Mkt update

The market have a little problem clearing the double top. While Dow transport did it, the rest have not follow through well enough.
For tomorrow and Thursday, the PIGS in the euro region are having some big announcement.Probably it will affect the market.
IF the market cant break out, then it will come down. If it break out, then it will rally further.

Bond

This is long term bond. Bond have been top out, a H&S is also formed. Bond is going down. If bond is going down, this suggest that stocks is moving up.

Recap on Month of Nov and what coming up

On Oct 29th, I knew I was wrong about October prediction of a drop to set in.
However I post on my blog saying that a drop may come in. Then 8 Nov 2010, I said on my blog that a blast through happen and if it don’t stay it will correct. Indeed it dint continue to move up for the next 3 days and on the fourth day, which is the 12 Nov it came down. Subsequently on 15 Nov 2010 onwards , I did a few posting on the market may head down more.
The blast through on 8 Nov 2010 make the market wanting to create a higher high and I knew that a market cant move vertically upwards, so I was cautious. Then the next 3 days, the market slow, it move sideways and on the 12 Nov, it came down. This is when I confirm that a drop will come in.
Right now we see a nice consolidation; a up move will come probably next week. Now it is like shaking off some dust to make itself lighter to run a longer distance.



This is a comparison of US dollar index and Dow Jones Industries. I purposely made it in a line chart so that the difference can be seen clearly. The stock market really do move with the dollar Index. The dollar index goes high, the market drop. Observe carefully the relationship.



Next we have a comparison of the Dow Jones Transportation and the Dow Jones industries. Look at the King of king (Dow Transport), a H&S set in but it break out, and formed a new high. It totally break out of the high that is set in the beginning of Nov. Dow Jones Industries as a follower too have a H&S, and it will follow the leader.



Here we have a comparison of the Dow Jones Transportation and the S&P500. Look at the King of king (Dow Transport), a H&S set in but it break out, and formed a new high. It totally break out of the high that is set in the beginning of Nov. S&P500 like the Dow industries is a follower too have a H&S, and it will follow the leader.



Last of all, we have Dow Jones Industries and the STI. The STI have not shown a H&S yet,but there is a clear strong support level at 3120.So if it follow the US indices, up is the way to go.

Market update

Hi
What a nice up run from the market. I expect some profit taking to set in today. Too much good things come together at the same time. So if it lose it drive to move up further, the market will come down a little. Remember that i said that the market will come down for the next few weeks. It wil turn around soon. Probably next week.

Stocks

Despite the calling of the general trend to come down abit, i still buy stock due to it break out from technical buy point.
I am long on Indoagri ytd at 2.63 right now is trading at 2.71.

Another stock to watch is Genting. Can enter at 2.06.

mkt update

The world market still have abit more to drop before a up move.

Crude oil
Using technical my technical analysis, crude oil is going into selling. The selling will continue till about next week.

Stock market
The stock market around the world too will be continue selling. My 5 weeks advance have show rebound and then drop again till early Dec.My technical analysis have also show continuous selling. Common Technical analysis have show weakness too. From these analysis, there maybe another 2% drop.

Nothing is ever 100%. This is just my own opinion.

Nkorea and Skorea exchange artillery fire

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/1095109/1/.html
Nkorea and Skorea exchange artillery fire and killed two marines and injured 18 soldiers or civilians on a South Korean border island.

This has caused the regional market to have further bloodshed today. Same for the US market, the futures market of Dow, NASDAQ and S&P have went down 1% so far.

Mkt update

After taking a look at the weekly and daily chart of major indices, the selling is not over yet.
On last thur 18 Nov, Dow jones went up 174 points, but STI on friday did not response to that. In fact, it went down. HSI too went down. That why i am still not long in the market.

US market is going to open in red??

In 1 hr time the US market is opening, I think it will be red and a 1 to 2 % drop maybe seen today.

Market movement

Hey folk

It is rather simple and everyone know that we are in a drop. Let get the general trend right, we are in a up trend.This is a big overall trend. Now we are having pull back.

In normal situation, when the dollar is strong, Gold will go down and the stock will go up. But in situation like now, which is quite irrational, when the dollar is weak, Gold and the stock goes up together. Because there are buyer that wanted a safe heaven that is gold and buyer who want to buy stock. So look at crude to lead the stocks. As economy is growing, the demand of oil will grow too thus the price of crude.

As i said in the last few posting that a big move will lead the way. A big up move have occur and it result a up n up n up move since 1st Nov in STI, the Us indices on the subsequent day. From technical point of view the up move is scary. Almost vertical, that is when i am cautious about it. I did bought stocks (as i said be long at the end of Oct, it came true) but in small quantity. This drop is a healthy drop. As all good bull run would have a drop and continue on the up move. I am still bullish on the overall trend.

Gd luck

Crude, Gold and Dow

Hey folk
Oh boy oh boy...
You seen the explosion of the market. If it dont fall it will blast through.

Right now you see crude oil, Dow jones and Gold hitting double top. It has pass through the double top by alittle, let see if it can stay. If it can stay then up up it will go. If not, then a correction will set in.

I am in Cosco. 1st Nov at 1.9, right now 8th Nov is 2.06..oh yeah baby.

QE 2: some view of the big name investor

I got this website from a friend of mine. Very interesting.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/markets-blog/big-name-investors-pull-no-punches-on-qe2/article1775439/
This website bring us to a over all view of the economy.
This crisis we are going through here is the first ever. In human history, we have never meet this before. So there is no past record to base on. There is like no past year paper for us to know what will happen. The FED do not know what will happen, Obama do not know what will happen.

The new QE may work or may not work. The 1st QE essentially printing money to buy government bonds – was introduced during the worst days of the financial crisis, and largely credited with rescuing the global economy.
The QE2 is a cure-all for high unemployment, a depressed housing market and a U.S. stock market that is still well off its 2007 highs.

So are this all gimmick, ponzi etc...Well is for us to find out. Maybe the whole world economy is going to be worst off.Maybe is getting better.

Funds in general

From fund managers, they have some take on the funds:

1. Asia and Emerging markets is going to benefit due to the expected liquidity injection and rising commodity prices.

2. China and India will not be adversely affected, they are expected to continue to grow in their own way

3. Japan and Europe may struggle.

4. Trade war and protectionalism is the risk and fear but it’s not expected to happen.

I would like to ask my friends that are in the semiconductor area, what is rare earth?? What material is that? 90% of rare earth is in China. What more happening is that rare earth is the new material, that will be use in semiconductor. Which will lead to a new generation of technology. China has 90% of this material, so sure they are going to benefit. Moreover, the future of technology will come from them.

Mkt update for this week and coming

Hey Folk

Stock market for this week
Very exciting week. We have most of asia market down this week. STI, Hang Seng down. We have in the US, Dow, Nasdaq and s&P almost flat as of thur.

US dollar & crude
US dollar is bouncing up and down with the crude oil having the same behaviour too.

So how are they doing??
Right now we see something interesting about the Stock market and the US dollar. It De-sync or the right word to use it is it does not synchronizes. The stock market is moving along with the crude oil now.They are moving together. The crude probably is going to test 80 per barrel today.So if that happen, Dow will go down to about 11000 or below. Which will bring the asia market down when we open on monday.
One Sign tell us that, that is STI went up today. But notice that there are more loser than gainer. Also the banks stocks 2 down and 1 up. The property counter that are in the STI are also down.With minor gain in the commodities stocks.So this sign tell alot.

Probably the drop is coming.But again, i will be dead wrong like how i thought it will be in Oct.I still uses the same technical analysis to look at them. I am still staying sideline.

Next up on some funds report by various funds managers......

