Congrat to those who short oil last nite.
The market is weak. It has difficulty moving higher.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Monday, October 11, 2010
Oil, Stock
My technical analysis tell me that crude oil is going to fall and stock as well.
Stock market will fall to end of Oct. So be long on end of Oct. It may move up all the way to next yr May. Not continuously as in day after day going up ...but it will move up till May 2011.
Stock market will fall to end of Oct. So be long on end of Oct. It may move up all the way to next yr May. Not continuously as in day after day going up ...but it will move up till May 2011.
Friday, October 8, 2010
Thursday, October 7, 2010
GLD
Hey Folk
As i send out my email to all you people out there. As i have said that USD down is over done, look at the gold price...it drop by 15 bucks a 1% drop
As i send out my email to all you people out there. As i have said that USD down is over done, look at the gold price...it drop by 15 bucks a 1% drop
What is happening in the market place
Global
The 1st half of the year, we witness EU region is hit badly by what could happen to Greece. and some of the European countries. This hit hard on Euro currency. On 2nd half of the year, these news disappear. Then the US will be introducing a series of stimulus measure to boost their employment rate and President Obama have also wanted to increase the export of US by 2X the current level. Obama have pull out troops from Iraq which also gain alot of support from his people.
In order to capture the votes of the unemployment, Obama and the Democratic Party now have to blame the cheap RMB for the US high unemployment.
RMB will become the long term political tussle between China and the US. However the actual fact is that when US exerted pressure on the issue, RMB would appreciate to record high, amd when US relented, RMB would weaken. China the number 2 economy in the world have bought USD 900 Billion of T bond from the US. In the effort of re-valute their portfolio, China have also buy more into Euro and Yen in their foreign reserve and sell USD. So that if the USD devalue against the RMB, China would not suffer a great lose.
Currency
USD have been depreciating as much as 10% since Jun 10. Imagine you have a 10 USD with you in Jun and right now it only worth 9 USD. Conversely, it is when the USD go weak that the commodities and the stock market went up. It attract foreign investors to buy their currency and invest in the US. This also helps to boost the country export. As most commodities are deal in USD, a cheaper USD would mean buying more of the commodities and also mean the supplier have to increase the price of the commodities to earn the equivalent of what they earn when the USD is stronger. Having said so the USD will remain weak as stimulus measure will be introduce and the want to increase export in the US.
China economy is growing tremendously but they do have their structural problem within their country. Premier Wen Jia Bao have stated that China have 4 stimulus that are going in the country 1 Massive public spending, 2 Adjusting and upgrading of industrial structure, 3 Scientific and technology to fuel everlasting growth 4 Improved social safety net. These measures would further enhance the growth of China economy. However, RMB would not appreciate in value overnight or in any shortterm. RMB would appreciate in the long run. China will bear in mind hw the Japanese suffer since they let Yen appreciate and in the long run if China is willing, RMB denominated treasury bills will become an important reserve currency of all the countries in the world.
Commodities
The CRB index (commodities research bureau index) have move up quite alot and near to the pre crisis level. The last time the CRB index have a great move up to the level is when Oil or the Energies are involved. For the past few months, you observed that the energies have not really taken part in this up move yet. Those commodities that have the major up move are the metal like gold, silver,copper, platinum, palladium, the grains like wheat, soy bean, corn, the soft like sugar, coffee, orange juice. Energy have not taken part in this up move as of a few months back. Right now you are seeing crude oil moving up about 10% since the end of Sept. Commodities price have still many room to grow as the world economy is growing.
Stock markets
The market for the past 2 years is driven by the USD. When USD is down the market is up and when the USD is up the market is down. Crude oil price too drive the stock market. However, we are seeing a over done in these market recently. USD is down too much which drive the stock and the commodities market up too high.(in my opinion) Thus we should see a correction soon. Rocktober is the beginning of the 4th Q and also the earning report of the 3rd Q, thus be cautious when trading. As I am typing these email, the USD is down again and we do not see a similar reaction on the stock market. Dow is in red now. This could mean that, it has been over done and it not as effective anymore or even a reversal is near.
From technical point of view, the indices have successfully go through the Head test in the head and shoulder pattern. However, a double top is near.My 4 years cycle have hint that a market drop is round the corner and my 5 weeks advance have predict that too. And what happen after the drop?? The market would rally 10% till the end of the year.
This is my own opinion only and do not use as an advise to execute any trade. My forecast can be totally wrong as past result do not represent future performance. Having said that, i have traded the market for 4 years and running.
The 1st half of the year, we witness EU region is hit badly by what could happen to Greece. and some of the European countries. This hit hard on Euro currency. On 2nd half of the year, these news disappear. Then the US will be introducing a series of stimulus measure to boost their employment rate and President Obama have also wanted to increase the export of US by 2X the current level. Obama have pull out troops from Iraq which also gain alot of support from his people.
In order to capture the votes of the unemployment, Obama and the Democratic Party now have to blame the cheap RMB for the US high unemployment.
