Hi folk
The forecast of 2012, are base on seasonal trend, cycles, and chart pattern. However, i would not show any chart here, just the explanation only.
USD would be the safe heaven currency as Europe economy are still very uncertain. Asia like India, china too
are having lesser export because of what happen in the West.
So investor would rather put their money in a place where chance of default is almost zero, which is the USD.
Equity wont be a good option as the economy is uncertain, Gold is a good bet but with USD going higher gold price will be hammered. Moreover, there wont be interest given even if you have gold.
Bonds is also a good bet but as US try to shake up the economy, coupon from bonds will remain low.
Dont have to consider bonds in Europe, they are at risk of default.
USD have been moving in inverse relation to the stock market.
So if USD get stronger the stock market get weaker.
Until a day when everything ia back to norm, is when you see USD move along with the equity market.
For the seasonal chart on Equity market, in detail we will see slow up move or even side way movement in beginning of 2012, then a top in Mar, then market falling till abt jun/jul, a rebound then fall again to oct forming a lower low. Then the election rally.
Note that there are too much govt intervention in the market these few years. They can defiant all odds.
But one day the market will be immune to these and would not react to any intervention.
Maybe the election rally will be started by QE3.
Let see where we end on 30 dec 2011. Most likely we will end the same at the end of 2012.
It is a waste that in Singapore market there are not or even no public available data that can be extracted to have these study.
So stocks in SG tend to be harder to forecast.
Gold in my opinion will mimic what happen in the 1970s-80s. A down move and then stagnant for years then pick up again. I can be totally
wrong about this.
Cheers. Have a good 2012 ahead. Wish all of you Good Wealth, Good Health, Good Romance. Happy trading and good luck.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Monday, November 7, 2011
Rally
Hey folk
I think we will be having a slight pull back. Then a rally again.
Stay tune.
We are right now in a situation where alot of asset classes are in sync. Currency, equity, Energy, metal. They are all in sync movement.
So if you short equity, you should also be shorting currency. But having said that you are also expose to more risk.
I think we will be having a slight pull back. Then a rally again.
Stay tune.
We are right now in a situation where alot of asset classes are in sync. Currency, equity, Energy, metal. They are all in sync movement.
So if you short equity, you should also be shorting currency. But having said that you are also expose to more risk.
Saturday, November 5, 2011
I am back!!
Hey folk
I am back. I was too busy trying to develop, back test and used some new technique for trading this few months. Well all said and i have done them.
My stand are still the same and clear. We are moving higher till about 1st Q of 2012. Then we may have a long term down trend.
Let us go through what has happen. EU wish to increase the funds of EFSF to 1 Trillion. They would need to look for countries to invest in their debt. They are looking at India, Brazil, Russia and China. The only country that have the financial power to get the debt is China. We are talking about 56Billion Euro. However, China have the experience of the US when they bought US debt. US started with the QE, which make the currency depreciate alot. So China may not help them at all.
Greece oh Greece. The whole meeting and aid are for Greece and some other countries that belong to the PIGS, but Greece said teh day before yesterday that they wanted a referendum to see if they want to be in the EU, then the next day the referendum is cancelled. This show there are split in political view within the govt of Greece and things may not be solved that easily.
These are all the blocks to prevent growth and stability of the world economy. They need to be solved, however i do not think that they can resolve them fast and easy.
I am back. I was too busy trying to develop, back test and used some new technique for trading this few months. Well all said and i have done them.
My stand are still the same and clear. We are moving higher till about 1st Q of 2012. Then we may have a long term down trend.
Let us go through what has happen. EU wish to increase the funds of EFSF to 1 Trillion. They would need to look for countries to invest in their debt. They are looking at India, Brazil, Russia and China. The only country that have the financial power to get the debt is China. We are talking about 56Billion Euro. However, China have the experience of the US when they bought US debt. US started with the QE, which make the currency depreciate alot. So China may not help them at all.
Greece oh Greece. The whole meeting and aid are for Greece and some other countries that belong to the PIGS, but Greece said teh day before yesterday that they wanted a referendum to see if they want to be in the EU, then the next day the referendum is cancelled. This show there are split in political view within the govt of Greece and things may not be solved that easily.
These are all the blocks to prevent growth and stability of the world economy. They need to be solved, however i do not think that they can resolve them fast and easy.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Events coming up
Hey folk
There are lots of events coming up this week as this week is the earning season. Moreover there are many other things as well.
Here are some of the important news as well as on the 13 Oct JP morgan are announcing result
There are lots of events coming up this week as this week is the earning season. Moreover there are many other things as well.
Here are some of the important news as well as on the 13 Oct JP morgan are announcing result
Sunday, October 2, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
Let me sum up what had happen in this month. We witness a history moment on the 20-21 Sep where FED decide to have operation twist. This have set the market falling as investors are fear of the weak market condition. To add matter worst, Greece and Euro region spark off fear of possible default.
Operation twist - is the selling of short term treasury and buy long term treasury so as to lower the yield of the treasury. So as to keep loans rate cheap. This effort would continue to try to simulate the economy by allow cheaper borrowing. USD which is the safe heaven currency of the world appreciate immediately against all the other currency. The equity and the commodities market at the same time fell due to fear of the still weak economy. However, with the strong USD and the low commodities price, it is a natural simulates package for the world economy as the cost of biz is lower.
Next week we will see a week full of important data and announcement. Monday is peaceful while Tuesday you see Trichet, Ben, Raskin giving speech, then the week to come are ISM data, non farm payroll etc. This will affect the currency market very much as well
Technical analysis point of view
I could see from the seasonal and the 5 week advance indicators are trending lower for this week. By mid or even end of Oct that the market will rally. Commitment of traders for most commodities have saw increase in long position by the commercial, however equity market have not show very significant increase in the commercial buying activities.
The USD and the equity market still is trying to form a relation now. In the past few years, USD up equity market down. By right in a normal economy is USD up equity market up. So I have notice that there are some struggle now between the USD and the equity market to establish the normal economy relationship.
Also we are still in a big bear flag for most equity indices. The triangle may not formed. So i do expect the equity market to be weak next week.
Let me sum up what had happen in this month. We witness a history moment on the 20-21 Sep where FED decide to have operation twist. This have set the market falling as investors are fear of the weak market condition. To add matter worst, Greece and Euro region spark off fear of possible default.
Operation twist - is the selling of short term treasury and buy long term treasury so as to lower the yield of the treasury. So as to keep loans rate cheap. This effort would continue to try to simulate the economy by allow cheaper borrowing. USD which is the safe heaven currency of the world appreciate immediately against all the other currency. The equity and the commodities market at the same time fell due to fear of the still weak economy. However, with the strong USD and the low commodities price, it is a natural simulates package for the world economy as the cost of biz is lower.
Next week we will see a week full of important data and announcement. Monday is peaceful while Tuesday you see Trichet, Ben, Raskin giving speech, then the week to come are ISM data, non farm payroll etc. This will affect the currency market very much as well
Technical analysis point of view
I could see from the seasonal and the 5 week advance indicators are trending lower for this week. By mid or even end of Oct that the market will rally. Commitment of traders for most commodities have saw increase in long position by the commercial, however equity market have not show very significant increase in the commercial buying activities.
The USD and the equity market still is trying to form a relation now. In the past few years, USD up equity market down. By right in a normal economy is USD up equity market up. So I have notice that there are some struggle now between the USD and the equity market to establish the normal economy relationship.
Also we are still in a big bear flag for most equity indices. The triangle may not formed. So i do expect the equity market to be weak next week.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
I was too busy to update the blog. I have been updating my client on email and busy with work and research on the market that i have really no time for this. But i am back.
Bear is in the market!!!
So let me start with Operation twist that happen in 1960 and you see a hugh sell off, then it rally and then a real major sell off. So this might happen to what we are experiencing now. See the DJI chart on yahoo,google or whatever.
My 5 week advance indicator say that we are at the peak and there will be sell off thru now till Oct.
Seasonal trend
You notice that the drop through out the last 25 years is usually in Sept, rebound and then drop into Oct before a rally.
10 year cycle
Usually is a down year for 2012 then the massive run up is the years ending with 5. So the next one will be 2015.
We are in down trend now. But I guess there will be a massive rally around the corner. After this massive rally please exist all your position on long and prepare for short. 2012 will not be a good one ( base on analysis). 2015 will be another rally like what we experience in 2005 thru 2007.
The other thing to look out for is that everything is flush down especially crude oil, this will make the cost of doing biz cheaper. With the strengthen of the USD and cheaper commodities, this is going to give the world a simulates package. However we are in a downtrend now and I still see a major rally to come in Oct. Any call to buy will be a short one. Of course higher risk.
I have call to buy today on FX, stocks and indices
Here is the SnP500. Perhaps a triangle is forming. That could be a false breakout to the downside. Usually this happen you will see rally.
STI have a bullish flag form.
Nothing is 100%
I was too busy to update the blog. I have been updating my client on email and busy with work and research on the market that i have really no time for this. But i am back.
Bear is in the market!!!
So let me start with Operation twist that happen in 1960 and you see a hugh sell off, then it rally and then a real major sell off. So this might happen to what we are experiencing now. See the DJI chart on yahoo,google or whatever.
My 5 week advance indicator say that we are at the peak and there will be sell off thru now till Oct.
Seasonal trend
You notice that the drop through out the last 25 years is usually in Sept, rebound and then drop into Oct before a rally.
10 year cycle
Usually is a down year for 2012 then the massive run up is the years ending with 5. So the next one will be 2015.
We are in down trend now. But I guess there will be a massive rally around the corner. After this massive rally please exist all your position on long and prepare for short. 2012 will not be a good one ( base on analysis). 2015 will be another rally like what we experience in 2005 thru 2007.
The other thing to look out for is that everything is flush down especially crude oil, this will make the cost of doing biz cheaper. With the strengthen of the USD and cheaper commodities, this is going to give the world a simulates package. However we are in a downtrend now and I still see a major rally to come in Oct. Any call to buy will be a short one. Of course higher risk.
I have call to buy today on FX, stocks and indices
Here is the SnP500. Perhaps a triangle is forming. That could be a false breakout to the downside. Usually this happen you will see rally.
STI have a bullish flag form.
Nothing is 100%
Monday, September 19, 2011
EU
Hey folk
Europe themselves are in a real bad shape. Would Greek default?? No idea. But we all know they are in real bad shape. My take is eventually they will unless some miracle happen. Greek credit default swap have raise drastically. The highest in history. Their bonds is at 57% yield.
EU is form in the first place not for economy progress but more of a political reason and stability. 17 countries using the same currency, but with different central banks, giving out different bonds may be a dangerous game to play.
ECB last week have pump dollar into their banking system, which is never their job to do such things. Italy have call China to buy their bonds. A key person in the ECB have resign. All these signs are not very promising.
Germany the highest GDP in EU have some growth problem. France the 2nd largest GDP in EU have their top banks rating cut by Moody.
EU A region with extreme rich in history and culture now suffer shock. I hope that EU do not break up, if they do the world will be in much unstable.
Europe themselves are in a real bad shape. Would Greek default?? No idea. But we all know they are in real bad shape. My take is eventually they will unless some miracle happen. Greek credit default swap have raise drastically. The highest in history. Their bonds is at 57% yield.
EU is form in the first place not for economy progress but more of a political reason and stability. 17 countries using the same currency, but with different central banks, giving out different bonds may be a dangerous game to play.
ECB last week have pump dollar into their banking system, which is never their job to do such things. Italy have call China to buy their bonds. A key person in the ECB have resign. All these signs are not very promising.
Germany the highest GDP in EU have some growth problem. France the 2nd largest GDP in EU have their top banks rating cut by Moody.
EU A region with extreme rich in history and culture now suffer shock. I hope that EU do not break up, if they do the world will be in much unstable.
QE 3???
Hey folk
on 20 -21 Sep, the FED is having a meeting. Would FED chairman come up with QE3???
My take is probably would, if not this month then next month.
US have got no other way out to simulate the economy. QE 1 1.7 Trillion money print and flood the market, QE2 600 Bil money printed and flood the market. Interest rate at real low value, but there is no way the economy is simulated at all. Cash printed are flowing into emerging economy, (where are those countries?? Asia Ex Jap). Obama have said that to keep interest rate at low level till 2013, which mean to say there will be lots of uncertainty till then.
In due of the president election next year, the democrat and the republican are still playing political game even their country are facing such a crisis.
USD is still the safe heaven currency only because they are still the world number one in term of most traded currency. You need to deal in USD for many things eg buy oil. Bonds market which has the highest liquidity in the world have almost half traded in USD.Which mean that in the world of uncertainty, USD is still the better currency.
If QE3 were to realize, it would have the same effect, they will buy long term bonds, they will flood the market and try to simulate the economy. The equity market will go up, but not the economy. USD will also be strong against other currency as in the uncertain situation, USD is still a safer currency. But it would not last long being strong. It will be weaken by excess supply and inflation take place.
The money printed will flow to emerging market. Then emerging market will get overheated and they will try every possibility to try to fight inflation. This cycle happen and happen again.
on 20 -21 Sep, the FED is having a meeting. Would FED chairman come up with QE3???
My take is probably would, if not this month then next month.
US have got no other way out to simulate the economy. QE 1 1.7 Trillion money print and flood the market, QE2 600 Bil money printed and flood the market. Interest rate at real low value, but there is no way the economy is simulated at all. Cash printed are flowing into emerging economy, (where are those countries?? Asia Ex Jap). Obama have said that to keep interest rate at low level till 2013, which mean to say there will be lots of uncertainty till then.
In due of the president election next year, the democrat and the republican are still playing political game even their country are facing such a crisis.
USD is still the safe heaven currency only because they are still the world number one in term of most traded currency. You need to deal in USD for many things eg buy oil. Bonds market which has the highest liquidity in the world have almost half traded in USD.Which mean that in the world of uncertainty, USD is still the better currency.