Major move will lead the way

I am waiting for some major move. Observe the chart and you notice some very interesting fact, small movement be get big movement, big movement be get small movement.
Gold is going south.Most stock indices are having small movement so far.Bonds too are trading in a range.

Will a drop come??

Hey folk
been pretty busy this few days. So where the market is heading into. Well initial study show me that the market is going up. Have no doubt about it, it is moving higher n higher. But i take a closer look at the market, commodities, Dollar index, Bond and Gold and i found out that is abit confuse where the market is heading. That why i been staying in the sideline for sometime.
However, if there is a drop, then it time for accumulation to start and if there is a breakout towards the upside, then buying in would also be a good idea. Dont ever think or guess or put your opinion into the market. You think the market is high. So you wish it will drop.But if the market will to move up another 10% higher.Today value is lower than the 10% upmove.Which mean to say now is the low and the high is the near future.

Apology

Hey folk
I got to apologise on the forecast that the market is going to drop in Oct.
Nothing is ever 100% in investing and trading.We are approaching to the end of Oct and not a week drop.There seems to be a broadbase buying everytime the market drop.
The 5 weeks advance this time round fail me as well as the 4 year cycle.
Further study is made and technical analysis shows both buy and short signal. There are signs that show the market is going to drop and signs show that the market is going up higher.

Let us see a few more days on the market development.If the market dont drop, then we shall follow the market and be a buyer. If the market eventually turn south then we shall be a seller. Let not fight against the market with our opinion or feeling that Ohhh the market is up so much, it time to drop.If a drop wont come it wont come. As it was like in 2006 thru 2007.

I would also email my beloved clients one stock for medium term investment. Probably 200% to 400% profit can be made. Medium term is about 3 to 5 years.

Nothing is ever 100%, so put your stops in.Dont get emotion into trading or investing as this will cause you to be very irrational and believe in your own way. I do not have any method that is 100% at all cause if i do then that will be the last trade of my life.

US dollar and S&P500 relationship

This is the UUP- dollar bullish index and the S&P500
So here is the Dollar that play the trick again.Dollar down Stock up. Inflationary rally, which cost commodities price to rally which mean goods price will be more expensive in the future.Notice something on the chart. The market is moving lesser as the dollar fall. It has a very strong support level for the dollar. So it may hit that support line and do a rally.

i m wrong

ooops i m wrong abt today mkt...the crude when up and the US indices too as of now...
nothing is 100% so also trade with stops

Heading South??

Hey folk

I think Crude will be trading lower. So does the US indices too.

MAPLETREE INDUSTRY TRUST IPO

Good morning

OMGIF = omg is Friday. To new trader out there who just started trading or learning how to trade, there is a symptoms that will haunt u. you wont TGIF, but u will OMGIF. you dont want Friday to come, because the next day the market is close and you cant trade, the next next day unfortunately is Sunday and the market is close again.This 2 days for you will be somewhat boring and no $$ can be made.That is why the symptoms comes in. However, i urge you guys not to rush, stay patient stay calm. This 2 days of rest is to do ample research for the following week to come.So if you are serious in this business, this is a ongoing process and is not going to be easy.

MAPLETREE INDUSTRY TRUST IPO
Alright alot of people have ask me about mapletree industry trust IPO. It launching at 0.93 / lot. It is a property trust, which owns factories and other industrial properties in Singapore.
chk out this site http://sg.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20101011/tap-mapletree-ipo-c3bb44c.html
It has many interest from institution investor. It would be a good dividend stock as REIT is more of a dividend than capital appreciation. It let you have property in your portfolio without being the landlord.So have a long term horizon on this will be good to have a effective return.
For new traders or investor, please note that for IPO balloting, you might not get the number of stock that you want. As in you apply 10lots, maybe you get 1 lot.
So if you wish to sell it out quick, do you maths right.
For buy + sell fee = approx $50. So those who get 1 lot, to earn $50 the stock have to trade at $1.04 which is a 11% upmove.So get it right.Pls dont try to buy the stock from the market if you miss the IPO. The institution will love you alot, as you will be the person whom they sell you the stock and get cash from you.

So far there are 21 IPO this year of which there are 7 stocks that are trading higher than their IPO price and 14 trading lower than IPO price.
Average gain/lose in term of % from IPO price is -2.33%.
These are purely my own analysis, opinion, calculation. It is not a recommendation for any action to be taken.

Moving up mkt... buy??

Like my previous post said that be long end of Oct. There are people writing to me and ask me about you said is moving up but why are you not long, why wait till end of Oct. The analsysis is like this: The market seems strong. for the rest of the week or 1 week it gng to go up. But this are the last wave of people coming into the market. Which mean to say, people are buying higher and try to sell higher.I am not a trader that like to risk that. I prefer to buy at the low and sell high.
Unless you think this is worth the risk if not then dont do.I am a rather cautious trader that prefer to buy low sell high or sell high buy low.
So my take is still be long by end of Oct,the market is moving all they want for the pass few days, but i am totally not very active in the market these few days.

Rally is in the picture

Look at the market rally today.
I think the up move is going to stay. From Technical analysis point of view, it is going to stay probably for a good 1-2weeks. Mid term election, govt stimulus, continue to let the dollar continue to go lower, the market will get prop up or some say inflationary rally.

All the major indices and Euro currency index are trading in a parallel channel. The US indices have go through a triple top and move right through.

However my analysis of being long by end of Oct still stay. I believe a drop is near. But again, i can be real wrong about all this.

US dollar and the market 5 min intraday chart

US dollar index

S&P500


This is the 5 min chart of the dollar and the SnP500. Look at that move. When the dollar goes up the market come down, when the dollar goes down the market come up.

Right now we are seeing that the dollar are getting weaker, and look at the up move on the 5 min chart of the SnP500.

Market for today

Resilient yen, China raise reserve requirement to drain cash from the economy send asia stock down

The stock market is under pressure to come down. As you can see in the US market yesterday. Yesterday is Colombus day. The bank are having holiday. So the trading volume is light.The market move side ways for most part of the day and it went down and then recover at 4pm EST. If the market is really going up, this kind of scenario rarely happen. It would move up gradually.And trading volume is thin, which mean that anyone that have a hugh capital can manipulate the prices to go up or down.

Now you are seeing the market trending lower, due to earning report coming in and FED minutes at 2pm EST. Investor are cautious about it thus stay at the sideline. The main reason is still the Dollar.When the Dollar is up, the market will come down, when the Dollar is down the market will go up. Today we see the Dollar moving higher. So you too witness Gold is down, commodities like crude is down.

My forecast say the same.(as posted as my previous posting)
Stay tune

Mkt will trade lower

Congrat to those who short oil last nite.
The market is weak. It has difficulty moving higher.

Oil, Stock

My technical analysis tell me that crude oil is going to fall and stock as well.
Stock market will fall to end of Oct. So be long on end of Oct. It may move up all the way to next yr May. Not continuously as in day after day going up ...but it will move up till May 2011.

HSI , STI profit taking mode

I expect HSI and STI in profit taking from tomorrow.

GLD

Hey Folk

As i send out my email to all you people out there. As i have said that USD down is over done, look at the gold price...it drop by 15 bucks a 1% drop

What is happening in the market place

Global

The 1st half of the year, we witness EU region is hit badly by what could happen to Greece. and some of the European countries. This hit hard on Euro currency. On 2nd half of the year, these news disappear. Then the US will be introducing a series of stimulus measure to boost their employment rate and President Obama have also wanted to increase the export of US by 2X the current level. Obama have pull out troops from Iraq which also gain alot of support from his people.

