Mkt update

Hey folk

Looking at the chart of asia market. We are awaiting some news or what to drive the market either up or down.

Probably for Singapore, we are waiting for the election result or what not.

Do not be emotion when come to trading.Some people are telling me, if the opposition win, i am going to buy in the market. It do not make any sense out of that because these is purely emotional and your opinion.

On the other side, as i said the hot money have flow back to the west, especially USA. The stock market over there are more rosy.

S&P500 forecast

Alright

Forecast of S&P500 and Emini S&P500 futures end of the year => 1630s to 40s
Currently trading about 1350s. Will hit 1380s soon.

Mkt update

Hey folk

So my forecast of the stocks till year end are going higher for the US indices. The commodities will also move higher. US dollar however, would move lower. That is a natural reaction when the Dollar is lower commodities move higher. Bonds price will continue to move lower too.

Hot money are moving back to the US. So i expect Asia to be a lagger or follower. And the rising price of crude, have lead to businesses feeling the heat in emerging economy in Asia.

Economy recovery are not all rosy. The US govt is using certain tools to move up the stock market some one have to pay the price. The US dollar are paying the price. This will sure lead to higher commodities price which lead to high inflation. At some point when the whole situation turn right, US govt will raise interest rate. US dollar will move higher. The commodities will put in their top, the situation will be back to normal again.

However the situation is. However you dislike it. Please do not let your emotion take control of that. Trade as what technical analysis tell you to.

S&P500

Hey folk

The S&P 500 is on route to hit the level of 1630s to 40s by end of the year.
The next target for S&p500 is 1380s level.

GE and QE

Hey folk

The FED is holding the interest rate steady and the bond buying activities will end on schedule as of June 30th. More update of the 2011 and 2012 forecast coming up.

General election, We are all going to vote this time except for Tanjong Pagar GRC. I am under Marine Parade GRC. Fantastic!!

I shall not say which party i favour more, but a GRC is a team, why compare individual like the 2 young ladies. They are both capable to serve the people. But the group that can serve us better is the best choice. To be honest, I dont see any opposition can take on the role as a government. They can be a second voice for us in the parliament, but to run a country i really doubt so.

Regarding previous post

Hey folk

My apology to the previous post...i mean the US mkt is set to look good and not the Asia mkt. sorry for the confusion.However let wait for what the FED is going to say later before entry

Mkt update

Hey folk

I been waiting for the market to show me the direction. Finally i think the direction is set, the market may go up as the inverse H&S is formed. Today is an historic event, it is a FED policy interest rate decision meeting today ending unusually early at 12:30 pm OST.

Additionally, we are to witness the first ever regularly scheduled FED Chairman press conference. The markets will literally hang on every word Mr Bernanke utters.

I dont think that Ben Bernanke will move the interest rate higher today. If he does, we are in a great reversal.

S&P500 hav hit my target for this month of 1340s yeah yeah...Moving all the way to 1630s - 40s at the end of the year.

Mkt update

Hey folk

US dollar



Look at the chart of the US dollar. Bearish flag all over. There are 2 bearish flag in the picture where it is a failure. There are bearish flags within a big bearish flag. The triangle in the picture is the pennant or triangle with the false break out happening usually in the 60 to 70% mark.

Hope it is useful. Bearish flag do produce market drop.

We are in a long holiday this week. The market have went up. Would it substain? My take is to see monday. Good Friday or Easter holiday is well respect and obey by many people world wide. Fund managers or traders would take their holiday and would not be in the market. So when monday is back, when traders are in, we may see the correct direction coming in.

Cheers

Movement that i encourage

Hey folk

In trading in the market, 1 buy = 1 sell.
If you were to sell, someone must buy from you, if not that sale is not possible.
If you were to buy, someone must sell to you, if not that buy is not possible.

Which meant to say that, though we do not know who we win the money from or who we buy the stocks from, but there is someone out there that buy from or sell to us.

So if you were to make money out of the market, somebody got to lost money. Maybe this bit of money that the person lost is so important to them, they may use to pay for their child education, for their spouses or parents medical fee or whatever reasons. I do hope and encourage people whom make money from the market to donate an amount that is comfortable to them to charity. Help to make the world a better place. To help the less fortunate, to help people whom do not have the financial education like you and I, or to help whoever.

What goes around comes around.

Also not forgetting, i am also encourage that we get speculators out of the crude oil market.

Cheers have a nice weekend.

Good friday

Hey good friday is coming
like my previous post. there might be a reversal. Hope you stay out till next week mon. Lots of funds manager are on holiday, traders are out, most people are enjoying. Dont be in a market that has thin volume and great volatilty.