If QE3 were to realize, it would have the same effect, they will buy long term bonds, they will flood the market and try to simulate the economy. The equity market will go up, but not the economy. USD will also be strong against other currency as in the uncertain situation, USD is still a safer currency. But it would not last long being strong. It will be weaken by excess supply and inflation take place.
The money printed will flow to emerging market. Then emerging market will get overheated and they will try every possibility to try to fight inflation. This cycle happen and happen again.
Thursday, September 15, 2011
Friday, September 9, 2011
Winning trade for this few days
Hey folk
Client that are in my sms list receive the follow 2 stock trades. However we miss the Genting boat. But we catch the Noble boat.
Genting Chart
Noble Chart
This is my own personal S&P500 trade for the pass few days.
Cool movement from the market this few days. Congrat for those who follow the trades.
Client that are in my sms list receive the follow 2 stock trades. However we miss the Genting boat. But we catch the Noble boat.
Genting Chart
Noble Chart
This is my own personal S&P500 trade for the pass few days.
Cool movement from the market this few days. Congrat for those who follow the trades.
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Rally
Hey folk
Rally is coming. I have suggest some of my client to long.
Stock long candiate
Noble
Genting
I totally miss the currency trade when swiss national bank made the decision to hold it currency.
Futures long candidate
S&P
Nth is 100%. Keep your stop loss in place
Rally is coming. I have suggest some of my client to long.
Stock long candiate
Noble
Genting
I totally miss the currency trade when swiss national bank made the decision to hold it currency.
Futures long candidate
S&P
Nth is 100%. Keep your stop loss in place
Saturday, September 3, 2011
Where are we heading?
Hey folk Tomorrow i will participate in AHM. Army half marathorn. Woow. Last week i did king of the road 16.8km and this week here we go again.
Like the market, the week before we are doing good and on thur when we hit the highs and went down further because of the jobs data. This tell me that we are really entering into the ultra rally soon.
There are a few stocks that you can look at to long after the drop.
Genting
Ramba
Noble Grp
Cosco is a hot topic, but my take is it is still a short stock. it is really pretty weak. Stay tune next week as many more things are coming up. Obama is talking on the 7 Sep.
The commitment of trader report for this week on the indices have shown buying. But just a normal ones. The seasonal show we are heading higher very soon.However nothing is 100%
Like the market, the week before we are doing good and on thur when we hit the highs and went down further because of the jobs data. This tell me that we are really entering into the ultra rally soon.
There are a few stocks that you can look at to long after the drop.
Genting
Ramba
Noble Grp
Cosco is a hot topic, but my take is it is still a short stock. it is really pretty weak. Stay tune next week as many more things are coming up. Obama is talking on the 7 Sep.
The commitment of trader report for this week on the indices have shown buying. But just a normal ones. The seasonal show we are heading higher very soon.However nothing is 100%
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Commodities
Hey folk
For people that trade commodities, you can also try the yield between certain commodities and bonds. EG wheat vs bonds.
For people that trade commodities, you can also try the yield between certain commodities and bonds. EG wheat vs bonds.
Book Profit and forward indicator
Hey folk
Time to book profit for equity market.
I have existed my position in the market.
In the previous post, i do have a few forward indicators
1) Seasonal: it is a tabulation of years of data for the month of Jan, Feb, Mar and so on and measure the percentage return permonth. Then average them out. This will give you a graph that shows the movement since history, which month do better.
2) Bonds and stock yield relationship: Bonds yield play a vital role with the relationship of the stocks. Use stock yield per week minus the bonds yield per week. Taking a difference of them in terms of 5 weeks, you can roughly gauge the future movement. This is available on barrons website http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-weeklybondstats.html
3) Bonds price move first then stocks: Bonds will always move first then stocks. Is when investors exit their position in bonds where they will enter into stocks. Usually bonds price movement is 5 mth in advance.
4) The commitment of traders report publish by the CFTC weekly: This tell us the positions the big boys take per week. So an increase in position on the long side mean they are buying up. This is available on CFTC website http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
Note that these are not timing indicators. These are more to confirm the direction of a trend or filter false breakout. For entry technique, you still need to use the W%, price action etc. But these can help you reduce the loses and mistake.
Time to book profit for equity market.
I have existed my position in the market.
In the previous post, i do have a few forward indicators
1) Seasonal: it is a tabulation of years of data for the month of Jan, Feb, Mar and so on and measure the percentage return permonth. Then average them out. This will give you a graph that shows the movement since history, which month do better.
2) Bonds and stock yield relationship: Bonds yield play a vital role with the relationship of the stocks. Use stock yield per week minus the bonds yield per week. Taking a difference of them in terms of 5 weeks, you can roughly gauge the future movement. This is available on barrons website http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-weeklybondstats.html
3) Bonds price move first then stocks: Bonds will always move first then stocks. Is when investors exit their position in bonds where they will enter into stocks. Usually bonds price movement is 5 mth in advance.
4) The commitment of traders report publish by the CFTC weekly: This tell us the positions the big boys take per week. So an increase in position on the long side mean they are buying up. This is available on CFTC website http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm
Note that these are not timing indicators. These are more to confirm the direction of a trend or filter false breakout. For entry technique, you still need to use the W%, price action etc. But these can help you reduce the loses and mistake.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
Gold
Hey folk
Was too busy recently.
Short gold yesterday at 1855. right now 1765. I think this metal will extend loses.
We are in a rebound for now. If you wan to buy, buy little amount. I am staying at the side line for equity.
I will share with you guys the seasonal, and the likely movement till end of the year.
Was too busy recently.
Short gold yesterday at 1855. right now 1765. I think this metal will extend loses.
We are in a rebound for now. If you wan to buy, buy little amount. I am staying at the side line for equity.
I will share with you guys the seasonal, and the likely movement till end of the year.
Monday, August 15, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
Euro index still showing a big BULL flag
USD index is having a head and shoulder and is breaking down.
Equity indices is having some bottoming pattern, price are not so volatile or wild and with the 2 above currency behaving so, i think the index may move higher.
Gold may move lower.
Nth is 100%.
Euro index still showing a big BULL flag
USD index is having a head and shoulder and is breaking down.
Equity indices is having some bottoming pattern, price are not so volatile or wild and with the 2 above currency behaving so, i think the index may move higher.
Gold may move lower.
Nth is 100%.
COT
Hey folk
For commodities futures and indices futures, there are classification of 3 type of participant, the commercial, the large speculator and the small speculator.
The commercial are the ones that are usually right. There is the COT to measure the commercial activity.
Now I have something that is similar but i could track individual stocks and mutual funds as well. Stay tuned. Which mean to say, i can track where the big boys are putting the money into or out of that stocks.
For commodities futures and indices futures, there are classification of 3 type of participant, the commercial, the large speculator and the small speculator.
The commercial are the ones that are usually right. There is the COT to measure the commercial activity.
Now I have something that is similar but i could track individual stocks and mutual funds as well. Stay tuned. Which mean to say, i can track where the big boys are putting the money into or out of that stocks.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
Here some update
I do think that Gold will have a correction to about 1640s to 1650s soon and then rally back up to 1800s.
Equity market we have a smaller rate of change of drop for this week. This is the time when it may consolidate then move up or down after. Stay tune.
Nth is 100%
Here some update
I do think that Gold will have a correction to about 1640s to 1650s soon and then rally back up to 1800s.
Equity market we have a smaller rate of change of drop for this week. This is the time when it may consolidate then move up or down after. Stay tune.
Nth is 100%
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
Wild swing & what the difference between 2008 and now
Hey folk
The market is swinging very wildly today in the US indices futures.
Please trade with cautious.
The good thing about now than what happen in 2008 is that: Gold price is still moving up. That means to say, investor are finding a safe haven to place their money. Unlike in 2008, when the equity market sell down, Gold sell down too. In fact everything sell down.
Having said that, one of these days, I think is soon, gold will be so overvalue compare to equity market. Investor would channel their cash to equity market and sell gold.
Now we are facing a confidence problem unlike back then which is liquid issue. Unless there are further deteriorating of fundamental situation, we will see bottom around in Sep.
If you are holding stocks at high price, i am a person that never advise on average down or hold till end of the year. Cut lost!!!
Equity Index and mutual funds can recover if the rally comes in, but for individual stocks it would be more tricky.
The projection that i see now is that the equity market will generally head south thru 2012 into 2014 and then a massive rally again. That massive rally will sure bring all stocks up. If you wish to hold until that date, then hold on.
The market is swinging very wildly today in the US indices futures.
Please trade with cautious.
The good thing about now than what happen in 2008 is that: Gold price is still moving up. That means to say, investor are finding a safe haven to place their money. Unlike in 2008, when the equity market sell down, Gold sell down too. In fact everything sell down.
Having said that, one of these days, I think is soon, gold will be so overvalue compare to equity market. Investor would channel their cash to equity market and sell gold.
Now we are facing a confidence problem unlike back then which is liquid issue. Unless there are further deteriorating of fundamental situation, we will see bottom around in Sep.
If you are holding stocks at high price, i am a person that never advise on average down or hold till end of the year. Cut lost!!!
Equity Index and mutual funds can recover if the rally comes in, but for individual stocks it would be more tricky.
The projection that i see now is that the equity market will generally head south thru 2012 into 2014 and then a massive rally again. That massive rally will sure bring all stocks up. If you wish to hold until that date, then hold on.
Turning back to green today?
Hey folk
We might see a recovery to green today.
ASX is green. HSI n Nikkei have lessen loses
, US indices cash are reovering too.
We might see a recovery to green today.
ASX is green. HSI n Nikkei have lessen loses
, US indices cash are reovering too.
Rocky ride
Hey folk
Rocky ride in the market!!
S&P cut rating of US govt. What is the impact??
The impact is unpredictable. By right, for any country, the interest rate will hike in the country. Liquidity in the market will dry. Stock will drop and all the bad things will happen.
But is the US. US has almost zero chance of default. Because what they can always do is to print money to return to you.
On the market
Some pointers to share:
1) Bonds and stock move inversely; now bonds are hitting a resistance; A massive H&S and it is testing the head area. If it fail, stocks will move up.
2)USD index from technical analysis is moving down and USD index down stock market up for this few years. I have not change yet.
3) Eur index or Eur/USD from technical analysis show they have some upside.
4) Crude oil; not a good indication as it usually move with the stock market. But lower down the price of crude may mean either demand is low or it will be cheaper for companies to do business.
5) Traditionally, market is not doing well during May, June, July, August period.
So do be cautious.
Rocky ride in the market!!
S&P cut rating of US govt. What is the impact??
The impact is unpredictable. By right, for any country, the interest rate will hike in the country. Liquidity in the market will dry. Stock will drop and all the bad things will happen.
But is the US. US has almost zero chance of default. Because what they can always do is to print money to return to you.
On the market
Some pointers to share:
1) Bonds and stock move inversely; now bonds are hitting a resistance; A massive H&S and it is testing the head area. If it fail, stocks will move up.
2)USD index from technical analysis is moving down and USD index down stock market up for this few years. I have not change yet.
3) Eur index or Eur/USD from technical analysis show they have some upside.
4) Crude oil; not a good indication as it usually move with the stock market. But lower down the price of crude may mean either demand is low or it will be cheaper for companies to do business.
5) Traditionally, market is not doing well during May, June, July, August period.
So do be cautious.
Sunday, August 7, 2011
Debts issue will not disappear
Hey folk
Debts all over the developed countries in the West. Debts are still debts, till they are repay they are still underlying problem.
The way US and Europe are going thru are just pushing it back further. US have push their debt issue for about 60 years and they are still the world number 1. Europe on other hand do not enjoy the luxury of the US that they can borrow as they want.
So the underlying problem still exist and they are just pushing it further into future to solve or prolong the issue. One day, it will explode and cause lots and lots of trouble.
Well maybe we can live long enough to see how the situation unfold or maybe our sons or grandsons are the one that suffer from the so call man made ideal economy.
Debts all over the developed countries in the West. Debts are still debts, till they are repay they are still underlying problem.
The way US and Europe are going thru are just pushing it back further. US have push their debt issue for about 60 years and they are still the world number 1. Europe on other hand do not enjoy the luxury of the US that they can borrow as they want.
So the underlying problem still exist and they are just pushing it further into future to solve or prolong the issue. One day, it will explode and cause lots and lots of trouble.
Well maybe we can live long enough to see how the situation unfold or maybe our sons or grandsons are the one that suffer from the so call man made ideal economy.
Forecast for the rest of the year of 2011 and abit into 2012
Hey folk
My method have allow me to forecast with certain precision where the market is going. It is technical analysis,with cycles, with COT and with some calculation that allow me to see it. i do not pluck this number out from anywhere.
My stand for S&P500 is still the same.
Let me highlight to you where are we heading next.
S&P500 is still 1630s to 40s level; You will see a massive man made rally, none before in history. Probably in end of Sep to early Oct. However, i do see some clue telling me that market would go down during or alittle after the first quarter of 2012.
Gold is still at 1800s. There will be a pull back soon. Then a rally back up. This will last till end of this year or probably 1st Q of 2012
Silver will follow.
Currency
USD index will no longer be battled all the way down. It will want to be stronger.
Aussie dollar has already fall; i foresee it will fall further thru Sep before coming back up.
Euro is time to long; may see Euro rally to Oct.
One interesting thing you might know is stock yield usually lag bond yield by 24 mths. So we can see bonds yield high in Apr 2010, so this give us a indication that stock top will be Apr 2012.Then bond yield have bottom in Nov 2010, this tell us stock bottom at Nov 2012.
I may be totally wrong despite my previous forecast. But i do stick to them.
Nth is 100%
My method have allow me to forecast with certain precision where the market is going. It is technical analysis,with cycles, with COT and with some calculation that allow me to see it. i do not pluck this number out from anywhere.
My stand for S&P500 is still the same.
Let me highlight to you where are we heading next.