In order to capture the votes of the unemployment, Obama and the Democratic Party now have to blame the cheap RMB for the US high unemployment.
RMB will become the long term political tussle between China and the US. However the actual fact is that when US exerted pressure on the issue, RMB would appreciate to record high, amd when US relented, RMB would weaken. China the number 2 economy in the world have bought USD 900 Billion of T bond from the US. In the effort of re-valute their portfolio, China have also buy more into Euro and Yen in their foreign reserve and sell USD. So that if the USD devalue against the RMB, China would not suffer a great lose.


Currency

USD have been depreciating as much as 10% since Jun 10. Imagine you have a 10 USD with you in Jun and right now it only worth 9 USD. Conversely, it is when the USD go weak that the commodities and the stock market went up. It attract foreign investors to buy their currency and invest in the US. This also helps to boost the country export. As most commodities are deal in USD, a cheaper USD would mean buying more of the commodities and also mean the supplier have to increase the price of the commodities to earn the equivalent of what they earn when the USD is stronger. Having said so the USD will remain weak as stimulus measure will be introduce and the want to increase export in the US.

China economy is growing tremendously but they do have their structural problem within their country. Premier Wen Jia Bao have stated that China have 4 stimulus that are going in the country 1 Massive public spending, 2 Adjusting and upgrading of industrial structure, 3 Scientific and technology to fuel everlasting growth 4 Improved social safety net. These measures would further enhance the growth of China economy. However, RMB would not appreciate in value overnight or in any shortterm. RMB would appreciate in the long run. China will bear in mind hw the Japanese suffer since they let Yen appreciate and in the long run if China is willing, RMB denominated treasury bills will become an important reserve currency of all the countries in the world.

Commodities

The CRB index (commodities research bureau index) have move up quite alot and near to the pre crisis level. The last time the CRB index have a great move up to the level is when Oil or the Energies are involved. For the past few months, you observed that the energies have not really taken part in this up move yet. Those commodities that have the major up move are the metal like gold, silver,copper, platinum, palladium, the grains like wheat, soy bean, corn, the soft like sugar, coffee, orange juice. Energy have not taken part in this up move as of a few months back. Right now you are seeing crude oil moving up about 10% since the end of Sept. Commodities price have still many room to grow as the world economy is growing.

Stock markets

The market for the past 2 years is driven by the USD. When USD is down the market is up and when the USD is up the market is down. Crude oil price too drive the stock market. However, we are seeing a over done in these market recently. USD is down too much which drive the stock and the commodities market up too high.(in my opinion) Thus we should see a correction soon. Rocktober is the beginning of the 4th Q and also the earning report of the 3rd Q, thus be cautious when trading. As I am typing these email, the USD is down again and we do not see a similar reaction on the stock market. Dow is in red now. This could mean that, it has been over done and it not as effective anymore or even a reversal is near.

From technical point of view, the indices have successfully go through the Head test in the head and shoulder pattern. However, a double top is near.My 4 years cycle have hint that a market drop is round the corner and my 5 weeks advance have predict that too. And what happen after the drop?? The market would rally 10% till the end of the year.
This is my own opinion only and do not use as an advise to execute any trade. My forecast can be totally wrong as past result do not represent future performance. Having said that, i have traded the market for 4 years and running.

MKT going up up n up

The market is going up. Let not doubt abt it and follow what the market tell us to do.

Mkt update

The market for the past couple of weeks have been up down up down. A flat top have set in most indices except STI, HSI.(A flat top produce market drop). In the previous post i mention about CRB index sky rocket. It is push by the sugar,coffee,orange juice,wheat,corn, soy bean,crude,gold,copper up and etc except oil and the meat. This week we see oil starting to rally. The USD is also kept down by the FED. A cheaper dollar will also make commodities and stock price to rally.

So what's up??
The market is always been prop up when the dollar is crush. The dollar has lost 10% of it value since June 2010.Imagine you have 10 USD in June and it actually worth 9 USD in Oct.The FED are the ones that control the dollar and they have a POMO programme. POMO = permanent open market operation. The operation come into the market every other day. The purpose of it is to make sure the market do not come down (prop up the market). Another factor is prop up he market is to keep the USD low. Obama has wanted to increase the export of the nation by 2 X. To achieve that, one of the ways is to keep the USD low.

However, a currency that keep inflate is not good for the economy for the long run either. So we shall see the development of the market as it unfold.

From Technical point of view, the market is really under some pressure to come down.But nothing is ever 100%.

market update

The US dollar is being hammer. Which make the US dollar cheaper. Mean stock will move higher.Commodities will also move higher. Also the CRB index has sky rocket, notice that gold, silver, copper, platinum,etc wheat, soy bean, coffee, sugar, orange juice, lumber all have move higher, which in turn drive CRB index higher. However, oil have not participate in the up run yet. The last time CRB index move to these level is in 2008 where oil hit 145 / barrel.

I expect the market to come down in Rocktober as my 4 yr cycle and advance warning indicator tell me so. I may be wrong.then after rocktober it will rocket upwards...abt 10 to 15%...

Investing in funds, stock, futures, forex , options get ready for the exciting move.
For investment link plan holder, please get your funds switch to more of equities.(depend on your risk appetite)

happy trading

Profit

Genting
I finally caught Genting on 13 Sept...The trading rule used is totally different.It response well to the break new high and buy rule.So i bought at 1.86 and sold it off on 21 Sept on 2.12...Profit sold

Cosco
15 Sept bought 1.69 still in position (break new high method)

So this are my trade ...very busy these 2 weeks...
Trading is a thinking business, the method i used in the past is not used here. Time change and method have to change.

Market outlook

Hey folk
been busy these weeks
my forecast is still the same as mention in previous posting. A drop will come in Rocktober...a rocking month.Indicators have signal that this would happen. It might not be. Nothing is 100%.
Then follow by a uptrend which will make the S&P500 index close at abt 1200 - 1250 by end of the year.Again no method of technique is 100%, so it might not happen.
If it blow off this head, the mkt is going north baby.

Those that hold position for quite sometime can consider liquid their position and re enter when after Rocktober.

Market up up up

The market is performing good.
But do remember to keep your greed check.
A trend is your friend but a stop is your best friend.
Keep your emotion out and put the stop in.Have a plan and the intention to trade the plan.
Never trade alone...trade with your friends or relative or whoever. discuss strategy.

Mkt update

Let me explain in details more on what i see in the market.The combination of different technical analysis to come to see a same picture.

On the chart is S&P500 daily bar. You can see a major head and shoulder (H&S) forming and there is H&S within H&S as seen with the red circle. Next there is a trendline that connecting the top and cut through the current price now. Also flat top produce market drop, now a flat top is formed.All these suggest that the market is going to come down.

However, if the market is able to breakout from the flat top, the trendline and most importantly the head (that circle in red)then a uptrend is happening.

I will update you guys on it. It is really exciting for me. The long term forecast still remain the same as stated in the previous posting

S&P500 prediction

There are books saying about the 7 years cycle which say that the market will rise for 7 years and go down for 7 years.
There are rumours saying about recession come every 10 years.
I spotted something pretty interesting quite long ago and wish to share that. It is the 4 years low or 4 years cycle.
Look at the S&P500 chart. Every 4 years it will put in a low. From (those in box)1986, 1990, 1994,1998,2002,2006, now 2010??
It may happen this time in Oct 2010.
Notice that everytime when it hit a low, the market will move up quite strongly.So we may expect a low in Oct 2010,then follow by a upward move. I think S&P500 will move up to 1200 to 1250 by end of this year.
As stock market are in sync, market like Singapore, Indonesia etc may have a similar effect too.

GIC IPO

GIC expected to be trading on OCT 15.

GIC plans to sell 95% of the shares to institutional investors, with the remainder allocated to retail investors in Singapore

Trading record from Jul till Sept

Trading record from Jul till Today (Sept) (excluding futures)

Total trade 17
Winner 12
Lose 5

S&P500 and STI

S&P 500 a flat top is formed.Flat top produce market drop. Let see tonight if they can break out.



