Monday, August 30, 2010

Cost of diversification in investing

In short term trading, the risk is the price fluctuation and the psychological effect of market participant on the prices.

In long term investing, the risk is the company bust and wind up business.
So in long term investing i also believe in diversification. Diversification comes with a cost. If you want to diverse the portfolio yourself, you need big big money, probably 500k for Singapore market. (What you mean by diverse in SG, our economy depend alot on others, so by buying the shares in singapore market alone with 500k is not really diverse. Bcos you are subjected to country risk)

You need to diverse in different region and sector. Woow mean need more than 500k to do so.....yes of course...

The cheaper alternative is investing in unit trust.Is like REIT, a collection of investment. You can tap on different region, sector, market. The fund manager bonus,reputation is peg to the fund price.

Of course there are cost involve. ETF have cost involve, Unit trust have cost involve. There is no free lunch and there is nothing that is free. Unless u can do research on your own on all the stocks that can make your portfolio really diverse and also unless you have that cash to buy all these, there may not be any cost. Most people wont have the expertise, time and resource to do that.Even for trading when you are working, pls really think of the physical constraint before start to trade. Can you check your stock in a meeting? Can you check your stock when on site, in a lab?pls consider it carefully, it can be done but make sure you still do your job properly.

If you cant and you need to rely on some expert to invest for you there is a cost.For any outsourcing, you need a cost. That the fact of life. We are not expert in all things. A doctor cant be an expert in wafer fabrication. A wafer fabrication engineer cant be the best chef. A chef cant be the best waiter.Etc Etc.If you are so conscious of the cost, then you could never be able to reach another height or achieve your goals.

Some things about REIT

What is REIT?? Real Estate Investment Trust is the name.

For most people, investing in real estate, is financially out of reach. But what if you could pool your resources with other small investors and invest in large-scale commercial real estate as a group?

REITs are corporations that own and manage a portfolio of real estate properties and mortgages. It is like Unit Trust or Mutual fund. This allow anyone to buy shares in a publicly traded REIT. With this, they offer the benefits of real estate ownership without the headaches or expense of being a landlord.In other words, it enable you to own real estate as part of your portfolio.

Investing in REITs also provides the important advantages of liquidity and diversity. Unlike actual real estate investing, these shares can be quickly and easily sold. And because you're investing in a portfolio of properties rather than a single building, it is diverse and you face less financial risk.

REIT distribute most of their taxable income to investors, the source of fund they get from is through external capital. REIT just like stock collect fund through IPO. These fund are used to buy, develop and manage real estate. (So is like a unit trust that does IPO) Income is generated through leasing , renting or selling properties. So when a REIT pay out dividend they are equally distributed among shareholder.

REITs can provide both current income and long-term appreciation.
How the REIT management and trustees are compensated will determine the REIT payout to investor. If compensation is based on the value of the REIT's assets, management is usually concentrating on investing in additional properties for capital appreciation. If the basis for determining compensation includes dividends or current earnings, the REIT's management may be motivated to increase dividend yield, possibly at the expense of long-term appreciation.

For REIT investing, it can provide a long term capital appreciation and good dividend payout. So please check on the past record of dividend payout (at least 5 yr ) but note that past performance is not a representative of future performance.Be wary of high yields. If there have been excessive capital gain distributions, this can be a sign that the income is coming from nonrecurring events and will not continue for long. Make sure the REIT is not selling off properties to provide income, because future rental income will be affected.

profit from emini s&p

Emini s&p500 cover at 1066

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Some updates

Short on Emini S&P500 on 19 Aug 1074.25...current price 1056

Look at the bond price is going up...so the relationship is again proven.
Mkt weakness may continue for the nxt 2 weeks using the 17 week cycle

Exited straitasia today @2.13 profit from entery price of 2.05

exited yanlord yesterday @ 1.84 profit from entry price of 1.8

cut lost ezion yesterday 0.63 lost from 0.66

cut lost Noble 1.65 19 Aug lost from entry 1.66

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Relationship between bond, S&P 500 and US dollar

This is the relationship between US dollar and bond


This is the relationship between S&P500 and bond

Friday, August 20, 2010

Regarding fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis is not jus knowing the PE ratio, EPS, ROI etc...This are important but the most important are still the company cashflow, income statment, balance sheet.A examination of 3,5,7,10 years of these data is necessary to make a sound investment decision.
Next understand the business of the company, for example one need to know the nature of the business, how easy is it for new player to enter the business, is the business easy to monopolies, how big is the company in the industry, what is the forecast for this industry??
Frankly i am not a fundamental guy, i am a technical trader.I am train in these aspect of fundamental analysis before but really it is not my cup of tea.Fundamental investing is really about investing the value of the company,investing in the business, something that you really want to own.The world most successful investor Warren Buffet use these approach.
Getting to know the cashflow,income statment, balance sheet is not difficult, understanding the business, the way to do the business is the most difficult thing to achieve. That why Warren Buffet say that diversification is for people who do not know what they are doing.Yes is true. Unless we can be like him whom understand the business, know how the business should be run and able to have coffee with the CEO, we still need to diverse in the long term investment.Put it another way, if we know the things like Warren Buffet then we dont have to diverse, work or worry anymore.\
So for average joe, investing in the long run still need diversification.