S&P500 is still 1630s to 40s level; You will see a massive man made rally, none before in history. Probably in end of Sep to early Oct. However, i do see some clue telling me that market would go down during or alittle after the first quarter of 2012.
Gold is still at 1800s. There will be a pull back soon. Then a rally back up. This will last till end of this year or probably 1st Q of 2012
Silver will follow.
Currency
USD index will no longer be battled all the way down. It will want to be stronger.
Aussie dollar has already fall; i foresee it will fall further thru Sep before coming back up.
Euro is time to long; may see Euro rally to Oct.
One interesting thing you might know is stock yield usually lag bond yield by 24 mths. So we can see bonds yield high in Apr 2010, so this give us a indication that stock top will be Apr 2012.Then bond yield have bottom in Nov 2010, this tell us stock bottom at Nov 2012.
I may be totally wrong despite my previous forecast. But i do stick to them.
Nth is 100%
Friday, August 5, 2011
Do not short
Hey folk
Do not short. If you want to short, is as of 27 jul.
Do not short already, look out to buy
Do not short. If you want to short, is as of 27 jul.
Do not short already, look out to buy
Psychology of a trader now as the market is falling
Hey folk
Alot of traders that bought stocks at a higher price in Asia market would panic when they see the down move in the US market right now. Probably most of them cant fall asleep. They are hoping that the market would recover as much as possible so that when Asia market open tomorrow, they hope again their holdings dont fall too much. If a run up occur like yesterday, they will be so excited and presume the market have will recover so that they can unload whatever they have.
These are emotions!!!
The killer of your cash or risk capital. The reason for killing you, and throw you out of the market in a short period of time.
Now as i am typing, DJI is down 346 points. A rare big down day.Worst of all, when Asia market gap down tomorrow morning. Traders that get emotions involve would hope again that the market would go up soon or overanalysis the situation to try to find a reason that maybe artificial to comfort themselves.
Or they might like to listen to some hopeful words of advise, like "is ok is going up soon". "The support is there...quite near the price now" or whatever reasons.
The market is always right. Dont 2nd guess it or try to find any other reason to comfort yourself to hold the position. Should have already cut lost. Dont hope!!!Because using hope or luck analysis will kill you outright.
Alot of traders that bought stocks at a higher price in Asia market would panic when they see the down move in the US market right now. Probably most of them cant fall asleep. They are hoping that the market would recover as much as possible so that when Asia market open tomorrow, they hope again their holdings dont fall too much. If a run up occur like yesterday, they will be so excited and presume the market have will recover so that they can unload whatever they have.
These are emotions!!!
The killer of your cash or risk capital. The reason for killing you, and throw you out of the market in a short period of time.
Now as i am typing, DJI is down 346 points. A rare big down day.Worst of all, when Asia market gap down tomorrow morning. Traders that get emotions involve would hope again that the market would go up soon or overanalysis the situation to try to find a reason that maybe artificial to comfort themselves.
Or they might like to listen to some hopeful words of advise, like "is ok is going up soon". "The support is there...quite near the price now" or whatever reasons.
The market is always right. Dont 2nd guess it or try to find any other reason to comfort yourself to hold the position. Should have already cut lost. Dont hope!!!Because using hope or luck analysis will kill you outright.
A very nice commercial and video
Hey folk
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwKYjZ_8EcE&hd=1
This is a very nice commercial about trader. Enjoy!!
Some videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORS64SkQHXk&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zxpCkuiL0Y&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwKYjZ_8EcE&hd=1
This is a very nice commercial about trader. Enjoy!!
Some videos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORS64SkQHXk&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zxpCkuiL0Y&feature=related
Bargain hunt! But dont buy now
Hey folk
Bargain hunt!!
The equity, Eur/USD, Aud/USD and crude slide further.
The swing day for equity indices dont work this time.
Pls do not buy now, Short list them and wait. Wait patiently.
Bargain hunt!!
The equity, Eur/USD, Aud/USD and crude slide further.
The swing day for equity indices dont work this time.
Pls do not buy now, Short list them and wait. Wait patiently.
Thursday, August 4, 2011
Gold
Hey Folk
Gold i do foresee Gold to hit 1800s at end of year.
For now, it will move up to about 1670s to 80s then a pull back.
Gold i do foresee Gold to hit 1800s at end of year.
For now, it will move up to about 1670s to 80s then a pull back.
DJI, Nasd, S&P500 Spot
Hey folk
There is a swing day in place for all these 3 equity indices spot market.
That mean to say a up move will come in, however
Nasdaq have to cross 2354
S&P500 to cross 1284
DJI to cross 12088
for more upside.
There is a swing day in place for all these 3 equity indices spot market.
That mean to say a up move will come in, however
Nasdaq have to cross 2354
S&P500 to cross 1284
DJI to cross 12088
for more upside.
Forecast accurate
Hey folk
This is my forecast on various dates and it really happen
http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/07/hey-folk-i-am-going-to-talk-about-us.html - 23Jul
http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/07/more-selling-to-come.html - 28 Jul
I have said that the US would not default on 23 Jul, i have said that the market will continue to weaken on 28 Jul and it all happen. These are no luck. This are all technical analysis with emotion out.
So what next???
I do not see a strong up run now. Rebound there maybe, but still weak.
Nth is 100%
This is my forecast on various dates and it really happen
http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/07/hey-folk-i-am-going-to-talk-about-us.html - 23Jul
http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/07/more-selling-to-come.html - 28 Jul
I have said that the US would not default on 23 Jul, i have said that the market will continue to weaken on 28 Jul and it all happen. These are no luck. This are all technical analysis with emotion out.
So what next???
I do not see a strong up run now. Rebound there maybe, but still weak.
Nth is 100%
Saturday, July 30, 2011
What happen in a default economy
Hey folk
What would happen in a default economy?
Interest rate will sky rocket. Why??
For example, you bought a car and you are a good debtor that service your loan timely. All of a sudden, you decide not to pay anymore. So in future(if you are able to loan again) creditor wouldn't trust you that much. They will demand high interest to be charged.
So if a country were to default, they have to service high interest for their bonds. To ensure that they have cash flow, they will charge high interest for people that take up loans eg mortgage, car loan, credit car etc. All interest rate will skyrocket. These will cost money drying up in the market.
On the other hand, the currency of that particular country will slide. Which allow export to be cheaper. These may eventually help out in the countries economy as export is cheaper.
What would happen in a default economy?
Interest rate will sky rocket. Why??
For example, you bought a car and you are a good debtor that service your loan timely. All of a sudden, you decide not to pay anymore. So in future(if you are able to loan again) creditor wouldn't trust you that much. They will demand high interest to be charged.
So if a country were to default, they have to service high interest for their bonds. To ensure that they have cash flow, they will charge high interest for people that take up loans eg mortgage, car loan, credit car etc. All interest rate will skyrocket. These will cost money drying up in the market.
On the other hand, the currency of that particular country will slide. Which allow export to be cheaper. These may eventually help out in the countries economy as export is cheaper.
Thursday, July 28, 2011
More selling to come
Hey folk
I think more selling will come in and then after these the massive up run of the market.
I think more selling will come in and then after these the massive up run of the market.
Monday, July 25, 2011
Saturday, July 23, 2011
US and Europe : what happen next??
Hey folk
I am going to talk about the US and the Europe.
The US is facing a dateline by 2nd Aug 2011 to raise the debt ceiling or face a possible default. The 2 party in the US govt have not seen eye to eye on many issue yet.
US govt is really too big to fail. If they fail, the whole will be hit by a massive shock wave, worst then the previous one we had.
China one of the largest lender, will have problem. Singapore too hold many US treasuries. Things will turn ugly. The world will turn ugly.
My take is they will sure come into a consensus. Sure they will!
But it is before or after 2nd Aug??
If is before 2nd Aug, I think the equity market will either fly thru the roof or have a correction before doing so.
If after, then i think we might see the market drop drastically and then rebound and give it a massive bull run.
Europe is never a region i like to invest in. One of the reason is i think they are too welfare. Workers can go on strike for whatever reasons. Too much union protection for the workers, do not do a favour to the economy.
Germany and France are the only major 2 countries that support the EU together with Scandinavian countries like Norway etc. However, Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal have big problems. Greece is facing default. Now what the EU are doing is to prevent the default to happen now. Push it further down the route. Push it to perhaps 2 to 3 years later. It is inevitable that the situation can never be solved, unless these countries suddenly have super good growth for a long term.
Europe countries unlike Asia when in 1997 financial crisis, we could devalue our currency to make our export cheaper and in turn drive our economy. But EU use a unify Euro. They can do that.
My take is the problem is not solved, it just push further to future.
My forecast for S&P500 since the beginning of the year till now have not changed. I still am bullish about the market.
S&P500 to end at 1630s to 1650s
Gold to about 1800
I am going to talk about the US and the Europe.
The US is facing a dateline by 2nd Aug 2011 to raise the debt ceiling or face a possible default. The 2 party in the US govt have not seen eye to eye on many issue yet.
US govt is really too big to fail. If they fail, the whole will be hit by a massive shock wave, worst then the previous one we had.
China one of the largest lender, will have problem. Singapore too hold many US treasuries. Things will turn ugly. The world will turn ugly.
My take is they will sure come into a consensus. Sure they will!
But it is before or after 2nd Aug??
If is before 2nd Aug, I think the equity market will either fly thru the roof or have a correction before doing so.
If after, then i think we might see the market drop drastically and then rebound and give it a massive bull run.
Europe is never a region i like to invest in. One of the reason is i think they are too welfare. Workers can go on strike for whatever reasons. Too much union protection for the workers, do not do a favour to the economy.
Germany and France are the only major 2 countries that support the EU together with Scandinavian countries like Norway etc. However, Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal have big problems. Greece is facing default. Now what the EU are doing is to prevent the default to happen now. Push it further down the route. Push it to perhaps 2 to 3 years later. It is inevitable that the situation can never be solved, unless these countries suddenly have super good growth for a long term.
Europe countries unlike Asia when in 1997 financial crisis, we could devalue our currency to make our export cheaper and in turn drive our economy. But EU use a unify Euro. They can do that.
My take is the problem is not solved, it just push further to future.
My forecast for S&P500 since the beginning of the year till now have not changed. I still am bullish about the market.
S&P500 to end at 1630s to 1650s
Gold to about 1800
Wednesday, July 20, 2011
Market rally??
Hey Folk
Market rally??
Seems like most market is staging higher. But i prefer to stay out for now, I have stay out of gold, FX and equity.
Lets wait for things to clear up for entry. Like i believed
1) Never trade without stops
2) Never trade with emotion
3) Never trade without a plan
4) Never trade without the intention of following a plan
5) Never trade without any analysis
6) Never trade with irresponsibly with your guts feel, news, rumours
7) Never disobey rule number 1
Never trade without analysis and never trade with a plan..if you miss the wave do not chase. Let the market come to you.
Never trade with emotion...trading is hard, trade with emotion is even harder. So get your emotion out, cutting lost is painful, but not cutting lost is even worst, it might kill your capital to rebound in future.
Market rally??
Seems like most market is staging higher. But i prefer to stay out for now, I have stay out of gold, FX and equity.
Lets wait for things to clear up for entry. Like i believed
1) Never trade without stops
2) Never trade with emotion
3) Never trade without a plan
4) Never trade without the intention of following a plan
5) Never trade without any analysis
6) Never trade with irresponsibly with your guts feel, news, rumours
7) Never disobey rule number 1
Never trade without analysis and never trade with a plan..if you miss the wave do not chase. Let the market come to you.
Never trade with emotion...trading is hard, trade with emotion is even harder. So get your emotion out, cutting lost is painful, but not cutting lost is even worst, it might kill your capital to rebound in future.
Saturday, July 16, 2011
high salt + low potassium = early death
hey folk
Something about health, high salt + low potassium = early death
premature death, stroke, heart diseases and blood clots
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/high-salt-low-potassium-early-death-u-study-212805304.html
Take care of your health. Nothing is more important than that.
Something about health, high salt + low potassium = early death
premature death, stroke, heart diseases and blood clots
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/high-salt-low-potassium-early-death-u-study-212805304.html
Take care of your health. Nothing is more important than that.
7 Never in trading
Hey folk
I have these 7 never of trading that to me is the most important
1) Never trade without stops
2) Never trade with emotion
3) Never trade without a plan
4) Never trade without the intention of following a plan
5) Never trade without any analysis
6) Never trade with irresponsibly with your guts feel, news, rumours
7) Never disobey rule number 1
I have these 7 never of trading that to me is the most important
1) Never trade without stops
2) Never trade with emotion
3) Never trade without a plan
4) Never trade without the intention of following a plan
5) Never trade without any analysis
6) Never trade with irresponsibly with your guts feel, news, rumours
7) Never disobey rule number 1
Gold entry technique
Hey folk
I also do trade gold Comex recently and this is how i trade it.
You can see that, a rally will come when the W% is coming out from the -75%.
Recently there is a triangle being formed. Remember it will breakout at about the 70% mark of the triangle, and a opposite direction rally will come.
My take is this precious metal will move so much higher by end of the year. About 300 dollar from now.
Always trade with stops. Never get emotional. Never make a trade base on your guts feel
Nth is ever 100%
I also do trade gold Comex recently and this is how i trade it.
You can see that, a rally will come when the W% is coming out from the -75%.
Recently there is a triangle being formed. Remember it will breakout at about the 70% mark of the triangle, and a opposite direction rally will come.
My take is this precious metal will move so much higher by end of the year. About 300 dollar from now.
Always trade with stops. Never get emotional. Never make a trade base on your guts feel
Nth is ever 100%
Forecast and entry technique for S&P500
Hey folk
I have also trade the S&P500 spot market. I let you see the overall trend and the forecast.
S&P500 Spot
From 2009, we rally and there is a sideway pattern (circled) then we rally again and now we are in the sideway pattern again.
Would we rally?
My take is not for now, but for sure we will. Let take a closer look.