A double top is forming.If the US market have breakthrough tonight then maybe it STI would pull through.

PROFIT, PRofit.profit..WOOW

30 Aug Midas long 0.88 sell 08 Sep 0.93 profit
23 Aug indoagri long 2.27 sell 07 Sep 2.38 profit
31 Aug Cosco long 1.58 sell 08 Sep 1.61 profit

All 3 position on profit ..wooow

Why Financial Planning Part 2

Financial planning include the whole range of things. Alot of Singaporeans only regards it to insurance. It address a whole range of issue that affect our life at every different stage.

For example, when we are young and we are studying, we move up from primary, secondary, high school then University.If your parents had a education plan when you are young, then most likely you will graduate without a debt.Alot of time, some people will think that is 20 years down the road before my child go to Uni.They dint want to do anything now.They think that is so far away and by that time then think about it.As time pass, they still spend on their necessity, holidays, buy new car, etc.Bingo, your child will graduate in debt.By the time they think let do something, is either too late or they still do not have the money to do something. So planning is important.
Is like you wont dont plan for a marriage. How to buy house, wedding ceremony cost, honey moon cost etc.Then from there you will save up and try to achieve your aim.

Next alot of people wish to make quick money. Yes me too. But where would it lead you.Tomorrow, 1 week later, 1 months time or 1 year time.Quick money (legal money) from the financial market is possible. I am a trader and i know how.But no trader in the world can promise you that I can sure make $1million in a few years time.Larry William ( a reowned and famous futures trader turn $10k to $1 Million in a year).But he cant promise that it can happen always. Also making quick money from the market need skills. The shorter the time you want to make money the more skill you need.If you have been spending about 20 to 30 hours a week, thinking, pondering and looking at charts, well is possible.There is no short cut.Is hard work and to be serious in trading is like a business. You need to have strategy.Spend time in it.You spend 100% of your time chances of reward will be 100%.You spend 50% then chances of reward will be 50%.

So if you dont have skills and cant afford the time are you not going to do anything?You still need to plan for your retirement.Imagine you want to retire and you have not enough money, are you going to work at MacDonald?Or forgo your dreams of doing something and short change your life?Why not do something about it now.Then you will have ease of mind in retirement.Imagine you know that when age of 60 you would have x amount there ready for use.Would you feel more secure?Worst your children have to pay for your retirement or medical bill at that time.Then they may be in debt with their school loans. This make them harder to get marry, buy a house and carry on their own dream. Like i say in the previous posting, it is a vicious cycle.It will pass down ward to next generation.

Financial planning is in general the allocation or management of your income, to make them more efficient and to give your certain assurance in different stage of life or a life time.Unless you dont care about your life, then dont do financial planning.There are many components into it too. It not really about products.If look too much into products, I am sorry you are a short term viewer.Is about the planning, which even go into what stocks, ETF, funds etc to invest.How different product can work better, function better and compliment each other.How investment or protection can help in your retirement planning etc.

So think about it and act on it.Is about your life.

Why financial planning

The 1st block on the top is an individual life that a person have to encounter.
The investment portfolio is a block that generate active or passive income through out the life time of an individual.
The other 2 blocks show the liabilities/asset that a person most likely to encounter.

The 1st block is a sure thing in life. People will die and may get ill or disable. People would retire at some point of time. They also need education in their early stage of the life time or paying for their kids education. These are the must. The 1st block generally is a block that would cost a hugh amount for a person life time.
What to protect against?
Protection is the risk managment against death, disability and critical illness.
For death and disability
Have amount set aside for funeral cost, debts, expenses needed for individual and family member. In this way, family members would not have addition burden or liabilities in the event when a member of the family is unable to be self sufficient.
For critical illness
Have amount set aside for ongoing treatment and lump sum medical cost.In this way. family members would not have additional burden or liabilities in the event when a member of the family is unable to be self sufficient and need constant expenses.

The other 2 blocks are the expenses that would add burden/value-add the cash planning of the 1st block.These block also cost hugh amount to a person lifetime.The different is the 1st block is a sure to happen to an individual while the other 2 blocks are most likely to happen.

What make financial planning difficult is that all these block may not be mutually exclusive.They can happen together.This make the situation complicated and an individual to lose focus on the planning. Thus early planning give one the allowance to pre-empt, make adjustment and have adequate resources to tackle the issues.

So whatever happen to an individual will also cause the spouse, parents, next generation to be affected. If no proper planning is done, this would be a vicious cycle that keep rolling down from generation to generation.If a proper planning is done, the benefit would pass down from generation to generation too. Unless some event occur that would change the life. For eg, strike a big lottery ticket, lost all retirement money on casino, great entrepreneur is born, etc

one sad experience

I had some very sad experience with some of the people i met. Let just share 1 of them where he allow me to share

1)Freshly grad as a 1st class honour, everything is going for him. He got a good job and he have plans to settle down with his girlfriend that have been dated for a long time. As usual, I met him do a presentation on what I do, he know the importance of protection but not his priority at that time. He thought he is young and healthy.So he decided to take up the policy in Dec with me. However, just last week, he called me and ask me whether he can buy it right now. I say of course, it is better to buy 3 years early than 3 days too late. Then i ask him why you change your mind. He told me, he went for a check up by his company and have some bad news on his heart.He ask if he can be cover under that. Unfortunately, after the underwriting, he cant be cover if he have any illness related to his current condition.

He was soooo down. 25 year old 1st class honors and working in a prestige company and something happen to him.He ask my advise on what to do next.

Well, i tell him that u still carry on with your planning for protection and investment. Do not bcos your existing condition is not cover then all protection planning is neglected. This is a single point of failure assumption.Get protection to cover for all others things. So if those other things happen you will be prepare to face the financial problem involve. At the same time, i advise that he have to save up himself to address to the medical bills of the disease he is suffering.Maybe get his girlfriend to save up for him too. Discuss with his girlfriend about these, so you guys have a common ground of when to get marry( do you need to delay), change of ideal honeymoon trip, and also wedding gift etc...

Pretty sad and disheartening, it is also quite detrimental to him and his close one. Things happen to him, but his close one have to suffer with him too. Sometime i wonder, did i do my job well by trying to convince him in the earlier time when i met him?If so and he decide to take up the policy later, then maybe i would feel better.

Some 95% of the people

I spoke to many people whom wanted to start trading. I find something. They are all very enthu abt trading.Cos they wanna mk money. That a good reason to trade... but not over enthu.1st know the risk then the reward.If you can take the risk then the reward is yours.
Worst thing i found out, they allocate some cash for investing. None for protection.

When ask what if you lost all the cash u allocate for investing. They reply, we are working ...so can earn back the money and invest again....I love this answer man...This are the people that belong to the 95% and i really hope i know what they trade for everything...bcos is so easy for me to guess their thinking and more easy for the big players.These people are the one that constantly providing cash into the market. They work hard and donate them to thse smart mkt player...it is like they are working for the market...hahaha

So plssss....dont do such things.They are basing on hope and luck analysis. They are blinded by the reward of the market and risk to them is not significant.I rather these people put cash onto protection and at least they can get back cash value (which have higher interest than fix D and bank deposit) when old than donating their hard earn money to the market.