Happy long weekend. Happy good friday

Mkt update

Hey folk

Like i said before in many postings before, get the speculators out of the crude oil market. Crude oil is essential to our livelihood. It would determine what the price are we going to pump our petrol, the gas we use to cook, the SBS bus fare, the electricity bills that we pay and any direct or indirect things that crude is needed.

Crude oil is so important that every country in the world needs it. Crude would not face a liquidity problem even the speculator are not in the market. The speculator are the one that can drive the cost of the crude sky rocket and greatly affect our economy.

I think we can start looking for stock to buy now. The S&P500 rating dont seem to affect the market. We are entering a long weekend. It is good friday. It is respected by many around the world. So i do expect a market reversal after that.

Dow Jones transport to go above 5280s, for new heights to set in.
Dow Jones Ind go above 122339s, for new heights to set in.
HSI and STI, we have to see their closing today. Too much gaps in the asia market.
EminiS&P futures to go above 1319s, for new heights. ( the forecast till end of the year is still unchanged: it is 1630-40s)

A word of cautious, there are divergence in the indicator with respect to the price. So trade with care.

Gold went higher and hit 1500 yesterday, it is the safe heaven for investor whenever things sound wrong.

Currency
USD will continue to go lower.
Euro on the flip side is going higher.
AUD is interesting, as you'll find a relationship with the Dow movement.

Mkt update

Hey folk

Right now, it is also a good time to spot where the mkt will drop until and also to react when the market move up again. So do your homework.

I will post some forecast by tmr.

Mkt update

Hey folk

Here we go. The market is down, worldwide. Gold as safe heaven is lifted. Standard & Poor’s also said that it revised its outlook on the long-term rating of the U.S. sovereign to negative from stable.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-sps-downgrade-of-us-ratings-outlook-2011-04-18

As i said in my many previous posting on the blog, a drop is coming. Here we are. Shorted?? good luck and congrate!!!

Mkt update

Hey folk

Alright, on thur we see the US indices to go up. It went up higher than the low on Wed. As this is a swing day ( for technical analysis) so you would expect on Fri the mkt to go higher.

However this do not tell you that the mkt would go higher for now, it mean momentary going higher. So let see how the US mkt is like on Monday then we can decide for the on going trend.

I do expect US mkt to move faster than Asia mkt.

Gold is the way up man.It should go up to about 1550s by the end of the year.

USD will continue to go weaker.

Mkt update (upmove today. Fantastic??)

Hey folk

We see a upmove today. Fantastic???

But if you are still long, i think you might have trouble soon.

Yesterday we see Dow going down by 117 , the Emini s&P500 down about 12 points. Today, alot of people will think that is a down day for Asia. So lots of people would want to cut lost or start to short the market.

Here the big boys come and play with us. They decide to lift the market up today, people whom want to cut lost may hold back, people whom wish to short or started shorting would also hold back or caught by surprise. And when retail investor caught by surprise they start to be confuse. That the big boys intention.

If retail start to sell, someone got to buy them. Nobody can continue shorting if everyone start to sell. I think this is a setup to trap retail investor. This is the psychology part of the market.

Technical indicator, volume also tell us that the drop is not over, so if you are still long, please get out.

Nth is 100%, i may be dead wrong.Having said that i am not staying out of the market.

Mkt update

hey folk

I think this selling is coming in abit heavy.Like i said yesterday, take profit...if not you might have trouble.

good luck

Mkt update

Hey folk

The drop is in i guess. take profit.

Mkt update

Hey folk

I do expect the market to have pull backs for the next few days, as said in the previous few postings. This pull back can range from 3 - 8% in different market.

I do not expect a crash but just a healthy pull back before the major rally come in again.

The major indices around the world , are going to formed a inverse H&S, which mean it would move up more.

On the weekly chart of the indices, they are all bulllish. Which support the idea of a stronger upmove in the near future.

Eur/USD is going to be stronger and stronger.Lots of bullish flag on the EUR while lots of bearish flag on the USD. The relationship still stay when the USD goes down the stock mkt goes up. There are people teling me that dont make sense..BUT No matter how good your fundamental you are, you are not the head of the FED, the fundamental always come out on the chart first, whatever they are doing now is good for the stock mkt.

I also do expect US mkt in the near future to perform better than the Asia mkt. Hot money is printed there, it came to Asia and left, now it is going back where the origin is...

Gold is going to hit new high again... i guess this precious metal is going above 1500 per ounce.

Mkt update

Hey Folk

Dow Jones Transportation



Dow jones Ind


Dow Ind also do have weakness in the price.

As i am typing Dow transportation is down 17 points.

Mkt update

Hey folk

The Dow jones Transport currently is on negative while the rest of the indices are in positive.
i will show you some charts shortly

Mkt update

Hey folk

Commodities are off their highs, which mean to say probably economic activities are not enough to drive up the prices. When this happen it mean that the stock mkt should be going down too.

