Weekly update15 Nov 2014 Crude oil

Hey Folk

Here we go again

Alot of report on crude oil this week. To me it is a political game as well as perhaps it is trying to reflect that fundamentally the economy is not doing well. 
Political is because of Russia and the Middle East. The other more worrying part is the fundamental of the economy, if oil price stay very low mean there is no demand. Inflation wont go up. QE and low interest rate environment will stay. Then soon deflation will set in. These are very bad for anything that exist.

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market, oil, Gbp, Yen
I am wrong on Euro
I did not go into Aud, Nzd, Cotton and Gold

current open position


Long stock market

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. On Friday again, it had a big  up day. Let see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue.

Stock - Current price is somehow resisted. It is still in a uptrend. So let see if there is a dips. If a dips happen, i would prefer to add more position on the long side. 

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed. The weakness of dollar on friday create a better setup for the other currency. Until the trend change i will stay short on these risk currency.

cheers folk

Currency sell down, Gold

Hey Folk

Here we go again

i would really try to do this on a weekly basis.

Currency have really sold down this week especially the Yen. Most have a up day on Friday. but the overall trend are still down.

Review from last week trades:

I am right on on all the trades Sell Yen, Eur, Nzd and Buy stock indices. Bingo!!!!!!

current open position

Long stock indices

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. After Friday big up day, gold may stage a rebound. Let see more closely the movement of this metal.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue.

Stock - Continue to move higher

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed.

Soft - Cotton maybe can be a good candidate to long. The trend is down.

cheers folk

This week look for

Sell 

Eur
Yen
Nzd

Buy 

Stock indices esp US indices

Alright Folk

After so many years, i decided to kick this thing back to life again.

It would not be a frequent update, it would be more of a weekly thing. On broader picture.

So.... here we go

Stock market

the whole world think the market is going to die, it the end of the world. there is ISIS, there is ebola, there is tension in Middle east, tension in Russia...blah blah blah

The market is not going down after so much episode.  My take is the market is still moving higher.

Gold

These precious metal may not be as precious. Yes it may have a bounce up before it really goes down again.

Dollar

Dollar will get stronger as compare to all the risk currency. Yen is going down, Euro as well.

Flat to downside

Hey folk

I think we are going to be flat to downside from now. My indicators are mix in equity indices.

No sign to long or short yet. But most probably a short signal is coming soon.

Cheers

Bias in the market.

Hey folk

Do you know that there are certain bias on days of the week, months and also first day of every month in the S&P500??

If you tabulate the data, to buy on the close of the last day of the month and sell on the close of the first day of the month, there are almost 60% you made money. Probably the 401K or pension funds entering the market at that point of time.

The prefer buy day at the open and hold to the close for the week are Monday, tuesday.

The rest sort it out yourself.

Performance of Some Indices

Show the performance of some of the indices performance from 2010 to 2011

Dow Jones Ind up 5.5%
NASDAQ Down 1.8%
S&P500 Flat

STI Down 17.5%
HSI Down 20%