For investing, they do not have a plan. They do not have a protection plan and over all plan on their capital for investment.This applies to the same to their life.Which mean their life can be like their investment capital, vapourise, eat up by others.Worst thing they dont seem to mind.To be frank, these are the people that is needed by the financial market bcos they will provide cash for winner.These loser will earn money and get back again.It a vicious cycle. And i would like to say, it the same for life.No protection, no plan for life. When something strike you, you are going to pull your family member into the mess. Pulling down all their financial ability.Then they have to work harder to fill the gap for the next few years.If you have no plan at all, then basically you dont know where you are heading.Maybe working for life, cant retire,furthest country visited is Thailand,paying house loan for life, your next generation is going to be like that too, etc

If financial planning ( not just about protection) is not important, than investing is bound to fail, Even i give you a million, without planning that million is nothing.Nobody plan to fail, but if you dont plan you will fail.And that is your life that you are failing.

Think thru, calculate, chart out, define your financial objective, talk more about money with people,plan and execute...

Investing psychology

For all beginner that are doing trading and investing in the stock, forex or futures or options, there is one thing that you sure have to find out yourself: that is who you are and what type of trader or investor you are.Nobody can help you on that, you have to find out yourself.

Well first of all, if you invest or trade and find yourself waking up alot of time in the middle of the night thinking how the Dow is doing then you are taking too much risk.You cant concentrate on your work, you get easily agitated etc. This are clear sign you are taking too much risk.

However, if you find yourself able to sleep totally and the next morning you wake up and still do the same thing without even a thought about what happen mean you are either ignorant or too comfortable.For example, the stock has drop too much and you decide to tell yourself let just write off this. This is not healthy.

If you are serious enough, what you will be thinking of when you wake up is what to do? How doest the market match with the research that you made yesterday night?What to buy what to sell?How the market going to be like today?Does it coincide with the big picture?etc.Like i say many time, it is a thinking business.It is never easy money. Is just that alot of people assume it is easy money that why only 5% of the people make money and 95% lost money. And the 5% earn all the 95% people money.That how the game work.

The worst mistake and most common mistake that most people commit is that their investment horizon change when they invest.
For eg: Ah huat see Genting is moving up so fast.But he know that the market as a whole is going down, so he thght that he would give it a miss.Then he heard his friend, uncle, auntie earn money from Genting.
He observe the 2nd day hoping that Genting would come down alittle then he would buy. It dint, it went up higher.
So he decided that it been up so furiously for 2 days it wont go up anymore. He is firm that he would not buy.
On Third day, it went up very fast. He cant resist and he buy Genting at 1.68.He thought that he can make a killing within the intra day. Immediately the stock plunge. Down $0.16. He is panic.
But he is determine that the stock will go up.He change his investment period to the next day.Genting dint went up, the third day too. The fourth and the fifth day too dint went up.
His investment timeframe from intraday is prolong to 5 days.
Fortunately 11 days later, Genting is alive again.It went up to 1.78 today.Then now he face a dilemma to sell or not to sell. If it go up and i sell, how?Eventually he sold it. Making a handsome $0.10 profit.He thought that this way could let him make money.So he use the same way to buy other stocks.Guess what happen to him at the end.

If you make money and you dont know why, you have to be cautious.There is no free lunch and there is no free money.It can be just a beginner luck.Ah Huat uses hope and luck analysis and he is too emotion driven.He cant resist the temptation that people make money and he dint, and he think that this way is correct and he wish to repeat this way of making money again. Have a plan and have the intention to follow the plan while investing. If you say, is like that you cant control your emotion when investing, please try to do so. If not, you must as well donate money to the charity.And what make you so determine that the market will go up. Are you controlling??And once you buy a stock from the market you totally lost control. What you can do is watch, sell, or buy more and of course ignore.

Investing in any form of financial market is risky. It can lead to substantial financial loses. Have a risk capital ready for investing. Which mean to say those cash set aside for investing are cash that need not use to pay bills.They are excess cash. This should not even affect your saving.You must prepare to lose all the cash use for investing.

bond & stock and my position, Genting and mkt update

Bond down stock up...this relationship is presented again over in today market.

i was too busy to really update what my position i have for the laast wk n this wk as of now:
here we go
30 Aug Midas long 0.88
23 Aug indoagri long 2.27 ( i made a mistake to take the trade the last time,tt one that i cut lost in 17 aug, it is pure fully human error)
31 Aug Cosco long1.58

Genting i dint buy, is a powerful stock once again. up 0.11 cent today. Congrate to anyone that have it..wooow...

Market update!!!
The market is like a one day up one day down now. Today the market give a strong up move which if it continue will mean a temporary uptrend.This may sustain for the next 5 weeks. This is the 15 week of the 17 week cycle. 17 week cycle is a reference is not 100% accurate and is an average. Bonds (30 yr Tbond) has drop pretty much today this reinforce that stock are moving up.

Cost of diversification in investing

In short term trading, the risk is the price fluctuation and the psychological effect of market participant on the prices.

In long term investing, the risk is the company bust and wind up business.
So in long term investing i also believe in diversification. Diversification comes with a cost. If you want to diverse the portfolio yourself, you need big big money, probably 500k for Singapore market. (What you mean by diverse in SG, our economy depend alot on others, so by buying the shares in singapore market alone with 500k is not really diverse. Bcos you are subjected to country risk)

You need to diverse in different region and sector. Woow mean need more than 500k to do so.....yes of course...

The cheaper alternative is investing in unit trust.Is like REIT, a collection of investment. You can tap on different region, sector, market. The fund manager bonus,reputation is peg to the fund price.

Of course there are cost involve. ETF have cost involve, Unit trust have cost involve. There is no free lunch and there is nothing that is free. Unless u can do research on your own on all the stocks that can make your portfolio really diverse and also unless you have that cash to buy all these, there may not be any cost. Most people wont have the expertise, time and resource to do that.Even for trading when you are working, pls really think of the physical constraint before start to trade. Can you check your stock in a meeting? Can you check your stock when on site, in a lab?pls consider it carefully, it can be done but make sure you still do your job properly.

If you cant and you need to rely on some expert to invest for you there is a cost.For any outsourcing, you need a cost. That the fact of life. We are not expert in all things. A doctor cant be an expert in wafer fabrication. A wafer fabrication engineer cant be the best chef. A chef cant be the best waiter.Etc Etc.If you are so conscious of the cost, then you could never be able to reach another height or achieve your goals.

Some things about REIT

What is REIT?? Real Estate Investment Trust is the name.

For most people, investing in real estate, is financially out of reach. But what if you could pool your resources with other small investors and invest in large-scale commercial real estate as a group?

REITs are corporations that own and manage a portfolio of real estate properties and mortgages. It is like Unit Trust or Mutual fund. This allow anyone to buy shares in a publicly traded REIT. With this, they offer the benefits of real estate ownership without the headaches or expense of being a landlord.In other words, it enable you to own real estate as part of your portfolio.

Investing in REITs also provides the important advantages of liquidity and diversity. Unlike actual real estate investing, these shares can be quickly and easily sold. And because you're investing in a portfolio of properties rather than a single building, it is diverse and you face less financial risk.

REIT distribute most of their taxable income to investors, the source of fund they get from is through external capital. REIT just like stock collect fund through IPO. These fund are used to buy, develop and manage real estate. (So is like a unit trust that does IPO) Income is generated through leasing , renting or selling properties. So when a REIT pay out dividend they are equally distributed among shareholder.

REITs can provide both current income and long-term appreciation.
How the REIT management and trustees are compensated will determine the REIT payout to investor. If compensation is based on the value of the REIT's assets, management is usually concentrating on investing in additional properties for capital appreciation. If the basis for determining compensation includes dividends or current earnings, the REIT's management may be motivated to increase dividend yield, possibly at the expense of long-term appreciation.