STI went up as high as 3160s and close 3147, these show weakness. HSI PUT warrant also have lots of volume, if you look at the market.

Crude oil may also have a drop as the COT is still showing net short. And crude oil up the market goes up. Crude oil down the market goes down.

SGX is a short. They have problem taking over ASX.

Europe region: Moody have downgrade Portugal govt bonds

Currently as i am typing europe region is down, US indices are in red too.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-downgrades-portugal-to-baa1-2011-04-05

Getting long term financial plan right first 2

I wish to emphasis on getting your long term financial plan right first and the short and medium would be right.

As the word long term, mean long term, which really mean you need some long years eg 20 to 40 years. On the long term basis, stock market always move up. See the historical chart of Dow, STI etc, it move higher n higher. In other words to say, if you start you long term financial plan early ( mean you have many years to play with) your return will be higher even if you manage it passively. It is a little effort with good long term result benefit.

Assuming the market condition goes through the same cycle in the next 40 years, I do a long term financial plan earlier than person A. Assuming we have equal money and equal capability, I invested lesser and get more. Person A would need to invest much more to get what i got. This is the power of compounding.

Many rich have seen that, they have started this for their children and for themselves since young.

Most people want to retire early and live a good life after that. They want to have options and the choice to work or not. The only way to that is to have no worry for their finances. So by getting you long term financial plan right first, help you to eliminate these worry and whatever short of medium plan you do, will help you achieve all these faster with confident.

Mkt update

Hey Folk

The indices in asia put in a very nice up move today.

But i want to cautious you guys on somethings:

1) light volume is seen
2) Blue chips are not setting new high like the index

So stay cautious. Do not buy in at this point of time. If you wish to buy, you should have done it quite some time ago.

NTH is 100%. I may be so wrong.

Mkt story

Hey Here some updates on the fundamental:

After the natural disaster that happened in Japan, their nuclear reactor are still causing problem. They are still unable to stabilize the reactor temperature which cause the stocks market to be very cautious. The market have recover fully since the tsunami hit Japan, but there are a few factors that are hindering the upmove now.

The few factors are:
1) Europe region are undergoing stress test on their government bonds on April. Countries like Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (basically the PIIGS). If they do not pass the test, we are going to experience another round of recession. However, my take is, they are too big to fail. The European Union will support them in anyway to let them pass these stress test.

2) Japan nuclear reactor still unstable, which alot of buyer of the market are staying at sideline. Japan being heavily dependent on nuclear power, now have to depend on crude oil to power their country. That cause the demand of crude oil to increase thus increase the price.

So overall, the market do not have any reasons to support the upmove as of now. So i expect the market to pull back alittle before another upmove will come. The upmove could happen on April after the Euro region have succeed in their stress test.

On the bright side:
1) US employment data have significantly improved, and they are on the route and on track to recover. The 'Hard Truth to keep Singapore going' book by MM Lee, have highlighted that US will sure recover, but just a matter of time.

2) China have problems with inflation, which actually is not something to worry about. China have the largest amount of reserve in the world. It is only whether the government want to 'flex their muscle' or not. They have the capability to control the economy of their country. She is also on route to be the number one country of the world in 20 - 30 years time.

3) Asia as a whole will have higher growth in term of GDP than the western countries. As the western side of the world economy recover, Asia would grow faster. Bcos we are the manufacturer and they are the user.

4) Commodities price will be higher as the demand for them is getting larger. As Asia grow more and more wealthy, the usage of commodities would increase. Thus commodities like crude oil, copper, titanium, grains, soft commodities etc will experience a increase in demand thus higher in price.

Mkt update

Hey folk

I been busy with many things that why dint update the blog.

I want to highlight a few things. My take is the market is going for a pull back. However, it dint, on friday, US market Dow Jones transportation break a new high since 2009. For Monday trading, Asia market may move higher or maybe it would start high and close low. Nth is 100%.

Dow Jones Transport


Dow transport have hit a resistance too and unable to close above it on fri.

Dow Jones Industries


Dow Ind have a very nice up move last week. However for Wed, Thur and Fri, the closing price could not go above 12393.

Emini S&P500 (Futures Jun contract)


Emini S&P500 Futures (Jun Contract) closes at 1327. The DH is 1333, but dint able to close above 1330.

Hang Seng Index


HSI have hit 23815. Whether it can close above this on Monday will be critical.

Strait Time Index


Yes STI have go against all odds, however we are follower. We have to see what the big brothers are doing before we can conclude. Stay tune.


Crude oil: From COT, the commercial are still net short on the crude but have some buying activities. So crude may move higher.