Hey Folk
I came across this very interesting video by CNBC. They
interviewed the former Fed chairman Bernanke. Please pay attention to what he
said for the whole length of video and particularly on 40 second to about 58
second.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000428960
40 to
58 second obviously tell us that these people, investment bankers,
government, sovereign wealth fund etc knew things that we common people do not
know. I wrote this before, saying that my personal experience with these people
is that they know things way ahead the news are release. So they will have
already be in the market. When the news released, common people will come in
and buy or sell a position that the smart money do not want. So in other words
we take the goods they do not want and give them the money. That is why again
in the COT, the small speculator or the others are always in the wrong
direction. Also news are extremely lagging.
Most of the time we try to second guess or think that the
policy maker or some bosses made a dumb ass choice or decision. But slowly I
realize that I think they know exactly what they are doing. The reason we do
not get it is that we do not know the real reason behind what they are doing.
Things always make sense once you know all the facts, even if is not to our
liking. But what I know is I do not know what the real reason is and I do know
that we do not know the truth.
China
In the video, Bernanke also said that the stock market in
China and the economy have no linked. I cannot remember where and when, I read
this from our local newspaper saying this as well. The economy in China is
doing a transformation, all transformation have certain shake up thus the stock
market had a dive. Having said all these are useless now as things already
happened. So for me, the COT, seasonal,
relations and trend are still my best tell signs of where the money is going.
Russia
Their economy are greatly hit since the Ukraine incident.
Now they are in the middle east. The shocking part is nobodies know how on
earth they transport fighter jets and tanks into there. They are so stealth. I
think the fact is I do not think they are there to fight the IS. They are there
to restore their economy.
By helping these countries except Saudi, they can come in
talk about the production of oil. If they can cut the supply of oil, they most
likely can let the price of oil increase. Which in a way will save the dying
economy of Russia.
What I
believe/ my opinion (may be dead wrong)
We are entering into a slow growth pace globally. Since
the Fed is not printing money and coming into the market, the market had lost
it artificial simulator. Thus the upward thrust movement of the market will not
be as spectacular as the previous years. We are still in a 0 inflation environment
which tell us very vividly that there are no spending activities. A lot of
money are lock up and kept in stash. I really hope that the US would not go
into a deflation like Japan. If so, the whole globe will most likely to suffer
a extreme slow growth, which surely impact all individual life. I also think because
of this the interest rate would not rise.
We are in a downtrend. But we have not break the low
created on Aug 2015 and most importantly Oct 2014 lows. I see very strong buys
in the COT, slight divergent of relationships between sectors. If you are
trading, I guess is best to stay sideline until the coast is clearer.
There
is still no need to change fund yet. We are still within a big range.
Untill next time….