For REIT investing, it can provide a long term capital appreciation and good dividend payout. So please check on the past record of dividend payout (at least 5 yr ) but note that past performance is not a representative of future performance.Be wary of high yields. If there have been excessive capital gain distributions, this can be a sign that the income is coming from nonrecurring events and will not continue for long. Make sure the REIT is not selling off properties to provide income, because future rental income will be affected.

profit from emini s&p

Emini s&p500 cover at 1066

Some updates

Short on Emini S&P500 on 19 Aug 1074.25...current price 1056

Look at the bond price is going up...so the relationship is again proven.
Mkt weakness may continue for the nxt 2 weeks using the 17 week cycle

Exited straitasia today @2.13 profit from entery price of 2.05

exited yanlord yesterday @ 1.84 profit from entry price of 1.8

cut lost ezion yesterday 0.63 lost from 0.66

cut lost Noble 1.65 19 Aug lost from entry 1.66

Relationship between bond, S&P 500 and US dollar

This is the relationship between US dollar and bond


This is the relationship between S&P500 and bond

Regarding fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis is not jus knowing the PE ratio, EPS, ROI etc...This are important but the most important are still the company cashflow, income statment, balance sheet.A examination of 3,5,7,10 years of these data is necessary to make a sound investment decision.
Next understand the business of the company, for example one need to know the nature of the business, how easy is it for new player to enter the business, is the business easy to monopolies, how big is the company in the industry, what is the forecast for this industry??
Frankly i am not a fundamental guy, i am a technical trader.I am train in these aspect of fundamental analysis before but really it is not my cup of tea.Fundamental investing is really about investing the value of the company,investing in the business, something that you really want to own.The world most successful investor Warren Buffet use these approach.
Getting to know the cashflow,income statment, balance sheet is not difficult, understanding the business, the way to do the business is the most difficult thing to achieve. That why Warren Buffet say that diversification is for people who do not know what they are doing.Yes is true. Unless we can be like him whom understand the business, know how the business should be run and able to have coffee with the CEO, we still need to diverse in the long term investment.Put it another way, if we know the things like Warren Buffet then we dont have to diverse, work or worry anymore.\
So for average joe, investing in the long run still need diversification.

17 week cycle

I have notice most indices in the world obey a 17 weeks cycle. Which mean every 17th week a low will be found.The market do not 100% obey the cycle(if it is 100% then i would make the last trade in my life) however it give you an indication where it might head next.
Try to identify the cycle yourself, if you have any question can drop me an email.
Right now we are in the 13th week.There is 4 more weeks to complete the cycle.

Profit and Loses

Straitasia long 2.05 current price 2.13
yanlord long 1.8 current price 1.84
indoargi long 2.43 cut lost 2.32 on 17 Aug (lost)
ezion long 0.66 current price 0.64
Noble long 1.66 current price 1.65

Losses

Cut lost indoagri 2.32 today (Lose)

Noble long 1.66

Genting very hot stock, lesson from it

Today genting make the top volume again.nice up move when the market start and then when it break it support for the day it goes down and down...
Lesson learn from it, never chase a stock.I miss genting last fri.The Gap up and the nice move up which close the high of the day is fantastic. But once you miss it dont chase.Congrate to investor that buy before last Friday. You really catch a nice up move.
Yesterday it gap up again and move higher, (i dint chase the stock) some people went in yesterday. It is already very risky as you are chasing and the stock went up. Some people that second think the market dint went in yesterday, they thought that the up move on last friday is enough so they observe the market to see if there is another up move on Monday. Indeed it happen. So they went in today, hoping it will move much higher.Well it did move higher on the 1st 35 min of the opening, hit 1.68 for awhile and there it goes. 1.68 is history.

1.63 - 1.64 is the support of today...once it break it goes down n down.The immediate support which is also a very weak support now is at 1.5.
The W% is going down and is below -25. However the price pattern have not break 1.5 yet.Perhaps tomorrow it may gap down and move up and then down again.

Lesson learn is not to chase a stock.If it move up and you miss it so be it. The market is always there.There are plenty of opportunity if you have the cash.Dont because your neighbour, friends, relative or whoever earn money from this stock and you are greedy and went to chase the stock.It will hurt you.

Inverted Head and Shoulder in Mar 2009

S&P 500 again...Inverted head and shoulder.Inverted H&S mean it has bottom, H&S mean it has topped

Head and shoulder formation let look at the histoy

This the the S&P500 in 2007. The topping pattern has form with head and shoulder. You can also see many big and small head and shoulder formed.

Let look at the king of the market

LEt take a look at the King of the market. Dow Jones Transport
Over here i am going to introduce bull flag and bear flag. See in the chart how it work:



As you can see now we are in the bear flag.So a drop has happened

Hit and Misses with star of today

Genting is a high flyer today....woow..nice gap up and move to the high of the day.Those who hold the stocks congrate!!!!

Shorted Emini S&P500 1116.25 9 Aug
exited Emini S&P500 1087.75 13 Aug

Stock that i have missed
Cosco long 1.59 on 12 Aug
Yangzijiang long 1.46 on 12 Aug

Upcoming
NOL long 2
Noble long 1.66
Midas long 0.94
Ezra long 1.91
CSE global long 0.95
Rotary long 0.96
Kepcorp long 9.02
Capland long 4.04

Stock entry today
Straitasia long 2.05
yanlord long 1.8
indoargi long 2.43
ezion long 0.66

Seems like the drop has been cushion.There are signal that is moving the other way now.But is still early to tell if it will last for long.Right now the US indices are in the Green except NASDAQ.

Mkt drop

As spoken yesterday, flat top of the market produce drop. The US indices are down currently and in asia japan is down 2.7%,. HSI is down 0.83% and STI is down 1.17%.
The trading method of mine also tell me that a drop is coming.that why i have no holding as of now except shorting of emini S&P 500 @ 1116.25.

Those who have shorted on SG stock earlier congrate too. i miss this boat cos i am too busy with my work.
is ok...never chase the market.if you miss it, is ok. the next wave will come again. if u chase the market and u lose $$$ then that it, you may not be able to come back to the market again.

FED meeting, 2.15am release of policy statment

Flat top on indices mean gng down

Hi
Let me share on alittle observation on the indices...

look at dow jones, S&p500, Nasdaq they all have a similar pattern where they will move up and hit certain resistance. This will prevent the price from moving higher and form a flat top. This flat top will produce mkt drop. Let take a look at S&p500



From here u see, flat top will make mkt drop...so this time round there is a flat top, which may produce a mkt drop.
As i am talking here, the dow is down 82, Nasdaq down 31, S&P500 down 11

Profit sold

Emini
Sept 2010 Emini S&P500 long @ 1095.00 6 aug sold 1112

Rich get richer and poor get poorer

I am pondering about the objection my client gave me on insurance and thinking about them.
The fact is in this world the richer get richer and the poorer get poorer. I found out some reasons why.

1)Strangly, the people that needed insurance the most are the people that are not that rich. Cos u transfer the risk to insurer, and something happen to u and u dont hav to pay the full amount. This will somehow retain the financial status of these people. But most of them dont think it is important. U might argue, cos they no money, have things to commit in and not enough cash.My question is you told me you wanna be rich or live better, this is your priority but you are not acting towards it. people tend to look at the immediate stuff and those distracting and far away they chuck it aside.
Next they tell me that they need to retire with X amount of money each month when they reach certain age. But when doing the retirement planning, they start to discount themselves.Shortchanging themselves. pretty sad. Yes investment is non gurantee for retirment planning, but if it is gurantee do u think i will still be working and do u think u still need to work. If you never start this number for retirment planning is just a dream, and is this the way you wanna led ur life. playing with hopes and luck.

2) The rich know that it is important and they really transfer the risk to insurer. They want to make sure they need not pay for things when soemthing happen to them and they can start off from where they left off.So they get richer after tt.They think long term and want to live better than now in the long run.

