Hey Folk
A fresh start!!
Let me jump right in to the market first. I think the US market is going
to stage a last leg rally. This may create a new high. There are a lot of
commercial buying since 14 Dec 2015 till today.
This will pull the world wide stock market to a rally as well. The weak
market will stage a rebound. The weaker market are STI, HSI, KLCI, SSE etc.
Most of them are Asia market. If you have position you may wish to unload.
The forecast
Stock Market Forecast for 2016 is not at all
pleasant. Stock market will transit into bear market in 2016. I think there
maybe a rally coming in soon for the first half of the year. If the FED raise
rate as plan, by June it will be the third rate hike and is when the market
turn bear.
I missed my 2015 stock forecast by 11 points in the S&P 500. I
foresee it as a positive year but it end up to be a negative year.
Oil will still be going down
at least for the first half of the year. This instrument is getting harder to
predict. Some of my indicators is telling me that it will be mixed for the
first half of the year.
Gold is staging a rebound, but
is still a downtrend.
For Singapore stock
investors
Singapore market is suffering a lack of participation in the market.
There are very little investors coming into the market. We are a first world
economy, a financial hub but if our stock market do not have a lot of investor
then we might have a problem.
First of all, I think the no contra rule have kill the market. Also
overprotective of retail investors by the regulator deny the interest of
speculators and funds or hot money coming into Singapore. I really think we
should not be so protective. The market is dog eat dog world. It is unfair as
retail investor will never have sufficient information and liquidity like the
funds or hot money, but that is the market.
Read this
Yes we are safe, stable and predictable but that do not cook up the
market. Imagine if there is little liquidity in the market, we can be very
safe, stable and predictable but price of stock do not move or move very very
slowly. It do not justify.