S&P500 spot close up
The close up, we see a bull flag and then a rally. Now we are in a bull flag. Once we break out is a rally.
S&P500 is a very good sample of the world economy, as there are 500 companies in there. Like i say, fundamental always come out in the chart first. From technical analysis, you will know where things are heading next.
Always trade with stops. Never get emotional. Never make a trade base on your guts feel.
Next up analysis of GOLD
I have also trade the S&P500 spot market. I let you see the overall trend and the forecast.
S&P500 Spot
From 2009, we rally and there is a sideway pattern (circled) then we rally again and now we are in the sideway pattern again.
Would we rally?
My take is not for now, but for sure we will. Let take a closer look.
S&P500 spot close up
The close up, we see a bull flag and then a rally. Now we are in a bull flag. Once we break out is a rally.
S&P500 is a very good sample of the world economy, as there are 500 companies in there. Like i say, fundamental always come out in the chart first. From technical analysis, you will know where things are heading next.
Always trade with stops. Never get emotional. Never make a trade base on your guts feel.
Next up analysis of GOLD
Friday, July 15, 2011
Swing day effect
Hey folk
Folk you seen the swing day effect. it always create a opposite direction.
Talk about downgrade of US and whatever, you know what. I have not change my forecast for S&P500 and the rest of the indices since beginning of the year. It is still going up, technical analysis tell me this. How does it do that. Fundamental always come out in the chart first.
Yes i am mostly on short now. But this is just for now.
Folk you seen the swing day effect. it always create a opposite direction.
Talk about downgrade of US and whatever, you know what. I have not change my forecast for S&P500 and the rest of the indices since beginning of the year. It is still going up, technical analysis tell me this. How does it do that. Fundamental always come out in the chart first.
Yes i am mostly on short now. But this is just for now.
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
A swing day setup throughout all major indices...Which mean a turning point and it mean drop.
A swing day setup throughout all major indices...Which mean a turning point and it mean drop.
Friday, July 8, 2011
Market update
Hey folk
I am back. I have been using this week to get in sync with the market
I been in trade for Eur/usd,Aud/usd, S&P500 and Gold. I have profited for S&P500 and Eur/usd.
Paper profit for Aud/usd and gold.
Equity market: They are going higher but not now yet. I do expect a dip to come in before the massive super rally. Remember almost at the beginning of the year , my projection for S&P500 is 1630-40s level. This still hold. Dow Transport have hit a all new high. When the leader do so, the follower follow.
I am bullish on the equity market and i foresee our 4Q to be very good.
Currency: Eur/USD i think for the short term it would go higher. Though europe is in a mess, but i trade with the chart and fundamental always appear on the chart first.
Metal: Gold is going to rally further. This precious metal is going to go much higher than right now. 1800s by end of the year.
During the day when Greece is signing the austerity plan. Which is 30th Jun 2011. Through the chart, is telling me that everything is fine and we are going up. I remember talking to many people and they are concern and worry where the market go next. Fundamental always come out of the chart first. I saw the Dow transport heading much higher. The follower will follow. That why i am qutie certain that nothing bad is going to happen.
I am back. I have been using this week to get in sync with the market
I been in trade for Eur/usd,Aud/usd, S&P500 and Gold. I have profited for S&P500 and Eur/usd.
Paper profit for Aud/usd and gold.
Equity market: They are going higher but not now yet. I do expect a dip to come in before the massive super rally. Remember almost at the beginning of the year , my projection for S&P500 is 1630-40s level. This still hold. Dow Transport have hit a all new high. When the leader do so, the follower follow.
I am bullish on the equity market and i foresee our 4Q to be very good.
Currency: Eur/USD i think for the short term it would go higher. Though europe is in a mess, but i trade with the chart and fundamental always appear on the chart first.
Metal: Gold is going to rally further. This precious metal is going to go much higher than right now. 1800s by end of the year.
During the day when Greece is signing the austerity plan. Which is 30th Jun 2011. Through the chart, is telling me that everything is fine and we are going up. I remember talking to many people and they are concern and worry where the market go next. Fundamental always come out of the chart first. I saw the Dow transport heading much higher. The follower will follow. That why i am qutie certain that nothing bad is going to happen.
Sunday, June 26, 2011
Market emotion as it move.
I found a very interesting picture that really describe the investor emotions at every stages of the market.
When the market tank all the way to 2009 Mar, alot of people are in disbelief that the market would go up. They are afraid. So most of retail investor do not participate in the market.
When the market went up, hope set in. The investor have hope. However majority of the people would still not participate.
The market went up higher, They are optimistic. Retail investor start to come in. As the market goes higher, more and more have belief.
This belief would bring more and more investor where they will feel the thrill. And finally euphoria.
I love this stage as lots of people would buy at high price and wish to sell at higher price. This is euphoria. This automatically bring up the market for trader like me.
Then the mkt drop, investor are anxious and wish that the market would go higher. They also belief that is a long up run and a drop is normal.
Further drop will let them lose hope of the market. Which cause them to be denial.
Then fear set in. They are afraid that their investment would not promise any return.
Soon, Panic. There will be panic selling. They do not wish to hold anymore and seeing the big drop, they are panic and start to sell with anger that this investment is not for them. They will blame everyone in the world, except themselves.
Then capitulation set in, this is when investor give up on the market. They will sell at any given market price.
The cycle goes on.
When the market tank all the way to 2009 Mar, alot of people are in disbelief that the market would go up. They are afraid. So most of retail investor do not participate in the market.
When the market went up, hope set in. The investor have hope. However majority of the people would still not participate.
The market went up higher, They are optimistic. Retail investor start to come in. As the market goes higher, more and more have belief.
This belief would bring more and more investor where they will feel the thrill. And finally euphoria.
I love this stage as lots of people would buy at high price and wish to sell at higher price. This is euphoria. This automatically bring up the market for trader like me.
Then the mkt drop, investor are anxious and wish that the market would go higher. They also belief that is a long up run and a drop is normal.
Further drop will let them lose hope of the market. Which cause them to be denial.
Then fear set in. They are afraid that their investment would not promise any return.
Soon, Panic. There will be panic selling. They do not wish to hold anymore and seeing the big drop, they are panic and start to sell with anger that this investment is not for them. They will blame everyone in the world, except themselves.
Then capitulation set in, this is when investor give up on the market. They will sell at any given market price.
The cycle goes on.
Uncertain market
Hey folk
I am in UK for holiday and haven update my blog for sometime.
The USD is still the mover or shaker for the US indices. Whenever the USD went up, the mkt goes down and vice versa.
I have been on the side line for awhile. The market is really uncertain. However, my take for S&P 500 is still unchange. It is still going up. I have been stop out for a number of trades previously and i have reckon that the market is in a serious uncertain manner.
US indices have stay on the support of a trendline back from Mar 2009 very well.
STI are on the side ways consolidating.
My take is Wait for opportunities. Let the market come to you, be patience and do not jump into the market.
I am in UK for holiday and haven update my blog for sometime.
The USD is still the mover or shaker for the US indices. Whenever the USD went up, the mkt goes down and vice versa.
I have been on the side line for awhile. The market is really uncertain. However, my take for S&P 500 is still unchange. It is still going up. I have been stop out for a number of trades previously and i have reckon that the market is in a serious uncertain manner.
US indices have stay on the support of a trendline back from Mar 2009 very well.
STI are on the side ways consolidating.
My take is Wait for opportunities. Let the market come to you, be patience and do not jump into the market.
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
Looking at the chart, we are having a technical downward move.
Look at 2009,2010 May to Jul period, you will see that it is a downward move before a uptrend for most indices.
One very interesting thing to note, the USD index
and the Euro index
You see a head and shoulder forming in Euro, which mean there may be more downside.
For USD, there may be a up move in future. There are forming higher low.
These is inline with what i said on many posting before, the market is going back to normal. USD up, stock market up. This is the desire condition for a real growing economy.
Right now we are having a transition, and transition is never smooth sailing.
Looking at the chart, we are having a technical downward move.
Look at 2009,2010 May to Jul period, you will see that it is a downward move before a uptrend for most indices.
One very interesting thing to note, the USD index
and the Euro index
You see a head and shoulder forming in Euro, which mean there may be more downside.
For USD, there may be a up move in future. There are forming higher low.
These is inline with what i said on many posting before, the market is going back to normal. USD up, stock market up. This is the desire condition for a real growing economy.
Right now we are having a transition, and transition is never smooth sailing.
Friday, June 10, 2011
Property prices
Hey folk
I am not a Property guy. But property are related to economy and there are a few stocks that are closely related to.
Let me start by saying in the recent General Election, so many people are asking the govt to do something about the housing market. Too high in price, take life time to pay. Now the URA have increase the supply by quite abit. With increase in supply, price will be lower.
However, external situation, ( too bad we live in a country call Singapore that depend alot on external factors, maybe if we manage to find oil in pulau tekong then we are better off) do not look rosy. As in foreigner wish to buy and flip or rent out the property, but cooling measure comes in, so the demand would drop.
Next, interest rate would never never stay so low forever, when things pick up, interest rate increase, this discourage people to borrow, people whom have borrow may have problem paying which may cause default and if too many people default then another subprime will come. But we wont be in that condition i strongly assume.
So to me property prices are going to come down. this may lead to property share being slow moving.
I am not a Property guy. But property are related to economy and there are a few stocks that are closely related to.
Let me start by saying in the recent General Election, so many people are asking the govt to do something about the housing market. Too high in price, take life time to pay. Now the URA have increase the supply by quite abit. With increase in supply, price will be lower.
However, external situation, ( too bad we live in a country call Singapore that depend alot on external factors, maybe if we manage to find oil in pulau tekong then we are better off) do not look rosy. As in foreigner wish to buy and flip or rent out the property, but cooling measure comes in, so the demand would drop.
Next, interest rate would never never stay so low forever, when things pick up, interest rate increase, this discourage people to borrow, people whom have borrow may have problem paying which may cause default and if too many people default then another subprime will come. But we wont be in that condition i strongly assume.
So to me property prices are going to come down. this may lead to property share being slow moving.
Video interview with Jim Roger
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/rogers-only-a-crisis-can-fix-us-debt-problem-2011-06-08/7B14FAAB-F745-4ECA-ADB4-F8D5BD0A2C96?link=mw_home_kiosk#!7B14FAAB-F745-4ECA-ADB4-F8D5BD0A2C96
Who are usually the market big boys
Hey folk
Who are the market big boys?
Lets get the insider out, as in the company share buyback, the director or the CEO themselves.
The big boys are usually financial institutions. Which mean to say Banks, insurance company. Of course not forgetting some brokerage firm and prop trading firm. But the major ones are the Banks, insurance company.
Because of their size, they are like a big ship. Wherever they go, they leave a trace. It is hard for a big ship to make a turn which mean to say, when they start buying they cant do it at one go, when they sell they cant do it at one shot too. For small trader like us, we can maneuver, but we are at the mercy of these big players.
For futures trading, there is the commercial, people that use the good to make money. They are the biggest player in the market. And they usually know what is happening all the time.
Who are the market big boys?
Lets get the insider out, as in the company share buyback, the director or the CEO themselves.
The big boys are usually financial institutions. Which mean to say Banks, insurance company. Of course not forgetting some brokerage firm and prop trading firm. But the major ones are the Banks, insurance company.
Because of their size, they are like a big ship. Wherever they go, they leave a trace. It is hard for a big ship to make a turn which mean to say, when they start buying they cant do it at one go, when they sell they cant do it at one shot too. For small trader like us, we can maneuver, but we are at the mercy of these big players.
For futures trading, there is the commercial, people that use the good to make money. They are the biggest player in the market. And they usually know what is happening all the time.
UP
Hey folk
here you go...my calling for the up move is coming.is rather confirm in the US. Like i say before, no down where is the up. And if people are selling who are buying.
Also there are many things you can infer from the economic news.
From the posting http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/06/news.html
You see many fantastic things happening. Of course my trade is base on technical analysis. The news is just the sentimental. From that posting, you see the people in FED saying expect unexpected robust growth in 2nd half of the year. You see China slowing their money policy. You see QE2 is on schedule. Many many others things. If you look at Las vegas which is an indicator of US economy, it is crowded, fill with lots and lots of people. Not foreigner but local. These are tell sign that the economy is on track.
You cant expect a recovery to go straight up. There will always be slow down and then growth and then slow down and then growth again and again. The next thing I am looking for is the interest rate hike.That would be another major event.
That is also why the prediction i made for most market around the world is still the same. S&P500 to be about 1630s - 40s, STI to be about 3700s to even 3800s.People whom invested in Unit trust or some call mutual funds will ride the trend too.
here you go...my calling for the up move is coming.is rather confirm in the US. Like i say before, no down where is the up. And if people are selling who are buying.
Also there are many things you can infer from the economic news.
From the posting http://amatuertrade.blogspot.com/2011/06/news.html
You see many fantastic things happening. Of course my trade is base on technical analysis. The news is just the sentimental. From that posting, you see the people in FED saying expect unexpected robust growth in 2nd half of the year. You see China slowing their money policy. You see QE2 is on schedule. Many many others things. If you look at Las vegas which is an indicator of US economy, it is crowded, fill with lots and lots of people. Not foreigner but local. These are tell sign that the economy is on track.
You cant expect a recovery to go straight up. There will always be slow down and then growth and then slow down and then growth again and again. The next thing I am looking for is the interest rate hike.That would be another major event.
That is also why the prediction i made for most market around the world is still the same. S&P500 to be about 1630s - 40s, STI to be about 3700s to even 3800s.People whom invested in Unit trust or some call mutual funds will ride the trend too.
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
News
Hey folk
lets check out on some news
Here are some of the links that the FED said:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/06/07/feds-fisher-qe2-bond-buying-ends-in-june-as-planned/ - End of QE2
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110607/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_fisher - expect unexpectedly robust growth in 2nd half of the yr.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rebound-as-mergers-sweeten-sentiment-2011-06-07 - U.S. stocks pushed off perch by Bernanke
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-set-to-rise-as-tightening-ends-hsbc-2011-06-07?link=MW_latest_news - China stocks set to rise as tightening ends: HSBC
You can see the economic recovery is never a straight line. You can see things are slowing down but expect better progress in H2. You can see China policy tightening ends, which would take a few months to take effect.
