top of the game to know when to change asset.

Investors usually make a mistake of believing in short term gain and not long term benefits. I had tried, tested and experience these part of investment that I agree there are system that give very high returns in a short period of time but these system have got very high risk and short period of effectiveness. Buying a long term investment and wait for 20 to 40 years like what Warren Buffet does is still the single best lazy man and idiot proof method of making money.

Confession

I do have many accounts that trade different instrument and different method.

Over the last few years, the short term trading method account do perform well in the initial period, and as time passed they will go under water. These are the account that give you the excitement, but do not give u the reward as time pass. The swing trading account perform fairly well. These are the account that usually ride a trend until it get exhausted.

I do have long term accounts, I buy SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and keep for a long time. These are soooo boring, but you will see it grow slowly. There are no excitement at all, no stress, just buying them when the market is right. I did a calculation, if you buy a 10k amount and the instrument rise at the rate of 8% per year. In 40 years you will have a value of 21 times your capital.

Cheer

Rate raise Alert

Hey Folk

Rate raise alert again. The Fed had say that most likely they will raise the rate in June. The same condition must be met for rate raise, they are inflation and jobs.

I am not going to predict if it going to raise the rate eventually in June, I really do not know if that is really going to happen or are they just trying to prepare the market. The job of a trader is to read and understand current situations then act on it and not trying to predict the future. So let not speculate about all these.

The situation now for stock market is still short term downtrend, long term up trend. You can choose to stay at the side line for now until things are more clear to buy again.

The above chart predicts the move of Gold. The chart is in weekly. It will not tell the magnitude but duration of the direction. The chart show the relationship between gold and bond price inverted.

These are some interesting tools to share. During my research I manage to get them out. Again these are not timing indicators, it just tell us what to expect in the near future. As much as I cant predict, but there is certain intermarket relationship that can tell us some stories. Market is moved by conditions and not charts.

Cheer

Shaky moment

Hey Folk

The market now is like what we have in December last year. Shaky again.

Overall we are still in a low interest rate environment and the Advance/Decline also show that is moving up. Bond price is still in the up move and no big divergent against the stock market.

The big picture is still up, but in the near term the market maybe coming off.

Stock market top is much easier to spot than stock market bottom. There is no sign that the market is toppish for now. I wish to point out something, stock market are usually upward bias. To beat the market, we can just maintain a long term buy position and spot the toppish picture and short the market. In this case, one will beat the market.

Take note some swiss based bank in Singapore are going to charge u interest for depositing Euro or Swiss franc. So instead of getting interest you are paying interest. This is the negative interest rate environment.

Cheer

BUY BUY BUY

Hey Folk

I witness the Commitment of Traders report on the stock market have multiyear high commercial buying. In Layman, the Big Boys are accumulating position in the stock market at a record high level. This level was seen in 2011, where the market went higher thereafter. The S&P500 had also change from downtrend to up trend. I still think we have some rooms to the upside. However there are certain key price level in the S&P500 that is still a resistance.

If these wave of up move realize, it will naturally bring the rest of the market in the world to go up as well.

Gold on the other hand had commercial selling to multi year high. In short the Big Boys are selling these precious metal at record level. This precious metal will go lower in prices in a slow manner. Gold can hover in a price range for a period of time and then a break down.

Cheer

Recession??

Hey Folk

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/singapore/initiatives-underway-to/2606834.html

Maybe there is a chance for Spore stock market to be alive again. But is always a double age sword. More hot money in mean retail investor are easier to lose out.

So let see how things are rolled out.

Last week most important things FOMC

I quote from FOMC statement

“Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft. A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market. Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.”

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20160316a.htm

Who say there is recession???

Market continue to go higher.

See this very recent event. Singapore budget day

Find the full text in here http://www.singaporebudget.gov.sg/budget_2016/BudgetMeasures.aspx

Quote “The global economic outlook has softened since the start of the year, alongside a fall in oil prices and increased volatility in global financial markets. The advanced economies are expected to see continuing modest but uneven recovery. US growth is expected to improve slightly compared to 2015 as domestic demand improves. The Eurozone is expected to pick up slightly due to an improving unemployment situation and continued easing of monetary conditions. However, uncertainty remains over whether China’s transition to a more sustainable growth path may encounter short-term challenges. 

