Saturday, November 22, 2014

Weekly update 22 Nov Economy vs Stock Market

Hey Folk

Here we go again


The start of the week we saw the currency market not behaving as their norm. Stock market was sideways. 
There are many news coming out.
FOMC minutes, Draghi wish to say something and many more. Indeed, Draghi say it will do what it takes to lift inflation. Which mean more stimulus.
Japan has also said that they have slide into a recession, stimulus to continue and also early election.
Just yesterday, China have lower interest rate. And the world goes wild. It send many instrument like oil, gold and the stock markets all over to goes high.At press time as i am writing, europe market is up 2.5%.
Everywhere seems to have certain stimulus coming out of their bag now except the US. They are talking about increase rate.

I think the US are recovering. But it is recovering very slowly. When i said this, it is just talking about the economy and not the stock market. 
Are stock market and economy related??? They are, but to a certain extend. Stimulus in the economy because the economy is weak. It is like an artificial life support system. But stimulus will boost the stock market. 
See the QEs US had made, it created a rally never before in history. Thus i do think that there will be rally in all the stock market as well. Another thing to rise is the US dollar.
Ummmm wait, so economy is getting better? More jobs? Pay increase?? Nope i doubt that will happen.

Review from last week trades:

I am right on stock market. Profited some position as market rises. Entered long into S&P500 at 3 different price.
I am wrong on Gbp 
Nothing for Gold, oil and other currency

current open position

Long stock market

This coming week

Gold - The overall trend is down. Let see more closely the movement of this metal. It might change from downtrend to uptrend. My take is it will stage a rebound then come off and creating new lows again. But i am always wrong so take it with a pinch of salt.

Oil - Trend is down. The look of it is that the down move will continue.

Stock - Break up higher. Stay long. Buy on dips. No sign that the stock market is coming off yet.

Currency - Most of the currency like Eur. Gbp, Nzd, Aud, Yen are in a downtrend. i will be still be looking for the down side in all of them. Waiting for setup to formed. 

cheers folk