However the news can speak, from technical analysis i believe that we do not fall in love with the downside. Fundamental always appear on the chart first. The drop now may mean bad news, but it also mean good bargain.
lets check out on some news
Here are some of the links that the FED said:
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/06/07/feds-fisher-qe2-bond-buying-ends-in-june-as-planned/ - End of QE2
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20110607/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_fisher - expect unexpectedly robust growth in 2nd half of the yr.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-rebound-as-mergers-sweeten-sentiment-2011-06-07 - U.S. stocks pushed off perch by Bernanke
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-set-to-rise-as-tightening-ends-hsbc-2011-06-07?link=MW_latest_news - China stocks set to rise as tightening ends: HSBC
You can see the economic recovery is never a straight line. You can see things are slowing down but expect better progress in H2. You can see China policy tightening ends, which would take a few months to take effect.
However the news can speak, from technical analysis i believe that we do not fall in love with the downside. Fundamental always appear on the chart first. The drop now may mean bad news, but it also mean good bargain.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Economic recovery dont just go in a straight line up.
hi folk
Almost nothing in the world goes in a straight line. Economy recovery do not move in a straight line too. It is bound to be bumpy. That why you see the market behaving in this manner now.
My take is do not fall in love with the downside for now.
Almost nothing in the world goes in a straight line. Economy recovery do not move in a straight line too. It is bound to be bumpy. That why you see the market behaving in this manner now.
My take is do not fall in love with the downside for now.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Another down day for today
Hey folk
We will see another down day for today. To me that is opportunity.
Do not fall in love with the downside
We will see another down day for today. To me that is opportunity.
Do not fall in love with the downside
Stop out and mkt update
Hey folk
I am stop out for a few positions. Nevermind this is trading, and you have to play with the rule and never be emotion about it. You won't be 100% right all the time, always keep your lost small and let the winner run. That is when you can have big profit.
Overall, the uptrend is still intact.Look at the weekly and monthly chart and you will see that it is still a uptrend. The drop on Wednesday simple do not have any reasons for that. Remember one buy = one sell, so if there are so much selling who is buying?
For those who have trading platform that can assesses to insider trade, you will notice some very interesting fact, the insider always buy at times when the public do not buy and they sell when the public are buying. Having said that, those who do not know how to read this data please do not try to buy when nobody is buying because it may mean the drop is not the end. So make sure you understand them before applying them.
Like i say before, trading is more about you understanding the game than the money. If you focus too much on the money, then your money will be channel to people that know how to play the game. IF you dont like the game, then invest in other things, like endowment plan, unit trust etc.
Genting to me is still a promising stock. strong support at 1.98, next level at 1.92 then 1.88.
I am stop out for a few positions. Nevermind this is trading, and you have to play with the rule and never be emotion about it. You won't be 100% right all the time, always keep your lost small and let the winner run. That is when you can have big profit.
Overall, the uptrend is still intact.Look at the weekly and monthly chart and you will see that it is still a uptrend. The drop on Wednesday simple do not have any reasons for that. Remember one buy = one sell, so if there are so much selling who is buying?
For those who have trading platform that can assesses to insider trade, you will notice some very interesting fact, the insider always buy at times when the public do not buy and they sell when the public are buying. Having said that, those who do not know how to read this data please do not try to buy when nobody is buying because it may mean the drop is not the end. So make sure you understand them before applying them.
Like i say before, trading is more about you understanding the game than the money. If you focus too much on the money, then your money will be channel to people that know how to play the game. IF you dont like the game, then invest in other things, like endowment plan, unit trust etc.
Genting to me is still a promising stock. strong support at 1.98, next level at 1.92 then 1.88.
Tuesday, May 31, 2011
My take
My take for this time:
Genting, Noble and Ezra
Emini Snp500
Keep your emotion out, let the winner run and cut the loser.
Just sharing. Do not buy them now. The buying price are over.
Genting, Noble and Ezra
Emini Snp500
Keep your emotion out, let the winner run and cut the loser.
Just sharing. Do not buy them now. The buying price are over.
5 Weeks advance indicator
Hey folk
My 5 weeks advance indicator shows me that we are going up these few weeks.
Nth is 100%
My 5 weeks advance indicator shows me that we are going up these few weeks.
Nth is 100%
Quote by Jesse Livermore
Hey folk
In case you guys wonder who is Jesse Livermore, he is a legendary speculator and surely one of the most fascinating characters in all of financial-market history.
He started trading when he was 14, he is a grammar school drop out in the late 1800s and early 1900s.
I just share with you some of the quote of his.
"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."
This one below is more interesting
"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."
Like i said before, trading or investment or even financial planning is how you hold your emotions, how you recognise the failure in yourself and ponder on the failure to want to change it better.
In case you guys wonder who is Jesse Livermore, he is a legendary speculator and surely one of the most fascinating characters in all of financial-market history.
He started trading when he was 14, he is a grammar school drop out in the late 1800s and early 1900s.
I just share with you some of the quote of his.
"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight."
This one below is more interesting
"And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine - that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance."
Like i said before, trading or investment or even financial planning is how you hold your emotions, how you recognise the failure in yourself and ponder on the failure to want to change it better.
UP
Hey folk
There will most likely be a holiday reverse in the market. Which mean to say we are like doing not so good last week, so this week after the the Monday holiday in the US and the UK we are going higher.
STI and HSI both are moving higher and i expect more to come.
Like I said and i would like to say again, do not fall in love with downside.
I will not update my blog so frequently as i am studying some new technique to better trade the market. Hopefully i can discover the technique soon and i would like to share with you guys out there.
There will most likely be a holiday reverse in the market. Which mean to say we are like doing not so good last week, so this week after the the Monday holiday in the US and the UK we are going higher.
STI and HSI both are moving higher and i expect more to come.
Like I said and i would like to say again, do not fall in love with downside.
I will not update my blog so frequently as i am studying some new technique to better trade the market. Hopefully i can discover the technique soon and i would like to share with you guys out there.
Monday, May 30, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
I dint have time to update the blog last week.
Do not fall in love with the downside. Mkt for US and UK will be closed today.
I dint have time to update the blog last week.
Do not fall in love with the downside. Mkt for US and UK will be closed today.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Bearish??
Hey folk
we are not coming to the end of the world. No ! the market is not going to collapse!
Do not fall in love with the downside. A up move is after a down move and a down move is after a upmove. No up where is the down and no down where is the up.
Do your own homework. Select some good ones and we are entering a mega up move soon. How do I know? Technical analysis tell me so.
we are not coming to the end of the world. No ! the market is not going to collapse!
Do not fall in love with the downside. A up move is after a down move and a down move is after a upmove. No up where is the down and no down where is the up.
Do your own homework. Select some good ones and we are entering a mega up move soon. How do I know? Technical analysis tell me so.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
What is your analysis on the market?
Hey folk
What is your analysis?
US indices have all hit the long trend line and rebound.
HSI and STI too have similar reaction. So what do your think. are your thinking what i am thinking?
USD have almost hit a the top of the long trend line.
What is your analysis?
US indices have all hit the long trend line and rebound.
HSI and STI too have similar reaction. So what do your think. are your thinking what i am thinking?
USD have almost hit a the top of the long trend line.
Monday, May 23, 2011
Monday 23 May 2011
Hey folk
Look at the major sell down on marine and commodities sector. The financial is still doing right. Indoagri drop almost 10% in the opening.
Look at the major sell down on marine and commodities sector. The financial is still doing right. Indoagri drop almost 10% in the opening.
Blog update
Hey folk
Now you can email the posting to yourself or your friends or loved ones.
Also you can see the indices of the world market and also commodities prices.
Now you can email the posting to yourself or your friends or loved ones.
Also you can see the indices of the world market and also commodities prices.
Saturday, May 21, 2011
up or down?
Hey folk
The situation now is there are worries for debt repayment in the Euro region. Any country or major bank have problem repaying, another wave of recession will come in.
However, we will also witness a major upmove if the unemployment of US is getting better, and they raise interest rate. I think you will witness one of the most massive up move in history. There is no one time in history that the interest rate is so low, and the govt is printing so much money to flood the market.
On the flip side, we will be entering into an era that cash is trash. Cash you are holding would not be as valuable any more. The next crisis that would occur would be monetary related.
Nth is 100%
The situation now is there are worries for debt repayment in the Euro region. Any country or major bank have problem repaying, another wave of recession will come in.
However, we will also witness a major upmove if the unemployment of US is getting better, and they raise interest rate. I think you will witness one of the most massive up move in history. There is no one time in history that the interest rate is so low, and the govt is printing so much money to flood the market.
On the flip side, we will be entering into an era that cash is trash. Cash you are holding would not be as valuable any more. The next crisis that would occur would be monetary related.
Nth is 100%
10 Finanical Rules for life
1) Allocate your monthly salary
Are you serving money by managing it or by ignoring it?
If you are ignoring it, have no financial options, live hand to mouth, are buried in debt, then you are a slave to it.If you are the slave, then it is the master.
The earn and spend cycle is a vicious one. The duel income family for the most part is not born out of necessity but out of want. Yes everything cost more "these days" but our income has for the most part kept up with inflation.
We just simply spend more money on discretionary items than we did 50 years ago. This is call the live style inflation. You start to fancy starbuck more than kopitiam coffee.
Allocate them so that your money work for you to achieve you personal aims:
10- 20% of income for protection, 30-40% for saving and investment and 50% on expenses. You won’t go wrong if you follow these. Each allocation do have it purpose and can complement each other to gain in value.
Imagine you already have:
- $1 Million coverage for protection,
- Retirement income of about $2000 to 3000 /mth or more base on the value now that can last for 20 years.
Would your life be always good, you just want to make a good life to a greater life. You won’t be really worry about what going to happen to my kids, my parents, my wife, my whatever if something happen to you, you won’t be so worry about when you are old, do you still need to work to support yourself or working is an option.
2) Cut down on spending
How much money you earn has no relationship to your wealth, is how much money you spend that is closely related to your wealth. Just an example, If Mr A earn 10k per month and spend 9k and Mr B earn 2k and spend 500. Eventually Mr B will be richer.
This is the hardest concept for people to understand as we spend our adult lives trying to earn more money. While this is not necessarily a bad thing most people really don't have much control over how much money they make. So cut down on spending so that you have more saving and will lead to your ultimate wealth.
3) Good debt and bad debt
I quote “The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.” And the most wonderful things is if you reserve your debt for appreciating assets, your assets will always be larger than your debt.
There are only 2 assets that fall into the appreciating category, real estate and businesses. –
- Businesses include both private and public companies. This means there are a whole lot of "things" that should not be purchased with borrowed money.
From Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad, Poor Dad) has a great quote, "the rich only buy assets, the poor only buy liabilities, and the middle class buy liabilities they think are assets".
-
My definition of an asset is anything that appreciates in value over time, again only real estate and businesses qualify. Anything that depreciates over time is a liability. Using debt to purchase "liabilities" means you pay interest to own something that eventually becomes worthless.
These "liabilities" include cars, everything inside your house, and every toy in your home.
The key to increasing wealth is never borrow to purchase liabilities, and limit the purchase of all liabilities using cash.
-
4) Teach your children
School don’t teach financial education at all. I think is the duty of their parents to teach them from young on these. Introduce to them how money work for you, show them dividend, interest, rent, incoming producing vehicle, and the power of compounding.
Teach them to take note of their expenses and set a goal to save a certain amount to achieve, weekly, monthly goal.
I think that the best education your kids will get for their entire life.
5) Be discipline
Discipline is in yourself. No one can ask you or stop you for spending for what is outside the plan. With no discipline, you get to no where.
6) Donate
What goes around comes around. Help the less fortunate.
Especially those earning money from trading, investment, gamble. In the market, you earn money someone lose money. If you don’t donate some out, you will find that one fine day you will buy an investment without knowing why and that will be a failure investment. Don’t make sense right. But this happen.
Donate a comfortable amount to help the poor and less fortunate. What goes around comes around.
7) Receive money that is rightfully yours
The money that is yours is yours. Money that is not yours do not try to think about it. Take what is yours and do not fancy what is not.
8) Watch your money
Inflation is a silence killer. You think by not allocating your money properly and save a lot is fine? You are silently being murdered by inflation. Do investment in real estate and business. Things like predevelopment land, unit trust investment be it lump sum or regularly, insurance policy, stocks, bonds. ( Regular investment have a higher chance of profit for a long term.)
Start early, the power of compounding work magic. Starting early can let you alter plans in life and making sure things are still in place. And can Grow a passive income, so that you can retire much earlier.
9) Learn and be open
Always learn. Learn from your investment mistakes. Learn from others mistakes. Be open to accept information, new ideas and trends.
10) Share it with your close ones and friends
When sharing it with them, you learn more. Your friends too will share with you about his experience so it becomes an information exchange. These can bridge you and your loves ones and friend relationship as there are more things to talk about.
You don’t want a situation where you are so much richer than your friend, he is jealous of you and the friendship turn sour. This too will lead to if something happen to them; they will look for you to borrow money. If you don’t lend them, you feel bad and if you lend them the money, it may delay or cancel some of your plans in life.
Are you serving money by managing it or by ignoring it?
If you are ignoring it, have no financial options, live hand to mouth, are buried in debt, then you are a slave to it.If you are the slave, then it is the master.
The earn and spend cycle is a vicious one. The duel income family for the most part is not born out of necessity but out of want. Yes everything cost more "these days" but our income has for the most part kept up with inflation.
We just simply spend more money on discretionary items than we did 50 years ago. This is call the live style inflation. You start to fancy starbuck more than kopitiam coffee.