I will always thank my client for the business they gave me and also a hand shake with client when they buy something. But this is not to thank them, but congrate them that they made a move that will benefit themselves.It is not the plan they are buying, it is the life they are choosing. Product are just commodities, can be replace anytime, but the advise from the advisor is the key thing. Bcos life changes from time to time. It is not a fact like science, it is an assumption and will change constantly. So an advisor is key. It is not what you have that matter, it is what u do to what u have that matter.

Genting

hi
As in the earlier post in jul, i was saying that genting will hit abt 1.3. that the ressitance for that.it hit and fell today.
I heard alot of people buying genting today @ 1.25 and 1.26. Well not splashing cold water, but prepare to cut lost.

Profit and losses

Emini
Sept 2010 Emini S&P500 long @ 1095.00 23 jul currently price 1121

Stock
CSE global long @ 0.88 5 jul current price 0.99
indoagri long @ 2.11 5 jul sold 2.34 3 aug (profit)
Cosco long @ 1.52 19 jul, Sold 1.64 3 aug(profit)

STI

STI weekly



STI weekly have shown a clear uptrend. but notice that the rate of change is getting smaller as it move up. it had hit the previous high in april and today the mkt slide alitte.

STI daily

Today STI is down abt 20 point from the opening, it have hit the previous high resistance in april and move down.It may stay up for the next few days

DOW JONES IND weekly chart


DOw is well supported as u can see in the chart there. and the weekly chart shows that it wanna break away upward. The W% have stay up.A new uptrend might be in the picture overcoming the previous high set in 30th april 2010.
However, if it cant move up higher then it will stay side ways for sometime.

Dow Jone IND daily


A slanted upward W is form here. The up day of yesterday is rather convincing. I expect today to be a inside bar day.

Trading your way

Hey folk

very interesting market movement thru last week till today...i will elaborate more on the nxt post...
i came across a fb posting by steve job on 2005 Standford uni commencement adrress...very inspirational very interesting here the link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UF8uR6Z6KLc

i met a person a few days back talking about trading. he is a beinger and wish to do trading. He went to courses and learn something and wish to do trading.
i told him very briefly there is no magic formula for trading and investment. Hardwork pay off. u put in 10 min a day u get tt result u put in ur life time u get a life time result. I dont think he got it.Anyway, i used to beleived in putting 10 min of ur time and u can make passive income...but tt is totally not true...until u skill of trading have reach the person whom u pay to teach u in course, u cant use 10 min everyday to make substantial money.u still need hard work.

Some of the things i do:
1)i went for courses, learn there methods, but u sure know somethg the trainer say...they say u hav to find a method tt suit u.this method suit me, i share with u people with a fee.but it may not suit u.
is like if brad pitt wore a coat and he look damn nice, u wear the same coat n u look oversize or somethg.So after learning keep exploring and find a method tt suit u, and constantly improve the method to suit with the situation.PLS PUT IN EFFORT, there is no such thing as easy cash in the market

2) i really went into detail of the technical indicators, The maths, the physical meaning behind them and interact with people tt use all this indicator. For eg MACD, some people use the crossover to buy and sell, some use the histogram, some use both. An indicator have different interpretation.each interpretation get u different result. Learn them, internalize them before really using it.

3)Technical indicator tell u the technical point of view, to be more precise u need to know the psychological side where the price action comes in. The price action is infact the most important thg. learn them thoroughly, do deep into it.

With the technical and psychological aspect, my method currently can get an accuracy rate of 65% to 90%. Some stocks response to my method is 100%( i m surprise too).

Remember there is no easy way out in investing or trading.i took 3 years, to learn all this and i still learning. i spend on average 20 to 30 hr a week to look into these. ( i m not a very clever person, maybe u r and u might tk lesser time)

Land Banking

Hey folk

This few weeks there are many things about land banking going on. Alot of history of scam, cheat, and the company investing in land that never exist at all.
So what is land banking??
The company got fund from investor to acquire land. This land are usually raw land, mean either a big field, with tree, or a desert, it is just raw. Then blue print will be put on it and upon approval, they sell them to developer for $$$ and this is how money is made. (in short)
Well lots of complication, i think in term of conflict where the company actually invested in land that cant be develop, MAS cant step in to the picture, because is not under the legislation here. Investing in something you cant see physically require one to believe in the company and the land banker.Cos u can never check online to see whether this land exist or not...cos is a raw land and there is no record in the raw land, no name for it.
I am an investor with Walton a land banking company. They are pretty good. I would not emphasis here. If interested pls contact me @ 98340329 i can introduce my land banker whom we have become very good friends too. Walton have a track record of 30 yr and PWC did audit for them, thier return is abt 28% per yr.
Recently Temasek also acquire land in Mexico, they are in the business of land banking. which mean by default all Singaporean have a land banking portfolio with them....:)This is from today newspaper 28 Jul 2010...they aquire 272 Mil land banking venture in Mexico.
So dont be afraid of landbanking, yes there are lots of scam, but u hav to choose and pick the right company and right advisor to service you, like financial advisor too.

What new here??

Emini S&P 500 still in the trade

just to update what i did the past few days

Indoagri still in the trade current price 2.35, bought 2.11 on 5 jul
CSE Global still in the trade current price 0.95, bought 0.88

New counter
Long Cosco 19 jul @ 1.52

Emini

Was too busy this week to update any posting ...but i never miss the Emini S&P trade...More updates will come soon
Sept 2010 Emini S&P500 enter @ 1095.00 23 jul

Genting moving up??

Genting


A nice consolidation after a up trend, and a specialist trap was setup early last week.But no entry signal yet... so be patient.

Mkt drop but I still have holding that are in profit

I am still holding the below stock as it have not hit the signal to sell

Indoagri
CSE global

I cant pin point the highest point to take profit, I cant pin point the Lowest point to buy. If anyone can pls teach me. With what i have can make profit and have quite a good track records.
Despite the US came coming down last friday, Indoagri remain strong. How do I know?? I dont know. The technical analysis actually tell me so.

Always let ur loses be small and profit to run

Methods of trading

There are many methods to trade. Find one that suit yourself that the most important.Even if you learn a method, make sure you internalise it before starting to trade.All the rules and way to enter and exit must be like your own skin before starting to trade.

Trading is not easy, you need alot of hardwork. if you think that this is a business where you can earn easy money then you are in the wrong business. Trading paint a very easy to earn money image, but it is never easy. You need alot of hard work, as in real hard work.You need to understand the market, the methods of trading, the rules, and why are they like that.Also the psychology side of trading.if it is a easy to earn money business then it wont be the case of 5% of people win money and 95% lose money.
And bcos alot of people think it is easy that why 5% of people win the 95% people's money.

Remember hard work is needed. paper trade for sometime before entering the market.

Worst thing of a trader

The worst thing for a trader is to be ill discipline. A trader must have a plan and the intention to follow the plan. When the cut lost price is hit do not even hesitate to cut lost. What if the price hit the cut lost price and bound all the way up is always the question people think about...but what if the price hit and continue to go down. You cant trade base on hope or luck, THIS IS NOT GAMBLING!!!!!YOU HAVE TO PUT ALL THE ODDS TO YOUR SIDE BEFORE YOU DECIDE ON A TRADE!!

There is nothing as give the stock some chance to move, bcos stock never give you chance. And who are you to give them chance?? DO YOU HAVE AT LEAST 1 MILLION BUCK ready to go into that particular counter???ARE YOU IN CONTROL OF THE MOVEMENT??If not pls play by the rule.

Just imagine you are a casino, you have all the odds on your side. As long as the market is there you win. But if you are the person going into casino, then is a different ball game altogether, you are bound to lose.