17 week cycle

I have notice most indices in the world obey a 17 weeks cycle. Which mean every 17th week a low will be found.The market do not 100% obey the cycle(if it is 100% then i would make the last trade in my life) however it give you an indication where it might head next.
Try to identify the cycle yourself, if you have any question can drop me an email.
Right now we are in the 13th week.There is 4 more weeks to complete the cycle.

Profit and Loses

Straitasia long 2.05 current price 2.13
yanlord long 1.8 current price 1.84
indoargi long 2.43 cut lost 2.32 on 17 Aug (lost)
ezion long 0.66 current price 0.64
Noble long 1.66 current price 1.65

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Losses

Cut lost indoagri 2.32 today (Lose)

Noble long 1.66

Genting very hot stock, lesson from it

Today genting make the top volume again.nice up move when the market start and then when it break it support for the day it goes down and down...
Lesson learn from it, never chase a stock.I miss genting last fri.The Gap up and the nice move up which close the high of the day is fantastic. But once you miss it dont chase.Congrate to investor that buy before last Friday. You really catch a nice up move.
Yesterday it gap up again and move higher, (i dint chase the stock) some people went in yesterday. It is already very risky as you are chasing and the stock went up. Some people that second think the market dint went in yesterday, they thought that the up move on last friday is enough so they observe the market to see if there is another up move on Monday. Indeed it happen. So they went in today, hoping it will move much higher.Well it did move higher on the 1st 35 min of the opening, hit 1.68 for awhile and there it goes. 1.68 is history.

1.63 - 1.64 is the support of today...once it break it goes down n down.The immediate support which is also a very weak support now is at 1.5.
The W% is going down and is below -25. However the price pattern have not break 1.5 yet.Perhaps tomorrow it may gap down and move up and then down again.

Lesson learn is not to chase a stock.If it move up and you miss it so be it. The market is always there.There are plenty of opportunity if you have the cash.Dont because your neighbour, friends, relative or whoever earn money from this stock and you are greedy and went to chase the stock.It will hurt you.

Monday, August 16, 2010

Inverted Head and Shoulder in Mar 2009

S&P 500 again...Inverted head and shoulder.Inverted H&S mean it has bottom, H&S mean it has topped

Head and shoulder formation let look at the histoy

This the the S&P500 in 2007. The topping pattern has form with head and shoulder. You can also see many big and small head and shoulder formed.

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Let look at the king of the market

LEt take a look at the King of the market. Dow Jones Transport
Over here i am going to introduce bull flag and bear flag. See in the chart how it work:



As you can see now we are in the bear flag.So a drop has happened

Friday, August 13, 2010

Hit and Misses with star of today

Genting is a high flyer today....woow..nice gap up and move to the high of the day.Those who hold the stocks congrate!!!!

Shorted Emini S&P500 1116.25 9 Aug
exited Emini S&P500 1087.75 13 Aug

Stock that i have missed
Cosco long 1.59 on 12 Aug
Yangzijiang long 1.46 on 12 Aug

Upcoming
NOL long 2
Noble long 1.66
Midas long 0.94
Ezra long 1.91
CSE global long 0.95
Rotary long 0.96
Kepcorp long 9.02
Capland long 4.04

Stock entry today
Straitasia long 2.05
yanlord long 1.8
indoargi long 2.43
ezion long 0.66

Seems like the drop has been cushion.There are signal that is moving the other way now.But is still early to tell if it will last for long.Right now the US indices are in the Green except NASDAQ.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Mkt drop

As spoken yesterday, flat top of the market produce drop. The US indices are down currently and in asia japan is down 2.7%,. HSI is down 0.83% and STI is down 1.17%.
The trading method of mine also tell me that a drop is coming.that why i have no holding as of now except shorting of emini S&P 500 @ 1116.25.

Those who have shorted on SG stock earlier congrate too. i miss this boat cos i am too busy with my work.
is ok...never chase the market.if you miss it, is ok. the next wave will come again. if u chase the market and u lose $$$ then that it, you may not be able to come back to the market again.

FED meeting, 2.15am release of policy statment

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Flat top on indices mean gng down

Hi
Let me share on alittle observation on the indices...

look at dow jones, S&p500, Nasdaq they all have a similar pattern where they will move up and hit certain resistance. This will prevent the price from moving higher and form a flat top. This flat top will produce mkt drop. Let take a look at S&p500



From here u see, flat top will make mkt drop...so this time round there is a flat top, which may produce a mkt drop.
As i am talking here, the dow is down 82, Nasdaq down 31, S&P500 down 11

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Profit sold

Emini
Sept 2010 Emini S&P500 long @ 1095.00 6 aug sold 1112

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Rich get richer and poor get poorer

I am pondering about the objection my client gave me on insurance and thinking about them.
The fact is in this world the richer get richer and the poorer get poorer. I found out some reasons why.