Allocate them so that your money work for you to achieve you personal aims:
10- 20% of income for protection, 30-40% for saving and investment and 50% on expenses. You won’t go wrong if you follow these. Each allocation do have it purpose and can complement each other to gain in value.
Imagine you already have:
- $1 Million coverage for protection,
- Retirement income of about $2000 to 3000 /mth or more base on the value now that can last for 20 years.
Would your life be always good, you just want to make a good life to a greater life. You won’t be really worry about what going to happen to my kids, my parents, my wife, my whatever if something happen to you, you won’t be so worry about when you are old, do you still need to work to support yourself or working is an option.
2) Cut down on spending
How much money you earn has no relationship to your wealth, is how much money you spend that is closely related to your wealth. Just an example, If Mr A earn 10k per month and spend 9k and Mr B earn 2k and spend 500. Eventually Mr B will be richer.
This is the hardest concept for people to understand as we spend our adult lives trying to earn more money. While this is not necessarily a bad thing most people really don't have much control over how much money they make. So cut down on spending so that you have more saving and will lead to your ultimate wealth.
3) Good debt and bad debt
I quote “The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.” And the most wonderful things is if you reserve your debt for appreciating assets, your assets will always be larger than your debt.
There are only 2 assets that fall into the appreciating category, real estate and businesses. –
- Businesses include both private and public companies. This means there are a whole lot of "things" that should not be purchased with borrowed money.
From Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad, Poor Dad) has a great quote, "the rich only buy assets, the poor only buy liabilities, and the middle class buy liabilities they think are assets".
-
My definition of an asset is anything that appreciates in value over time, again only real estate and businesses qualify. Anything that depreciates over time is a liability. Using debt to purchase "liabilities" means you pay interest to own something that eventually becomes worthless.
These "liabilities" include cars, everything inside your house, and every toy in your home.
The key to increasing wealth is never borrow to purchase liabilities, and limit the purchase of all liabilities using cash.
-
4) Teach your children
School don’t teach financial education at all. I think is the duty of their parents to teach them from young on these. Introduce to them how money work for you, show them dividend, interest, rent, incoming producing vehicle, and the power of compounding.
Teach them to take note of their expenses and set a goal to save a certain amount to achieve, weekly, monthly goal.
I think that the best education your kids will get for their entire life.
5) Be discipline
Discipline is in yourself. No one can ask you or stop you for spending for what is outside the plan. With no discipline, you get to no where.
6) Donate
What goes around comes around. Help the less fortunate.
Especially those earning money from trading, investment, gamble. In the market, you earn money someone lose money. If you don’t donate some out, you will find that one fine day you will buy an investment without knowing why and that will be a failure investment. Don’t make sense right. But this happen.
Donate a comfortable amount to help the poor and less fortunate. What goes around comes around.
7) Receive money that is rightfully yours
The money that is yours is yours. Money that is not yours do not try to think about it. Take what is yours and do not fancy what is not.
8) Watch your money
Inflation is a silence killer. You think by not allocating your money properly and save a lot is fine? You are silently being murdered by inflation. Do investment in real estate and business. Things like predevelopment land, unit trust investment be it lump sum or regularly, insurance policy, stocks, bonds. ( Regular investment have a higher chance of profit for a long term.)
Start early, the power of compounding work magic. Starting early can let you alter plans in life and making sure things are still in place. And can Grow a passive income, so that you can retire much earlier.
9) Learn and be open
Always learn. Learn from your investment mistakes. Learn from others mistakes. Be open to accept information, new ideas and trends.
10) Share it with your close ones and friends
When sharing it with them, you learn more. Your friends too will share with you about his experience so it becomes an information exchange. These can bridge you and your loves ones and friend relationship as there are more things to talk about.
You don’t want a situation where you are so much richer than your friend, he is jealous of you and the friendship turn sour. This too will lead to if something happen to them; they will look for you to borrow money. If you don’t lend them, you feel bad and if you lend them the money, it may delay or cancel some of your plans in life.
Friday, May 20, 2011
Potential stocks?
Hey folk
There are a few stocks in SG that seems pretty good. If the selling comes in and then the massive rally these stocks have the potential. I will send them out thru email to my clients.
There are a few stocks in SG that seems pretty good. If the selling comes in and then the massive rally these stocks have the potential. I will send them out thru email to my clients.
Genting
Hey folk
Haven been updating the blog so often as i am quite busy with my work and some stuff to further research on the market.
I would like to talk about Genting. From Technical point of view, the stock might have some weakness. There are divergence coming in.So do be careful of this.
Haven been updating the blog so often as i am quite busy with my work and some stuff to further research on the market.
I would like to talk about Genting. From Technical point of view, the stock might have some weakness. There are divergence coming in.So do be careful of this.
Thursday, May 19, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
The market is moving higher. Yes you can already buy some stocks. but i do expect another wave of selling then the real up move to come.
The market is moving higher. Yes you can already buy some stocks. but i do expect another wave of selling then the real up move to come.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Dont fall in love with the downside
Hey folk
The mkt have drop quite abit. My analysis shows there are still more downside. But do not fall in love with the down side. I think many should be excited that the price are lower
The mkt have drop quite abit. My analysis shows there are still more downside. But do not fall in love with the down side. I think many should be excited that the price are lower
Thursday, May 12, 2011
USD down and indices recover now
Look at these, USD down and the indices recover. That is the relations
Crude: on margin raising
Hey folk
Commodities price are also dealed in USD. So is natural that USD goes up the price of commodities would come down. The other things about crude oil is CME have raise 50% of the margin for trading. This cause many traders to meet the margin call thus cause selling. This is a good move to eliminate the speculators out of crude mkt.
Commodities price are also dealed in USD. So is natural that USD goes up the price of commodities would come down. The other things about crude oil is CME have raise 50% of the margin for trading. This cause many traders to meet the margin call thus cause selling. This is a good move to eliminate the speculators out of crude mkt.
Mkt update
Hey folk
For the situation since the crisis of 2007 -08, the USD goes down the stock market goes up. The recent drop is because the USD went higher. USD have formed a inverse H&S which signal a upmove, so i expect there are more upmove to come in USD. However this will let the stock market go lower.
These would not carry on for long as the US govt knows that they are not ready for a stronger USD yet. They still need foreign investors buying the stocks. In the event when the USD really goes up is when the US govt decide to raise interest rate. These show economy recovery and progressing.
Like I say,fundamental always come out on the chart first. The market place will leadthe economy by about 6 months. Which mean to say the USD is positioning itself for a rate hike in the near future. When these things happen, I expect the market to pull back first and then move very strongly upwards. Bcos investor would say oooh no stronger USD mean not a good exchange rate and they will think for awhile and say
rate hike = stronger USD = economy good.
Again i say for S&P 500 it will end 1630-40s end of the year
STI, is the hardest to analysis, but after a few days of serious charting, i get a rough number of 3800s to even 4000 by end of the year.
GOLD will move higher to 1820s
HSI to about 27000s to even 28000
So do not fall in love with the downside. I have not issue any call for buy anyway. I miss Genting buying price at 2.12 and i dint chase it.
Nth is 100%
For the situation since the crisis of 2007 -08, the USD goes down the stock market goes up. The recent drop is because the USD went higher. USD have formed a inverse H&S which signal a upmove, so i expect there are more upmove to come in USD. However this will let the stock market go lower.
These would not carry on for long as the US govt knows that they are not ready for a stronger USD yet. They still need foreign investors buying the stocks. In the event when the USD really goes up is when the US govt decide to raise interest rate. These show economy recovery and progressing.
Like I say,fundamental always come out on the chart first. The market place will leadthe economy by about 6 months. Which mean to say the USD is positioning itself for a rate hike in the near future. When these things happen, I expect the market to pull back first and then move very strongly upwards. Bcos investor would say oooh no stronger USD mean not a good exchange rate and they will think for awhile and say
rate hike = stronger USD = economy good.
Again i say for S&P 500 it will end 1630-40s end of the year
STI, is the hardest to analysis, but after a few days of serious charting, i get a rough number of 3800s to even 4000 by end of the year.
GOLD will move higher to 1820s
HSI to about 27000s to even 28000
So do not fall in love with the downside. I have not issue any call for buy anyway. I miss Genting buying price at 2.12 and i dint chase it.
Nth is 100%
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
President Obama would be having a presidential election next year. He would be elected base on his effort and success of the US economy. I believe that he would do whatever it can be done to make the economy work. Which is by printing money. So probably there would be another QE3 or even QE4. This will again cause inflation to rocket up high. Keep a close watch on that.
Mkt for monday: My take is there are still room for a drop, but be prepare for up move soon.
President Obama would be having a presidential election next year. He would be elected base on his effort and success of the US economy. I believe that he would do whatever it can be done to make the economy work. Which is by printing money. So probably there would be another QE3 or even QE4. This will again cause inflation to rocket up high. Keep a close watch on that.
Mkt for monday: My take is there are still room for a drop, but be prepare for up move soon.
Friday, May 6, 2011
Thursday, May 5, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
I foresee we are going down for another day tomorrow for all markets
I am already in short.
This is not a vote pulling or what. I am a trader and financial advisor, i speak with what i see in the chart. If the ruling party changed, i think i would go full on short on Spore stock market. People investing in unit trust should also change all their fund that associate with Spore out to other funds. Big local companies and foreign investor have dealed with the ruling party for so long and it have become more of a relationship, so changing one may affect the confident.
As a trader or investor, this is an opportunity, not a way to say you are taking advantage of your own country changing of govt. SGD may too be weaken which will cause inflation to be higher. These few days for SG there is really nothing to go on the long side.
Of course we do not wish these to happen. We need a voice, but we need track records and party that can produced results too. No one is perfect, (if you are please email to tell me the 4D for this sat :) )people make mistakes and that why we are human. Not everyone would benefit from any policies stated out and not all are popular. Eg eating vegetable is good for health but still people dont eat them, smoking is bad for health but still people smoke. I think for man kind, at the end of the day, having the ability to support your family is one of the most important things.
So stay tune. For my clients, i will send you an email on update.
I foresee we are going down for another day tomorrow for all markets
I am already in short.
This is not a vote pulling or what. I am a trader and financial advisor, i speak with what i see in the chart. If the ruling party changed, i think i would go full on short on Spore stock market. People investing in unit trust should also change all their fund that associate with Spore out to other funds. Big local companies and foreign investor have dealed with the ruling party for so long and it have become more of a relationship, so changing one may affect the confident.
As a trader or investor, this is an opportunity, not a way to say you are taking advantage of your own country changing of govt. SGD may too be weaken which will cause inflation to be higher. These few days for SG there is really nothing to go on the long side.
Of course we do not wish these to happen. We need a voice, but we need track records and party that can produced results too. No one is perfect, (if you are please email to tell me the 4D for this sat :) )people make mistakes and that why we are human. Not everyone would benefit from any policies stated out and not all are popular. Eg eating vegetable is good for health but still people dont eat them, smoking is bad for health but still people smoke. I think for man kind, at the end of the day, having the ability to support your family is one of the most important things.
So stay tune. For my clients, i will send you an email on update.
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
The US indices futures have develop a slight bearish formation. So do expect the market to head south.
Gold and AUD too would head south.
The US indices futures have develop a slight bearish formation. So do expect the market to head south.
Gold and AUD too would head south.
Mkt update
Hey folk
I have side step from Asia market for quite some time. Asia market are not doing very well as i said probably the hot monies have flow out of Asia.
In Singapore, market have been side ways. Probably we are waiting for the election results. My take is if the Govt is change or some major Ministers are not in the parliament, go short. Many MNC, banks and trade agreement are forge by the current govt and they build relationship with the counterpart. Also these have been true for very long. So the foreigner investor will be used to and trust the way the current govt do things.
I am a financial advisor and a trader, i do not trade on emotion. As a trader, no matter what the situation is we react and go with it.
So US indices have show weakness. trade with care. Long term projection still intact. AUD have also show some weakness
I have side step from Asia market for quite some time. Asia market are not doing very well as i said probably the hot monies have flow out of Asia.
In Singapore, market have been side ways. Probably we are waiting for the election results. My take is if the Govt is change or some major Ministers are not in the parliament, go short. Many MNC, banks and trade agreement are forge by the current govt and they build relationship with the counterpart. Also these have been true for very long. So the foreigner investor will be used to and trust the way the current govt do things.
I am a financial advisor and a trader, i do not trade on emotion. As a trader, no matter what the situation is we react and go with it.
So US indices have show weakness. trade with care. Long term projection still intact. AUD have also show some weakness
Monday, May 2, 2011
What i hope the new govt will do
In these election i want the new govt to be able to lead us into:
-Bring Singapore to a higher international stage
-Bring Singapore to be more vibrant city which is like olden days Venice or modern day London, New York where there will be foreigner and exchange of lots of ideas and culture sharing.
-Grow our economy further, GDP growth to be in the top 20.
-There should be more variety of jobs and higher pay.
-Develop the arts and culture.
-Lower the new flat price to really affordable but yet do not affect all existing market resale value and ensure that these new flats will have a steady long term growth in price. Hope that our future new flats wont be smaller n smaller due to land mass using up in our country.
-Ministers to lower their pay or we have to increase our pay to be comparable.
-Keep inflation low and stable.
-After NEWater, we should come out with more things on agriculture, energy solutions and recycle culture.
-A powerful and strong defense force.
-Integrate all new immigrant together with the citizen regardless of race, language or religion, to build a justice and equality society so as to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress for our nation.
I think that most of the wishes are achievable and are interlink. I believe nothing come without hardwork, to achieve all these everyman have to work very hard for these. But I agree myself that the statement on housing is abit ideal or even not feasible.Pls someone help to thk of a solution to our rising cost of housing issue.
-Bring Singapore to a higher international stage
-Bring Singapore to be more vibrant city which is like olden days Venice or modern day London, New York where there will be foreigner and exchange of lots of ideas and culture sharing.