Trading record

Cut lost
Noble cut lost 1.67
Straitasia cut lost 1.94 on 15th

Profit sold
ezion 0.68 on 16th
ezra 1.87 on 15th
Kepcorp 8.82 on 15th
cosco 1.52 on 15th

Current holding
CSE global
Indoagri


Trade miss
I miss the Emini S&P 500 last fri as i was out... omg

Let take a look at some chart

MSCI Singapore


Exhaustion gap on the 14th, short MSCI at 348.5

STI



STI too have similar pattern

HSI



HSI have already break down from the price action.

DOW



A long bar down

A buy = a sell...if you buy who sell?that is how i know shorting can take place despite alot of people are buying
I dont favour any trend, any trend that help me make money that will be my friend. The trend is your friend, dont have to be loyal to bull or bear. Just need to follow whoever that lead the way.

I am a technical trader

I am a technical trader. I use mainly W%, price action and chart pattern to trade.
MACD at time will be used. I too use Adv/Dec, ROC to determine trade.

Price action is basically represent the psychology side of the trade, while indicators like W%, RSI etc represent the technical side of the trade. So by using this 2 different approach to look at the entry and sell price is quite accurate. I find using W% and RSI to predict the trend of the market movement is not that accurate as these indicators uses price to predict price.

If trading futures, pls also consider using COT. This is the fundamental of the contract.

if interested to know more pls contact me, my email is leow_yan_xiang@hotmail.com

Profit sold

Sold NOL @ 2
Sold midas @ 0.93

Both sold on PROFIT

Dow Jones Industries

Look at Dow...a downtrend. The index is going through a shoulder test.

STI

Let have a look at STI. There is a possible head and shoulder forming. The right shoulder is forming soon or may not formed. But the rate of change of prices are going down

Market is waiting for direction

Earning season

July 12 After Market ALCOA Inc (AA)
July 13 After Market Intel Corporation (INTC)
July 15 Before Market Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)
July 15 After Market Google (GOOG)
July 15 06:30 am ET JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
July 16 Before Market Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
July 16 Before Market Citigroup Inc. (C)
July 16 Before Market General Electric (GE)

Announcement
Jul 14 2:00 PM Minutes of FOMC Meeting

Comment on the previous post

The previous post on the comparison is abit too small...
Jus to highlight the difference in ILP and Traditional and term plan.
But as i say again, all product have it purpose.So what you need is a better gauge than focusing on the advantages and disadvantages

ILP VS traditional and term

Short term trading is safer??

No is never true that is safer. Market in short term have lots of fluctuation. You need more time and effort and skills to do well in short term trading. PS I am a short term trader, and i know is not that straight forward...

Usually technical analysis come into play when trading short term. Also your psychological (mindset need to be strong and tuned).To talk about short term trading, it will take days.Bcos there are too many things involve. Let me just briefly introduce some facts and touch on them again.
some of the things to consider:

1 selection of stocks, futures, currency pair, commodities etc
2 timing,
3 management of the prediction
4 capital management
5 Cut lost price and entry price

Always have a plan when trading and have the discipline to follow the plan. Alot of people tend to hope that the things they buy will go their way. This is hope analysis and luck analysis.How many times you bet on 4D, u win?? This is like betting on your life without protection for critical illness. Cos I am young n have healthy lifestyle, I wont get critical illness lar.But statistic show that alot of people got it, so are you still using hope and luck analysis for trading??

Some fact of the market:
5% winner and 95% loser in the market.This is statistic figure. The 5% win the money of the 95% of the participant of the market. Which side you want to be??So trade with a plan and follow the plan.

Some basic of the market:
1 buy = 1 sell ( mean if u sell there is someone buying)
if u win money mean someone lost money
the participants of the market are the very rich, institution, and small player
we are small player, and our biggest enemy is institution.
institution are the one that provide liquid to the market

will talk more about short term trading the next time... Spain or Holland??

Insurance product..what are they for??

There are term, traditional, investment link product(ILP)

As mention before all product exist for a purpose. We cant say that which product is good and which is not. Durian is my favourite fruit but my dear brother hate it sooo much. my brother love to eat things that are plain, less favour, but for me i love strong favour food. So even in a family, brothers have different taste, thus product too have their different purpose.

Term insurance
premium usually low, lower admin charges, protection of individual for a period of time eg 40 years. No money to get back. Mean after 40 yr nothing happen to you, no cash will be given back.

ILP
premium higher than term, higher admin charges, is a protection plan with investment element, Guaranteed sum assured upon death, critical illness, and disable, have cash value thus able to cash out money. protection till specific time eg for death and critical illness is 99 yr and disability is 65 yr.

Traditional
premium higher than term, protection till specific time eg for death and critical illness is 99 yr and disability is 65 yr,Guaranteed sum assured upon death, critical illness, and disable, cant cash out money unless surrender policy.

all this plan are for different people with different needs.Eg if an old lady have got no coverage and is has little savings and income, is good that she take up a term plan cos is cheaper and she will still get herself covered. If a man that wish to have protection but is so afraid of investing, then a traditional plan is good for him, if a young man that wish to venture and wants to get some cash when he is in the middle age, then a ILP is good.

What about ETF and unit trust

ETF
eg SPDR s&p 500, STI ETF etc
they are exchange traded fund. You need to pay a management fee to them yearly. It moves like the market. so one can expect a growth of 8 to 12 % per annum over a long term period.

Unit trust
Is a collection of investment and channel these investment into different stocks in different countries. It is like a portfolio that one do it themselves, but this is done by entrusting the job of research and investing to fund manager. The fund manager bonus and reputation is peg to the fund performance. For this one have to pay management fee too on yearly basis.the growth is really depending on the fund performance ,some can grow 300% or more, some even negative growth.This also allow dollar cost averaging to be done.

Well all instrument are for a purpose, one should know what is their needs before invest.find out what your lifestyle you have and what you want in life before deciding. Eg if you are always busy at work then building a portfolio urself may not be suitable. These are only a few investing instrument, there are plenty more out there.

How to invest long term

I talk abt stocks, unit trust, ETF(exchange traded fund) the previous post.
let talk about how to eliminate the value, countries and sector specific risk.
Answer: Diverse and dollar cost averaging.
Diverse
Invest in different sector and countries, which will make the non systematic risk tend to 0. It will cushion the drop of the portfolio in a crisis as the portfolio involve many different good stocks. However it also will slow down the growth of the portfolio too.( there is no perfect, if u wan a quad core processor it is sure more expensive than a pentium 3 processor) everything have its price.
Dollar cost averaging
Invest in a regular basis. It more applicable for unit trust or ILP(if u consider the investment element). As an equal dollar is invested regularly, when the units price is high, one buy less unit, if the unit price is low one buy more unit.thus could average out the unit price to be lower.

Now on:
Stocks
identify the business and invest into different sectors. So eg if a H1N1 is here, the airline industry is hit but the pharmaceutic industry is going up. invest the value of the stocks, dont find the cheapest stock, usually expensive stocks do have a reason and the reason is of it value.Identify the market leader. There is a research done on how many stocks will be sufficient to diverse the portfolio which mean non systematic risk tend to 0, as non systematic risk has a exponential negative. 70 stocks atleast to bring the non systematic risk to 0. and 70 different correlation stock.
Which mean u need quite alot of money to diverse the portfolio urself. nonetheless i hope individual still invest in stocks themselve. Pls do not hearsay and buy stocks. Do research. if newspaper and analysis on TV are so accurate, why analyt still working as analyt, why dont they jus quit their job and invest all thier asset in the stock.
So check on what the company do, the past financial performance (at least 3 yrs), the competitors, the ease of new comer to enter the business, the management of the company, the market capitalisation etc...Pls do not be lazy when investing stock yourself.
next post will talk abt ETF and unit trust