Hi folk
The forecast of 2012, are base on seasonal trend, cycles, and chart pattern. However, i would not show any chart here, just the explanation only.
USD would be the safe heaven currency as Europe economy are still very uncertain. Asia like India, china too
are having lesser export because of what happen in the West.
So investor would rather put their money in a place where chance of default is almost zero, which is the USD.
Equity wont be a good option as the economy is uncertain, Gold is a good bet but with USD going higher gold price will be hammered. Moreover, there wont be interest given even if you have gold.
Bonds is also a good bet but as US try to shake up the economy, coupon from bonds will remain low.
Dont have to consider bonds in Europe, they are at risk of default.
USD have been moving in inverse relation to the stock market.
So if USD get stronger the stock market get weaker.
Until a day when everything ia back to norm, is when you see USD move along with the equity market.
For the seasonal chart on Equity market, in detail we will see slow up move or even side way movement in beginning of 2012, then a top in Mar, then market falling till abt jun/jul, a rebound then fall again to oct forming a lower low. Then the election rally.
Note that there are too much govt intervention in the market these few years. They can defiant all odds.
But one day the market will be immune to these and would not react to any intervention.
Maybe the election rally will be started by QE3.
Let see where we end on 30 dec 2011. Most likely we will end the same at the end of 2012.
It is a waste that in Singapore market there are not or even no public available data that can be extracted to have these study.
So stocks in SG tend to be harder to forecast.
Gold in my opinion will mimic what happen in the 1970s-80s. A down move and then stagnant for years then pick up again. I can be totally
wrong about this.
Cheers. Have a good 2012 ahead. Wish all of you Good Wealth, Good Health, Good Romance. Happy trading and good luck.