-Grow our economy further, GDP growth to be in the top 20.
-There should be more variety of jobs and higher pay.
-Develop the arts and culture.
-Lower the new flat price to really affordable but yet do not affect all existing market resale value and ensure that these new flats will have a steady long term growth in price. Hope that our future new flats wont be smaller n smaller due to land mass using up in our country.
-Ministers to lower their pay or we have to increase our pay to be comparable.
-Keep inflation low and stable.
-After NEWater, we should come out with more things on agriculture, energy solutions and recycle culture.
-A powerful and strong defense force.
-Integrate all new immigrant together with the citizen regardless of race, language or religion, to build a justice and equality society so as to achieve happiness, prosperity and progress for our nation.
I think that most of the wishes are achievable and are interlink. I believe nothing come without hardwork, to achieve all these everyman have to work very hard for these. But I agree myself that the statement on housing is abit ideal or even not feasible.Pls someone help to thk of a solution to our rising cost of housing issue.
Mkt update & Osama is killed according to source
Hey folk
Osama have been killed and this would lift the stock market. USD have fallen.
however USD rise will be temporarily.The chart are still many series of bear flag.
Osama have been killed and this would lift the stock market. USD have fallen.
however USD rise will be temporarily.The chart are still many series of bear flag.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
Looking at the chart of asia market. We are awaiting some news or what to drive the market either up or down.
Probably for Singapore, we are waiting for the election result or what not.
Do not be emotion when come to trading.Some people are telling me, if the opposition win, i am going to buy in the market. It do not make any sense out of that because these is purely emotional and your opinion.
On the other side, as i said the hot money have flow back to the west, especially USA. The stock market over there are more rosy.
Looking at the chart of asia market. We are awaiting some news or what to drive the market either up or down.
Probably for Singapore, we are waiting for the election result or what not.
Do not be emotion when come to trading.Some people are telling me, if the opposition win, i am going to buy in the market. It do not make any sense out of that because these is purely emotional and your opinion.
On the other side, as i said the hot money have flow back to the west, especially USA. The stock market over there are more rosy.
Friday, April 29, 2011
S&P500 forecast
Alright
Forecast of S&P500 and Emini S&P500 futures end of the year => 1630s to 40s
Currently trading about 1350s. Will hit 1380s soon.
Forecast of S&P500 and Emini S&P500 futures end of the year => 1630s to 40s
Currently trading about 1350s. Will hit 1380s soon.
Mkt update
Hey folk
So my forecast of the stocks till year end are going higher for the US indices. The commodities will also move higher. US dollar however, would move lower. That is a natural reaction when the Dollar is lower commodities move higher. Bonds price will continue to move lower too.
Hot money are moving back to the US. So i expect Asia to be a lagger or follower. And the rising price of crude, have lead to businesses feeling the heat in emerging economy in Asia.
Economy recovery are not all rosy. The US govt is using certain tools to move up the stock market some one have to pay the price. The US dollar are paying the price. This will sure lead to higher commodities price which lead to high inflation. At some point when the whole situation turn right, US govt will raise interest rate. US dollar will move higher. The commodities will put in their top, the situation will be back to normal again.
However the situation is. However you dislike it. Please do not let your emotion take control of that. Trade as what technical analysis tell you to.
So my forecast of the stocks till year end are going higher for the US indices. The commodities will also move higher. US dollar however, would move lower. That is a natural reaction when the Dollar is lower commodities move higher. Bonds price will continue to move lower too.
Hot money are moving back to the US. So i expect Asia to be a lagger or follower. And the rising price of crude, have lead to businesses feeling the heat in emerging economy in Asia.
Economy recovery are not all rosy. The US govt is using certain tools to move up the stock market some one have to pay the price. The US dollar are paying the price. This will sure lead to higher commodities price which lead to high inflation. At some point when the whole situation turn right, US govt will raise interest rate. US dollar will move higher. The commodities will put in their top, the situation will be back to normal again.
However the situation is. However you dislike it. Please do not let your emotion take control of that. Trade as what technical analysis tell you to.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
S&P500
Hey folk
The S&P 500 is on route to hit the level of 1630s to 40s by end of the year.
The next target for S&p500 is 1380s level.
The S&P 500 is on route to hit the level of 1630s to 40s by end of the year.
The next target for S&p500 is 1380s level.
GE and QE
Hey folk
The FED is holding the interest rate steady and the bond buying activities will end on schedule as of June 30th. More update of the 2011 and 2012 forecast coming up.
General election, We are all going to vote this time except for Tanjong Pagar GRC. I am under Marine Parade GRC. Fantastic!!
I shall not say which party i favour more, but a GRC is a team, why compare individual like the 2 young ladies. They are both capable to serve the people. But the group that can serve us better is the best choice. To be honest, I dont see any opposition can take on the role as a government. They can be a second voice for us in the parliament, but to run a country i really doubt so.
The FED is holding the interest rate steady and the bond buying activities will end on schedule as of June 30th. More update of the 2011 and 2012 forecast coming up.
General election, We are all going to vote this time except for Tanjong Pagar GRC. I am under Marine Parade GRC. Fantastic!!
I shall not say which party i favour more, but a GRC is a team, why compare individual like the 2 young ladies. They are both capable to serve the people. But the group that can serve us better is the best choice. To be honest, I dont see any opposition can take on the role as a government. They can be a second voice for us in the parliament, but to run a country i really doubt so.
Regarding previous post
Hey folk
My apology to the previous post...i mean the US mkt is set to look good and not the Asia mkt. sorry for the confusion.However let wait for what the FED is going to say later before entry
My apology to the previous post...i mean the US mkt is set to look good and not the Asia mkt. sorry for the confusion.However let wait for what the FED is going to say later before entry
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
I been waiting for the market to show me the direction. Finally i think the direction is set, the market may go up as the inverse H&S is formed. Today is an historic event, it is a FED policy interest rate decision meeting today ending unusually early at 12:30 pm OST.
Additionally, we are to witness the first ever regularly scheduled FED Chairman press conference. The markets will literally hang on every word Mr Bernanke utters.
I dont think that Ben Bernanke will move the interest rate higher today. If he does, we are in a great reversal.
S&P500 hav hit my target for this month of 1340s yeah yeah...Moving all the way to 1630s - 40s at the end of the year.
I been waiting for the market to show me the direction. Finally i think the direction is set, the market may go up as the inverse H&S is formed. Today is an historic event, it is a FED policy interest rate decision meeting today ending unusually early at 12:30 pm OST.
Additionally, we are to witness the first ever regularly scheduled FED Chairman press conference. The markets will literally hang on every word Mr Bernanke utters.
I dont think that Ben Bernanke will move the interest rate higher today. If he does, we are in a great reversal.
S&P500 hav hit my target for this month of 1340s yeah yeah...Moving all the way to 1630s - 40s at the end of the year.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
US dollar
Look at the chart of the US dollar. Bearish flag all over. There are 2 bearish flag in the picture where it is a failure. There are bearish flags within a big bearish flag. The triangle in the picture is the pennant or triangle with the false break out happening usually in the 60 to 70% mark.
Hope it is useful. Bearish flag do produce market drop.
We are in a long holiday this week. The market have went up. Would it substain? My take is to see monday. Good Friday or Easter holiday is well respect and obey by many people world wide. Fund managers or traders would take their holiday and would not be in the market. So when monday is back, when traders are in, we may see the correct direction coming in.
Cheers
US dollar
Look at the chart of the US dollar. Bearish flag all over. There are 2 bearish flag in the picture where it is a failure. There are bearish flags within a big bearish flag. The triangle in the picture is the pennant or triangle with the false break out happening usually in the 60 to 70% mark.
Hope it is useful. Bearish flag do produce market drop.
We are in a long holiday this week. The market have went up. Would it substain? My take is to see monday. Good Friday or Easter holiday is well respect and obey by many people world wide. Fund managers or traders would take their holiday and would not be in the market. So when monday is back, when traders are in, we may see the correct direction coming in.
Cheers
Movement that i encourage
Hey folk
In trading in the market, 1 buy = 1 sell.
If you were to sell, someone must buy from you, if not that sale is not possible.
If you were to buy, someone must sell to you, if not that buy is not possible.
Which meant to say that, though we do not know who we win the money from or who we buy the stocks from, but there is someone out there that buy from or sell to us.
So if you were to make money out of the market, somebody got to lost money. Maybe this bit of money that the person lost is so important to them, they may use to pay for their child education, for their spouses or parents medical fee or whatever reasons. I do hope and encourage people whom make money from the market to donate an amount that is comfortable to them to charity. Help to make the world a better place. To help the less fortunate, to help people whom do not have the financial education like you and I, or to help whoever.
What goes around comes around.
Also not forgetting, i am also encourage that we get speculators out of the crude oil market.
Cheers have a nice weekend.
In trading in the market, 1 buy = 1 sell.
If you were to sell, someone must buy from you, if not that sale is not possible.
If you were to buy, someone must sell to you, if not that buy is not possible.
Which meant to say that, though we do not know who we win the money from or who we buy the stocks from, but there is someone out there that buy from or sell to us.
So if you were to make money out of the market, somebody got to lost money. Maybe this bit of money that the person lost is so important to them, they may use to pay for their child education, for their spouses or parents medical fee or whatever reasons. I do hope and encourage people whom make money from the market to donate an amount that is comfortable to them to charity. Help to make the world a better place. To help the less fortunate, to help people whom do not have the financial education like you and I, or to help whoever.
What goes around comes around.
Also not forgetting, i am also encourage that we get speculators out of the crude oil market.
Cheers have a nice weekend.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Good friday
Hey good friday is coming
like my previous post. there might be a reversal. Hope you stay out till next week mon. Lots of funds manager are on holiday, traders are out, most people are enjoying. Dont be in a market that has thin volume and great volatilty.
Happy long weekend. Happy good friday
like my previous post. there might be a reversal. Hope you stay out till next week mon. Lots of funds manager are on holiday, traders are out, most people are enjoying. Dont be in a market that has thin volume and great volatilty.
Happy long weekend. Happy good friday
Mkt update
Hey folk
Like i said before in many postings before, get the speculators out of the crude oil market. Crude oil is essential to our livelihood. It would determine what the price are we going to pump our petrol, the gas we use to cook, the SBS bus fare, the electricity bills that we pay and any direct or indirect things that crude is needed.
Crude oil is so important that every country in the world needs it. Crude would not face a liquidity problem even the speculator are not in the market. The speculator are the one that can drive the cost of the crude sky rocket and greatly affect our economy.
I think we can start looking for stock to buy now. The S&P500 rating dont seem to affect the market. We are entering a long weekend. It is good friday. It is respected by many around the world. So i do expect a market reversal after that.
Dow Jones transport to go above 5280s, for new heights to set in.
Dow Jones Ind go above 122339s, for new heights to set in.
HSI and STI, we have to see their closing today. Too much gaps in the asia market.
EminiS&P futures to go above 1319s, for new heights. ( the forecast till end of the year is still unchanged: it is 1630-40s)
A word of cautious, there are divergence in the indicator with respect to the price. So trade with care.
Gold went higher and hit 1500 yesterday, it is the safe heaven for investor whenever things sound wrong.
Currency
USD will continue to go lower.
Euro on the flip side is going higher.
AUD is interesting, as you'll find a relationship with the Dow movement.
Like i said before in many postings before, get the speculators out of the crude oil market. Crude oil is essential to our livelihood. It would determine what the price are we going to pump our petrol, the gas we use to cook, the SBS bus fare, the electricity bills that we pay and any direct or indirect things that crude is needed.
Crude oil is so important that every country in the world needs it. Crude would not face a liquidity problem even the speculator are not in the market. The speculator are the one that can drive the cost of the crude sky rocket and greatly affect our economy.
I think we can start looking for stock to buy now. The S&P500 rating dont seem to affect the market. We are entering a long weekend. It is good friday. It is respected by many around the world. So i do expect a market reversal after that.
Dow Jones transport to go above 5280s, for new heights to set in.
Dow Jones Ind go above 122339s, for new heights to set in.
HSI and STI, we have to see their closing today. Too much gaps in the asia market.
EminiS&P futures to go above 1319s, for new heights. ( the forecast till end of the year is still unchanged: it is 1630-40s)
A word of cautious, there are divergence in the indicator with respect to the price. So trade with care.
Gold went higher and hit 1500 yesterday, it is the safe heaven for investor whenever things sound wrong.
Currency
USD will continue to go lower.
Euro on the flip side is going higher.
AUD is interesting, as you'll find a relationship with the Dow movement.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
Right now, it is also a good time to spot where the mkt will drop until and also to react when the market move up again. So do your homework.
I will post some forecast by tmr.
Right now, it is also a good time to spot where the mkt will drop until and also to react when the market move up again. So do your homework.
I will post some forecast by tmr.
Mkt update
Hey folk
Here we go. The market is down, worldwide. Gold as safe heaven is lifted. Standard & Poor’s also said that it revised its outlook on the long-term rating of the U.S. sovereign to negative from stable.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-sps-downgrade-of-us-ratings-outlook-2011-04-18
As i said in my many previous posting on the blog, a drop is coming. Here we are. Shorted?? good luck and congrate!!!
Here we go. The market is down, worldwide. Gold as safe heaven is lifted. Standard & Poor’s also said that it revised its outlook on the long-term rating of the U.S. sovereign to negative from stable.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/text-of-sps-downgrade-of-us-ratings-outlook-2011-04-18
As i said in my many previous posting on the blog, a drop is coming. Here we are. Shorted?? good luck and congrate!!!
Sunday, April 17, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
Alright, on thur we see the US indices to go up. It went up higher than the low on Wed. As this is a swing day ( for technical analysis) so you would expect on Fri the mkt to go higher.
However this do not tell you that the mkt would go higher for now, it mean momentary going higher. So let see how the US mkt is like on Monday then we can decide for the on going trend.
I do expect US mkt to move faster than Asia mkt.