RMB will become the long term political tussle between China and the US. However the actual fact is that when US exerted pressure on the issue, RMB would appreciate to record high, amd when US relented, RMB would weaken. China the number 2 economy in the world have bought USD 900 Billion of T bond from the US. In the effort of re-valute their portfolio, China have also buy more into Euro and Yen in their foreign reserve and sell USD. So that if the USD devalue against the RMB, China would not suffer a great lose.
Currency
USD have been depreciating as much as 10% since Jun 10. Imagine you have a 10 USD with you in Jun and right now it only worth 9 USD. Conversely, it is when the USD go weak that the commodities and the stock market went up. It attract foreign investors to buy their currency and invest in the US. This also helps to boost the country export. As most commodities are deal in USD, a cheaper USD would mean buying more of the commodities and also mean the supplier have to increase the price of the commodities to earn the equivalent of what they earn when the USD is stronger. Having said so the USD will remain weak as stimulus measure will be introduce and the want to increase export in the US.
China economy is growing tremendously but they do have their structural problem within their country. Premier Wen Jia Bao have stated that China have 4 stimulus that are going in the country 1 Massive public spending, 2 Adjusting and upgrading of industrial structure, 3 Scientific and technology to fuel everlasting growth 4 Improved social safety net. These measures would further enhance the growth of China economy. However, RMB would not appreciate in value overnight or in any shortterm. RMB would appreciate in the long run. China will bear in mind hw the Japanese suffer since they let Yen appreciate and in the long run if China is willing, RMB denominated treasury bills will become an important reserve currency of all the countries in the world.
Commodities
The CRB index (commodities research bureau index) have move up quite alot and near to the pre crisis level. The last time the CRB index have a great move up to the level is when Oil or the Energies are involved. For the past few months, you observed that the energies have not really taken part in this up move yet. Those commodities that have the major up move are the metal like gold, silver,copper, platinum, palladium, the grains like wheat, soy bean, corn, the soft like sugar, coffee, orange juice. Energy have not taken part in this up move as of a few months back. Right now you are seeing crude oil moving up about 10% since the end of Sept. Commodities price have still many room to grow as the world economy is growing.
Stock markets
The market for the past 2 years is driven by the USD. When USD is down the market is up and when the USD is up the market is down. Crude oil price too drive the stock market. However, we are seeing a over done in these market recently. USD is down too much which drive the stock and the commodities market up too high.(in my opinion) Thus we should see a correction soon. Rocktober is the beginning of the 4th Q and also the earning report of the 3rd Q, thus be cautious when trading. As I am typing these email, the USD is down again and we do not see a similar reaction on the stock market. Dow is in red now. This could mean that, it has been over done and it not as effective anymore or even a reversal is near.
From technical point of view, the indices have successfully go through the Head test in the head and shoulder pattern. However, a double top is near.My 4 years cycle have hint that a market drop is round the corner and my 5 weeks advance have predict that too. And what happen after the drop?? The market would rally 10% till the end of the year.
This is my own opinion only and do not use as an advise to execute any trade. My forecast can be totally wrong as past result do not represent future performance. Having said that, i have traded the market for 4 years and running.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
MKT going up up n up
The market is going up. Let not doubt abt it and follow what the market tell us to do.
Mkt update
The market for the past couple of weeks have been up down up down. A flat top have set in most indices except STI, HSI.(A flat top produce market drop). In the previous post i mention about CRB index sky rocket. It is push by the sugar,coffee,orange juice,wheat,corn, soy bean,crude,gold,copper up and etc except oil and the meat. This week we see oil starting to rally. The USD is also kept down by the FED. A cheaper dollar will also make commodities and stock price to rally.
So what's up??
The market is always been prop up when the dollar is crush. The dollar has lost 10% of it value since June 2010.Imagine you have 10 USD in June and it actually worth 9 USD in Oct.The FED are the ones that control the dollar and they have a POMO programme. POMO = permanent open market operation. The operation come into the market every other day. The purpose of it is to make sure the market do not come down (prop up the market). Another factor is prop up he market is to keep the USD low. Obama has wanted to increase the export of the nation by 2 X. To achieve that, one of the ways is to keep the USD low.
However, a currency that keep inflate is not good for the economy for the long run either. So we shall see the development of the market as it unfold.
From Technical point of view, the market is really under some pressure to come down.But nothing is ever 100%.
So what's up??
The market is always been prop up when the dollar is crush. The dollar has lost 10% of it value since June 2010.Imagine you have 10 USD in June and it actually worth 9 USD in Oct.The FED are the ones that control the dollar and they have a POMO programme. POMO = permanent open market operation. The operation come into the market every other day. The purpose of it is to make sure the market do not come down (prop up the market). Another factor is prop up he market is to keep the USD low. Obama has wanted to increase the export of the nation by 2 X. To achieve that, one of the ways is to keep the USD low.
However, a currency that keep inflate is not good for the economy for the long run either. So we shall see the development of the market as it unfold.
From Technical point of view, the market is really under some pressure to come down.But nothing is ever 100%.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)