The Singapore economy grew 2.0% in 2015, and is expected to continue growing at a modest pace of 1-3% for 2016…..”

Direct copy and paste, see what our finance ministry have said.

I think the market still have some rooms to go up.

Cheer

Quantitative Easing

Hey Folk

Let take a look at some QE or in long quantitative easing in different places.

QE in short is central bank try to simulate the economy where traditional method is not useful anymore. Layman term…..

US started QE program in Nov 2008 that is call QE1, then QE2 in Nov 2010 and QE infinity in Sept 2012 till 2014.

European Union start QE program in May 2009, argue for very long over EU itself and fundamental problems, still cant solved. Then another QE infinity in Jan 2015. Another expansion of QE is on March 2016. Mario also say that this is about all they have.

Japan is in a very deflation mode ever since 1980s. So they start QE in Oct 2010, Aug 2011, QE infinity April 2013 and expand QE infinity in Oct 2014.

The UK started the QE in March 2009.

We can see that most of the region or country started later than the US. US have a better frequency than EU. EU have got too much internal problems like Greece and their internal structure. Their QE frequency are so long apart so expect them to recover much slower than the US.

Japan had already be in deflation for more than 20 years, the QE now may take much longer to take effect.

Thus this is one of the reason we see US market rallying. The rest of the market are following.
China are getting through its problems. Maybe they are seeing some light at the tunnel.

Cheer

Just the way we want it

Hey Folk

After so long…..

The market had perform the way I posted in the many previous post. It had rally!!!

Thank you if you believe in me.

To many of you I can see the portfolio increase in value. It is time to reshuffle the funds. I will let u know but it is still up to you if you want to do so.

This week the most important data is on the 10 March Thursday ECB meeting. Then next week is the FED rate decision.

We might be in a pull back soon after rising up quite abit. However, overall I still see a rally in the stock market going into May. US being the strongest market, Europe second, and Asia weakest. Maybe China will turn out to be the strongest among the weakest. Well for Singapore Index, let just forget about them for awhile.

Let zoom in and see what happen.

US had a GDP growth of 2% and a inflation rate increase from 0.2% to 1.4% in just 4 months. China missed it GDP expectation of 6.9% to 6.8%. Eurozone had a GDP growth of 0.3%. it has been a small fractional growth for quite some time already and a inflation rate of -0.2%.
There aint no region that are in negative GDP growth.
No recession.

But I agree a lot of people are fear of slow growth, which is real. (However, I am thinking certain catalysis are already present in these environment to let growth continue.)
The fear of slow growth lead people to be pessimistic. Which make them sell the stock market.
So I pick up some S&P500 contract up around the 1880s level and 1900s level, took profit for some and holding to some. At current as I am typing S&P500 is at 1993s level.

Until next time....

Cheer

Deflation

Hey Folk

Today is the third day of the Chinese calendar. I wish everyone Good Health and Wealth for you and family.

We have been in a inflationary economy for many donkey years. Will we changed?? Will we be in a new world order??

Japan have introduce a negative interest rate environment. Mean if you put money in the bank, instead of earning interest, you need to pay bank interest. They wish that there are more spending in the economy. These is a period of deflation. Where price do not go up, it goes down. Because it is going down, you will wait and wait and wait before you buy. Of course, my explanation is in a nutshell. The more professional explanation is like a few page long.

Anyway, the world is in a great depression or deflation in the 1929s. People whom had experience this period are either already dead or too young back then to know what is happening. So it is very new to the world and not many people or no one at all knows how to handle this new situation. It is something like if the Fed raise rate, it is new to a lot of traders and financial analysis as rate are depressed for a good 9 years.

Will we really go into these??? I do not know, but some of famous investors said so. I think if these were to happen it will not be so soon. Probably another 5 years to a decade.

On Chinese New Year day, our PM said that we will not be in a Global Financial Crisis. Believed him. It is a slowdown. But probably like in the 07-08 crisis, they have already something up in their sleeve to prevent Singapore to be hit hardly???

Back to focus, I said that Singapore market is drying up in volume. I also know that they have appoint a new CEO a local instead of having a foreigner. Hope that he can revive the Singapore market. I really hope that these happen.

STI key number to hold is 2530. Once break, please use CFD to short. Remember this market is already in a bear.

