Hey folk
Welcome back or shall I say I think this way I can explain better and cover more markets rather than a lengthy whasapp or txt msg w/o picture. Many friends and clients are asking me to revive this blog, but lazy is the main reason that hinder me.
Let do a stock market focus only for this week. Here We Go.....
Market have fell on Thursday and Friday a total of 6.5%.
I was just telling my colleaque on Wednesday that the US market hover within a range of 2.6% up to down some big move might be coming. Then Thursday came and the selling set in.
The market have not seen a sell down of such magnitude for very long time. The last time is in Sept 2014. A healthy correction range from 5-10% drop by expert. A crash is 20%. So far, after Sept 2014 we are always in the drop range of 3-5% and recover immediately creating greater heights.
To me whatever it is, as long as it suit an individual investment/trading objective that will be good. I will congratulate people who short the market.
*Confession* i had place my very small short entry since Tuesday, it is triggered on Wednesday. I had long term long position as well, which i think will be stop out soon. So net net for this time round I think I lost.
Stock market
S&P Market have broke down a few support level. It might be heading next to 1970 then to 1830. The recent peak that we had is 2132 created in 20 Jul 2015. We can calculate where the 10% is and 20% is.
I do have a few fundamental indicators that tell if the market top or bottom. Right now 3 indicators are telling me the selling is going to continue. The other 5 are telling me that it is not the top yet.
These are fundamental data not technical charts, the fundamental are the ones that move the price but they are not timing indicators. They will tell where the big trend goes but little will they hint when the big trend will come.
Let me just name them:
1)Bond price
2)Bond yield curve
3)Commitment of trader report (COT)
4)Advance decline line
5)200 SMA (expert known as death cross)
6)Weekly Trend vs Weekly Range std dev
7)Semiconductor
8) Pivot point vs Advance COT
In 2007-08 crisis, all my fundamental indicators show that a top is in. Some of the indicators show 6 to 10 months in advance of the market crash. Even if you back test them for the past crisis eg dot com bubble, 1987 crash and etc its respond is 100%. As of current, the indicators tell me it is going into a correction, until then I would not be looking at changing fund or turning fully into shortng.
The other way to look at it is market is moved by price. Whatever or whoever say so ain't more right than the price. Price is always darn right and others can be always darn wrong.
So if you are uncomfortable in your long position or exposure to the stock market in your portfolio, please cut lost or change to other asset classes.
Some news
Alot of question is still with the FED to increase rate or not. They said that their target are approaching but not achieved. The criteria are inflation to be 2% for the long term and unemployment to be 5.1% and lesser for the long term.With weak oil price and weak USD now ( USD have weaken since beginning of the week) how can we achieve inflation??
China is a country that the economy and government are one. Which mean to say the government have the power to do anything to turn up or down the economy. They wished to control the export market in the world so they devalue their currency. These are small steps to take to tell Uncle Sam maybe is time you call me big brother. China move had made alot of Asian countries devalue our own currency as well to remain competitive.
So that that for now.
FYI, this blog is created many years ago when i am an amateur trader. Many years after, I still think I am amateur trader. So do follow with your own dis question. Moreover, many of the things I thought I had mention before in here are not repeated, for the new comers please bear with me for the jargon or the terms i used.
**Also whenever I had a title saying crash or topped, the hits is going to be sky high. Human are optimistic in nature but love pessimistic news. Weird right. **
Welcome back or shall I say I think this way I can explain better and cover more markets rather than a lengthy whasapp or txt msg w/o picture. Many friends and clients are asking me to revive this blog, but lazy is the main reason that hinder me.
Let do a stock market focus only for this week. Here We Go.....
Market have fell on Thursday and Friday a total of 6.5%.
I was just telling my colleaque on Wednesday that the US market hover within a range of 2.6% up to down some big move might be coming. Then Thursday came and the selling set in.
The market have not seen a sell down of such magnitude for very long time. The last time is in Sept 2014. A healthy correction range from 5-10% drop by expert. A crash is 20%. So far, after Sept 2014 we are always in the drop range of 3-5% and recover immediately creating greater heights.
To me whatever it is, as long as it suit an individual investment/trading objective that will be good. I will congratulate people who short the market.
*Confession* i had place my very small short entry since Tuesday, it is triggered on Wednesday. I had long term long position as well, which i think will be stop out soon. So net net for this time round I think I lost.
Stock market
S&P Market have broke down a few support level. It might be heading next to 1970 then to 1830. The recent peak that we had is 2132 created in 20 Jul 2015. We can calculate where the 10% is and 20% is.
I do have a few fundamental indicators that tell if the market top or bottom. Right now 3 indicators are telling me the selling is going to continue. The other 5 are telling me that it is not the top yet.
These are fundamental data not technical charts, the fundamental are the ones that move the price but they are not timing indicators. They will tell where the big trend goes but little will they hint when the big trend will come.
Let me just name them:
1)Bond price
2)Bond yield curve
3)Commitment of trader report (COT)
4)Advance decline line
5)200 SMA (expert known as death cross)
6)Weekly Trend vs Weekly Range std dev
7)Semiconductor
8) Pivot point vs Advance COT
In 2007-08 crisis, all my fundamental indicators show that a top is in. Some of the indicators show 6 to 10 months in advance of the market crash. Even if you back test them for the past crisis eg dot com bubble, 1987 crash and etc its respond is 100%. As of current, the indicators tell me it is going into a correction, until then I would not be looking at changing fund or turning fully into shortng.
The other way to look at it is market is moved by price. Whatever or whoever say so ain't more right than the price. Price is always darn right and others can be always darn wrong.
So if you are uncomfortable in your long position or exposure to the stock market in your portfolio, please cut lost or change to other asset classes.
Some news
Alot of question is still with the FED to increase rate or not. They said that their target are approaching but not achieved. The criteria are inflation to be 2% for the long term and unemployment to be 5.1% and lesser for the long term.With weak oil price and weak USD now ( USD have weaken since beginning of the week) how can we achieve inflation??
China is a country that the economy and government are one. Which mean to say the government have the power to do anything to turn up or down the economy. They wished to control the export market in the world so they devalue their currency. These are small steps to take to tell Uncle Sam maybe is time you call me big brother. China move had made alot of Asian countries devalue our own currency as well to remain competitive.
So that that for now.
FYI, this blog is created many years ago when i am an amateur trader. Many years after, I still think I am amateur trader. So do follow with your own dis question. Moreover, many of the things I thought I had mention before in here are not repeated, for the new comers please bear with me for the jargon or the terms i used.
**Also whenever I had a title saying crash or topped, the hits is going to be sky high. Human are optimistic in nature but love pessimistic news. Weird right. **
