Saturday, October 31, 2015

Nice up run


Hey Folk


Read this article, Prime Minister said to prepare for slowdown in the economy. I consider this ‘insider information’. They have way ahead information than we have. So embrace, tighten your belt. Sometimes it maybe way ahead of what is actually going to happen. But it is very useful information.


Fed meeting ended on 28 Oct Wed. Read what they say. No rate raise yet. In my previous entries I had mention that no rate raise so fast. GDP 3rd Qtr in the US missed forecast, pending home sales dropped too. Will they rise rate in December? Let see the inflation rate.

Next let go into a COT chart so maybe we will be in sync

This is a weekly COT chart VS weekly Oil price
Red is the commercial aka the Big Boys. Blue is the funds. Green are the retail traders. Weekly price of oil is in black.
In 2011:
The commercial build up their long position about since the second quarter of 2011, buying when the oil price dip. Oil price went up again in about the second quarter of 2012,
Notice that the small speculator or retail are extreme seller when the price are low and extreme buyer when the price peaked.
In 2013:
Somewhat the same happen in second quarter of 2013, commercial max buyer and retailer max seller, and the price went up.
In 2014:
Notice in start of 2014, the commercial are shorting, they are shorting it for about 6 months, before the price of oil came off and stay down for the next one year.
At the same time, the small speculator or the retail in green are at extreme buying at the start of 2014, oil price went up abit and the retail sold. Then they are back to extreme buying again when the oil price is peaking while the commercial still are at extreme selling.
Now
Commercial are extreme seller, however the retail are selling into it as well. So there is not a ideal setup on the COT. We see price of oil rally on Wednesday night.
Positions
As the COT suggest from last week post, I am still short on EurUsd and took a good profit. This week COT suggest a good short setup for Gold. I am in too. I also still hold long position in the S&P500 and took profit. We are still in a downtrend in the stock market. On Friday it had a outside bar that close negative. This can’t confirm anything yet. Let wait and see.
Singapore stock wise, start to look at REITS. Not to buy but to short sell. Capital commercial trust, Suntec, Cambridge are in my list.
cheer