1)Strangly, the people that needed insurance the most are the people that are not that rich. Cos u transfer the risk to insurer, and something happen to u and u dont hav to pay the full amount. This will somehow retain the financial status of these people. But most of them dont think it is important. U might argue, cos they no money, have things to commit in and not enough cash.My question is you told me you wanna be rich or live better, this is your priority but you are not acting towards it. people tend to look at the immediate stuff and those distracting and far away they chuck it aside.
Next they tell me that they need to retire with X amount of money each month when they reach certain age. But when doing the retirement planning, they start to discount themselves.Shortchanging themselves. pretty sad. Yes investment is non gurantee for retirment planning, but if it is gurantee do u think i will still be working and do u think u still need to work. If you never start this number for retirment planning is just a dream, and is this the way you wanna led ur life. playing with hopes and luck.

2) The rich know that it is important and they really transfer the risk to insurer. They want to make sure they need not pay for things when soemthing happen to them and they can start off from where they left off.So they get richer after tt.They think long term and want to live better than now in the long run.

I will always thank my client for the business they gave me and also a hand shake with client when they buy something. But this is not to thank them, but congrate them that they made a move that will benefit themselves.It is not the plan they are buying, it is the life they are choosing. Product are just commodities, can be replace anytime, but the advise from the advisor is the key thing. Bcos life changes from time to time. It is not a fact like science, it is an assumption and will change constantly. So an advisor is key. It is not what you have that matter, it is what u do to what u have that matter.

Genting

hi
As in the earlier post in jul, i was saying that genting will hit abt 1.3. that the ressitance for that.it hit and fell today.
I heard alot of people buying genting today @ 1.25 and 1.26. Well not splashing cold water, but prepare to cut lost.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Profit and losses

Emini
Sept 2010 Emini S&P500 long @ 1095.00 23 jul currently price 1121

Stock
CSE global long @ 0.88 5 jul current price 0.99
indoagri long @ 2.11 5 jul sold 2.34 3 aug (profit)
Cosco long @ 1.52 19 jul, Sold 1.64 3 aug(profit)

STI

STI weekly



STI weekly have shown a clear uptrend. but notice that the rate of change is getting smaller as it move up. it had hit the previous high in april and today the mkt slide alitte.

STI daily

Today STI is down abt 20 point from the opening, it have hit the previous high resistance in april and move down.It may stay up for the next few days
DOW JONES IND weekly chart


DOw is well supported as u can see in the chart there. and the weekly chart shows that it wanna break away upward. The W% have stay up.A new uptrend might be in the picture overcoming the previous high set in 30th april 2010.
However, if it cant move up higher then it will stay side ways for sometime.

Dow Jone IND daily


A slanted upward W is form here. The up day of yesterday is rather convincing. I expect today to be a inside bar day.

Trading your way

Hey folk

very interesting market movement thru last week till today...i will elaborate more on the nxt post...
i came across a fb posting by steve job on 2005 Standford uni commencement adrress...very inspirational very interesting here the link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

i met a person a few days back talking about trading. he is a beinger and wish to do trading. He went to courses and learn something and wish to do trading.
i told him very briefly there is no magic formula for trading and investment. Hardwork pay off. u put in 10 min a day u get tt result u put in ur life time u get a life time result. I dont think he got it.Anyway, i used to beleived in putting 10 min of ur time and u can make passive income...but tt is totally not true...until u skill of trading have reach the person whom u pay to teach u in course, u cant use 10 min everyday to make substantial money.u still need hard work.

Some of the things i do:
1)i went for courses, learn there methods, but u sure know somethg the trainer say...they say u hav to find a method tt suit u.this method suit me, i share with u people with a fee.but it may not suit u.
is like if brad pitt wore a coat and he look damn nice, u wear the same coat n u look oversize or somethg.So after learning keep exploring and find a method tt suit u, and constantly improve the method to suit with the situation.PLS PUT IN EFFORT, there is no such thing as easy cash in the market

2) i really went into detail of the technical indicators, The maths, the physical meaning behind them and interact with people tt use all this indicator. For eg MACD, some people use the crossover to buy and sell, some use the histogram, some use both. An indicator have different interpretation.each interpretation get u different result. Learn them, internalize them before really using it.

3)Technical indicator tell u the technical point of view, to be more precise u need to know the psychological side where the price action comes in. The price action is infact the most important thg. learn them thoroughly, do deep into it.

With the technical and psychological aspect, my method currently can get an accuracy rate of 65% to 90%. Some stocks response to my method is 100%( i m surprise too).

Remember there is no easy way out in investing or trading.i took 3 years, to learn all this and i still learning. i spend on average 20 to 30 hr a week to look into these. ( i m not a very clever person, maybe u r and u might tk lesser time)