Bonds are making new high this week. So portfolio with bonds should see certain improvement by end of month. Fund/unit trust are always slower.

My take is a rally in US market end of Feb. Then it will bring the world market to rally as well. Some market whom are already in a bear will be a dead cat bounce. ( mean even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height).

I may be wrong. So please do not take it at 100%.

Cheer

Bear Bull Crash Rally

Hey Folk

Let look at some of the major market

Singapore Market weekly chart the equivalent of STI.

Look at the chart. It span from 2011 to now. Our STI are already in the bear market since last year. I do see some divergent in the indicators. So I think a rebound is due. But this is a rebound in a bear market and given the weakness of this market, when the strong market rally it might just have minimum influence on the upside.

Anyone wish to participate in this market have to be cautious. Also I did say before that our exchange is really dead. There is not much volume.

This is China A50. A ETF equivalent to SSE. This is a weekly chart

This is a wild market. It went up wildly start of 2015 and came down within the same year. This market is not in a bear yet. If it break up around 11,000 area and stay, this market is charging again.

From the indicator, it say to me that there are no more strength to the downside. From price point of view it did not break the previous low, which is a pivot point on that week of 23 Aug 2015.

This is Nikkei equivalent. This is a weekly chart

This market is not in bear yet too. It actually follow very closely to the S&P500 market. This market still have strength.

This is EuroStoxx. This is a weekly chart.

Still have strength to move higher. Not a bear yet. Just a change of trend from up to down. Comparing to Nikkei, this market is stronger.

From indicators, there are divergent.

This is Dow Jones weekly chart

The Strongest market in the world. All indicators tell me there is a upmove.

I forecast a rally coming end of Feb. This will be a last leg. However, that is just a forecast. Along the way, I have to see the accumulation and other correlations.

So the strongest to the weakest market Dow, EuroStoxx, Nikkei, Chinaa50, STI.

We will find that Asia have the weakest market. Eg of some are Taiwan, KL, Korea etc

US President have announce on the State of Union speech that America is at the best now and still the world best. I think they will still lead the way.

China is the second best and still the second best now. Prior to the crisis all raw materials are purchased by China thus all the high prices. Now they are not buying that why all commodities are at very low price which in turn affect a lot of emerging market due to their economy structure.

Take a look at abalone, is it cheaper now??

Also low oil price actually is the cause of not so good economy, but also mean lower cost of doing business which make economy better.

Cheer

Market crash market slide

Hey Folk

A fresh start!!

Let me jump right in to the market first. I think the US market is going to stage a last leg rally. This may create a new high. There are a lot of commercial buying since 14 Dec 2015 till today.

This will pull the world wide stock market to a rally as well. The weak market will stage a rebound. The weaker market are STI, HSI, KLCI, SSE etc. Most of them are Asia market. If you have position you may wish to unload.

The forecast

Stock Market Forecast for 2016 is not at all pleasant. Stock market will transit into bear market in 2016. I think there maybe a rally coming in soon for the first half of the year. If the FED raise rate as plan, by June it will be the third rate hike and is when the market turn bear.

I missed my 2015 stock forecast by 11 points in the S&P 500. I foresee it as a positive year but it end up to be a negative year.

Oil will still be going down at least for the first half of the year. This instrument is getting harder to predict. Some of my indicators is telling me that it will be mixed for the first half of the year.

Gold is staging a rebound, but is still a downtrend.

For Singapore stock investors

Singapore market is suffering a lack of participation in the market. There are very little investors coming into the market. We are a first world economy, a financial hub but if our stock market do not have a lot of investor then we might have a problem.

First of all, I think the no contra rule have kill the market. Also overprotective of retail investors by the regulator deny the interest of speculators and funds or hot money coming into Singapore. I really think we should not be so protective. The market is dog eat dog world. It is unfair as retail investor will never have sufficient information and liquidity like the funds or hot money, but that is the market.

Read this

http://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/business-leaders-call-for-cpf-monies-to-be-invested-in-singapore-shares-to-help?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#xtor=CS1-10

Yes we are safe, stable and predictable but that do not cook up the market. Imagine if there is little liquidity in the market, we can be very safe, stable and predictable but price of stock do not move or move very very slowly. It do not justify.

cheers