Gold is the way up man.It should go up to about 1550s by the end of the year.
USD will continue to go weaker.
Alright, on thur we see the US indices to go up. It went up higher than the low on Wed. As this is a swing day ( for technical analysis) so you would expect on Fri the mkt to go higher.
However this do not tell you that the mkt would go higher for now, it mean momentary going higher. So let see how the US mkt is like on Monday then we can decide for the on going trend.
I do expect US mkt to move faster than Asia mkt.
Gold is the way up man.It should go up to about 1550s by the end of the year.
USD will continue to go weaker.
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Mkt update (upmove today. Fantastic??)
Hey folk
We see a upmove today. Fantastic???
But if you are still long, i think you might have trouble soon.
Yesterday we see Dow going down by 117 , the Emini s&P500 down about 12 points. Today, alot of people will think that is a down day for Asia. So lots of people would want to cut lost or start to short the market.
Here the big boys come and play with us. They decide to lift the market up today, people whom want to cut lost may hold back, people whom wish to short or started shorting would also hold back or caught by surprise. And when retail investor caught by surprise they start to be confuse. That the big boys intention.
If retail start to sell, someone got to buy them. Nobody can continue shorting if everyone start to sell. I think this is a setup to trap retail investor. This is the psychology part of the market.
Technical indicator, volume also tell us that the drop is not over, so if you are still long, please get out.
Nth is 100%, i may be dead wrong.Having said that i am not staying out of the market.
We see a upmove today. Fantastic???
But if you are still long, i think you might have trouble soon.
Yesterday we see Dow going down by 117 , the Emini s&P500 down about 12 points. Today, alot of people will think that is a down day for Asia. So lots of people would want to cut lost or start to short the market.
Here the big boys come and play with us. They decide to lift the market up today, people whom want to cut lost may hold back, people whom wish to short or started shorting would also hold back or caught by surprise. And when retail investor caught by surprise they start to be confuse. That the big boys intention.
If retail start to sell, someone got to buy them. Nobody can continue shorting if everyone start to sell. I think this is a setup to trap retail investor. This is the psychology part of the market.
Technical indicator, volume also tell us that the drop is not over, so if you are still long, please get out.
Nth is 100%, i may be dead wrong.Having said that i am not staying out of the market.
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Mkt update
hey folk
I think this selling is coming in abit heavy.Like i said yesterday, take profit...if not you might have trouble.
good luck
I think this selling is coming in abit heavy.Like i said yesterday, take profit...if not you might have trouble.
good luck
Sunday, April 10, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
I do expect the market to have pull backs for the next few days, as said in the previous few postings. This pull back can range from 3 - 8% in different market.
I do not expect a crash but just a healthy pull back before the major rally come in again.
The major indices around the world , are going to formed a inverse H&S, which mean it would move up more.
On the weekly chart of the indices, they are all bulllish. Which support the idea of a stronger upmove in the near future.
Eur/USD is going to be stronger and stronger.Lots of bullish flag on the EUR while lots of bearish flag on the USD. The relationship still stay when the USD goes down the stock mkt goes up. There are people teling me that dont make sense..BUT No matter how good your fundamental you are, you are not the head of the FED, the fundamental always come out on the chart first, whatever they are doing now is good for the stock mkt.
I also do expect US mkt in the near future to perform better than the Asia mkt. Hot money is printed there, it came to Asia and left, now it is going back where the origin is...
Gold is going to hit new high again... i guess this precious metal is going above 1500 per ounce.
I do expect the market to have pull backs for the next few days, as said in the previous few postings. This pull back can range from 3 - 8% in different market.
I do not expect a crash but just a healthy pull back before the major rally come in again.
The major indices around the world , are going to formed a inverse H&S, which mean it would move up more.
On the weekly chart of the indices, they are all bulllish. Which support the idea of a stronger upmove in the near future.
Eur/USD is going to be stronger and stronger.Lots of bullish flag on the EUR while lots of bearish flag on the USD. The relationship still stay when the USD goes down the stock mkt goes up. There are people teling me that dont make sense..BUT No matter how good your fundamental you are, you are not the head of the FED, the fundamental always come out on the chart first, whatever they are doing now is good for the stock mkt.
I also do expect US mkt in the near future to perform better than the Asia mkt. Hot money is printed there, it came to Asia and left, now it is going back where the origin is...
Gold is going to hit new high again... i guess this precious metal is going above 1500 per ounce.
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
Mkt update
Hey Folk
Dow Jones Transportation
Dow jones Ind
Dow Ind also do have weakness in the price.
As i am typing Dow transportation is down 17 points.
Dow Jones Transportation
Dow jones Ind
Dow Ind also do have weakness in the price.
As i am typing Dow transportation is down 17 points.
Mkt update
Hey folk
The Dow jones Transport currently is on negative while the rest of the indices are in positive.
i will show you some charts shortly
The Dow jones Transport currently is on negative while the rest of the indices are in positive.
i will show you some charts shortly
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
Mkt update
Hey folk
Commodities are off their highs, which mean to say probably economic activities are not enough to drive up the prices. When this happen it mean that the stock mkt should be going down too.
STI went up as high as 3160s and close 3147, these show weakness. HSI PUT warrant also have lots of volume, if you look at the market.
Crude oil may also have a drop as the COT is still showing net short. And crude oil up the market goes up. Crude oil down the market goes down.
SGX is a short. They have problem taking over ASX.
Europe region: Moody have downgrade Portugal govt bonds
Currently as i am typing europe region is down, US indices are in red too.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-downgrades-portugal-to-baa1-2011-04-05
Commodities are off their highs, which mean to say probably economic activities are not enough to drive up the prices. When this happen it mean that the stock mkt should be going down too.
STI went up as high as 3160s and close 3147, these show weakness. HSI PUT warrant also have lots of volume, if you look at the market.
Crude oil may also have a drop as the COT is still showing net short. And crude oil up the market goes up. Crude oil down the market goes down.
SGX is a short. They have problem taking over ASX.
Europe region: Moody have downgrade Portugal govt bonds
Currently as i am typing europe region is down, US indices are in red too.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-downgrades-portugal-to-baa1-2011-04-05
Getting long term financial plan right first 2
I wish to emphasis on getting your long term financial plan right first and the short and medium would be right.
As the word long term, mean long term, which really mean you need some long years eg 20 to 40 years. On the long term basis, stock market always move up. See the historical chart of Dow, STI etc, it move higher n higher. In other words to say, if you start you long term financial plan early ( mean you have many years to play with) your return will be higher even if you manage it passively. It is a little effort with good long term result benefit.
Assuming the market condition goes through the same cycle in the next 40 years, I do a long term financial plan earlier than person A. Assuming we have equal money and equal capability, I invested lesser and get more. Person A would need to invest much more to get what i got. This is the power of compounding.
Many rich have seen that, they have started this for their children and for themselves since young.
Most people want to retire early and live a good life after that. They want to have options and the choice to work or not. The only way to that is to have no worry for their finances. So by getting you long term financial plan right first, help you to eliminate these worry and whatever short of medium plan you do, will help you achieve all these faster with confident.
As the word long term, mean long term, which really mean you need some long years eg 20 to 40 years. On the long term basis, stock market always move up. See the historical chart of Dow, STI etc, it move higher n higher. In other words to say, if you start you long term financial plan early ( mean you have many years to play with) your return will be higher even if you manage it passively. It is a little effort with good long term result benefit.
Assuming the market condition goes through the same cycle in the next 40 years, I do a long term financial plan earlier than person A. Assuming we have equal money and equal capability, I invested lesser and get more. Person A would need to invest much more to get what i got. This is the power of compounding.
Many rich have seen that, they have started this for their children and for themselves since young.
Most people want to retire early and live a good life after that. They want to have options and the choice to work or not. The only way to that is to have no worry for their finances. So by getting you long term financial plan right first, help you to eliminate these worry and whatever short of medium plan you do, will help you achieve all these faster with confident.
Monday, April 4, 2011
Mkt update
Hey Folk
The indices in asia put in a very nice up move today.
But i want to cautious you guys on somethings:
1) light volume is seen
2) Blue chips are not setting new high like the index
So stay cautious. Do not buy in at this point of time. If you wish to buy, you should have done it quite some time ago.
NTH is 100%. I may be so wrong.
The indices in asia put in a very nice up move today.
But i want to cautious you guys on somethings:
1) light volume is seen
2) Blue chips are not setting new high like the index
So stay cautious. Do not buy in at this point of time. If you wish to buy, you should have done it quite some time ago.
NTH is 100%. I may be so wrong.
Sunday, April 3, 2011
Mkt story
Hey Here some updates on the fundamental:
After the natural disaster that happened in Japan, their nuclear reactor are still causing problem. They are still unable to stabilize the reactor temperature which cause the stocks market to be very cautious. The market have recover fully since the tsunami hit Japan, but there are a few factors that are hindering the upmove now.
The few factors are:
1) Europe region are undergoing stress test on their government bonds on April. Countries like Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (basically the PIIGS). If they do not pass the test, we are going to experience another round of recession. However, my take is, they are too big to fail. The European Union will support them in anyway to let them pass these stress test.
2) Japan nuclear reactor still unstable, which alot of buyer of the market are staying at sideline. Japan being heavily dependent on nuclear power, now have to depend on crude oil to power their country. That cause the demand of crude oil to increase thus increase the price.
So overall, the market do not have any reasons to support the upmove as of now. So i expect the market to pull back alittle before another upmove will come. The upmove could happen on April after the Euro region have succeed in their stress test.
On the bright side:
1) US employment data have significantly improved, and they are on the route and on track to recover. The 'Hard Truth to keep Singapore going' book by MM Lee, have highlighted that US will sure recover, but just a matter of time.
2) China have problems with inflation, which actually is not something to worry about. China have the largest amount of reserve in the world. It is only whether the government want to 'flex their muscle' or not. They have the capability to control the economy of their country. She is also on route to be the number one country of the world in 20 - 30 years time.
3) Asia as a whole will have higher growth in term of GDP than the western countries. As the western side of the world economy recover, Asia would grow faster. Bcos we are the manufacturer and they are the user.
4) Commodities price will be higher as the demand for them is getting larger. As Asia grow more and more wealthy, the usage of commodities would increase. Thus commodities like crude oil, copper, titanium, grains, soft commodities etc will experience a increase in demand thus higher in price.
After the natural disaster that happened in Japan, their nuclear reactor are still causing problem. They are still unable to stabilize the reactor temperature which cause the stocks market to be very cautious. The market have recover fully since the tsunami hit Japan, but there are a few factors that are hindering the upmove now.
The few factors are:
1) Europe region are undergoing stress test on their government bonds on April. Countries like Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain (basically the PIIGS). If they do not pass the test, we are going to experience another round of recession. However, my take is, they are too big to fail. The European Union will support them in anyway to let them pass these stress test.
2) Japan nuclear reactor still unstable, which alot of buyer of the market are staying at sideline. Japan being heavily dependent on nuclear power, now have to depend on crude oil to power their country. That cause the demand of crude oil to increase thus increase the price.
So overall, the market do not have any reasons to support the upmove as of now. So i expect the market to pull back alittle before another upmove will come. The upmove could happen on April after the Euro region have succeed in their stress test.
On the bright side:
1) US employment data have significantly improved, and they are on the route and on track to recover. The 'Hard Truth to keep Singapore going' book by MM Lee, have highlighted that US will sure recover, but just a matter of time.
2) China have problems with inflation, which actually is not something to worry about. China have the largest amount of reserve in the world. It is only whether the government want to 'flex their muscle' or not. They have the capability to control the economy of their country. She is also on route to be the number one country of the world in 20 - 30 years time.
3) Asia as a whole will have higher growth in term of GDP than the western countries. As the western side of the world economy recover, Asia would grow faster. Bcos we are the manufacturer and they are the user.
4) Commodities price will be higher as the demand for them is getting larger. As Asia grow more and more wealthy, the usage of commodities would increase. Thus commodities like crude oil, copper, titanium, grains, soft commodities etc will experience a increase in demand thus higher in price.
Mkt update
Hey folk
I been busy with many things that why dint update the blog.
I want to highlight a few things. My take is the market is going for a pull back. However, it dint, on friday, US market Dow Jones transportation break a new high since 2009. For Monday trading, Asia market may move higher or maybe it would start high and close low. Nth is 100%.
Dow Jones Transport
Dow transport have hit a resistance too and unable to close above it on fri.
Dow Jones Industries
Dow Ind have a very nice up move last week. However for Wed, Thur and Fri, the closing price could not go above 12393.
Emini S&P500 (Futures Jun contract)
Emini S&P500 Futures (Jun Contract) closes at 1327. The DH is 1333, but dint able to close above 1330.
Hang Seng Index
HSI have hit 23815. Whether it can close above this on Monday will be critical.
Strait Time Index
Yes STI have go against all odds, however we are follower. We have to see what the big brothers are doing before we can conclude. Stay tune.
Crude oil: From COT, the commercial are still net short on the crude but have some buying activities. So crude may move higher.
I been busy with many things that why dint update the blog.
I want to highlight a few things. My take is the market is going for a pull back. However, it dint, on friday, US market Dow Jones transportation break a new high since 2009. For Monday trading, Asia market may move higher or maybe it would start high and close low. Nth is 100%.
Dow Jones Transport
Dow transport have hit a resistance too and unable to close above it on fri.
Dow Jones Industries
Dow Ind have a very nice up move last week. However for Wed, Thur and Fri, the closing price could not go above 12393.
Emini S&P500 (Futures Jun contract)
Emini S&P500 Futures (Jun Contract) closes at 1327. The DH is 1333, but dint able to close above 1330.
Hang Seng Index
HSI have hit 23815. Whether it can close above this on Monday will be critical.
Strait Time Index
Yes STI have go against all odds, however we are follower. We have to see what the big brothers are doing before we can conclude. Stay tune.
Crude oil: From COT, the commercial are still net short on the crude but have some buying activities. So crude may move higher.
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