Hey Folk
The market is indeed real choppy. It seems like everyone is
waiting for the talk by Fed chairwoman on Thursday morning Singapore time. She
said that they see rates rise by end of the year. We are left with Oct, Nov and
Dec for the year. As I said in the previous post, the anticipation will still
be in the market, which leads to uncertainty. We see more swings in the market
day to day, the range are wider than normal. Like I said we are in a downtrend
already since the week of 7 Sept 2015. However we are still bounded in a big
range from 2100 to 1830 which is about 270 points boundary in the S&P500.
You will also notice this in almost all the indices.
Let look into some
statistic
On the left there is a S&P500 cycle base on 30 years.
Notice that the volatility increase towards Oct. and then it will dash right
up. On the right we had a 4 years cycle. We are in the pre election term now.
Notice again there is drop in the last quarter then market will move up.
Next
The years ending with 5 is usually a up year.
These are statistic for reference. We cant follow them like
a theory or formula that sure works.As I said before, price in the market rules, now it is a
down trend so short more than long.I did short on 18 and 23 of Sept. Hold for 2 days and the
other an intraday trade respectively. I made some little profit. Market are still in a range and volatile, go
for fast in fast out.
If you wish to look at Singapore stocks for bottom buy, look
out for Singtel, Starhub and SPH. However I wont be a buyer until my indicators
tell me is a uptrend in the general market and that individual stock as well.
Trading/Investment
95% lose money and 5% make money. I think this equation is
very true. Out of the 95% some will quit but there will sure be fresh
participant coming into the market to replace. Let make the assumuption that
the 5% that make money are consistent. Consistent mean 5 years and above having
profit yearly. Out of this group, to be above average is to get a 10% profit
yearly. To be the crème is to have 30-50% profit yearly. To be the best of the
best is to have anything above 50% yearly.
So isn’t Trading/investment real boring. It is not to get
rich quick. It is quite confirm that in any casino games or buying 4D or toto
have a higher chance, better potential and relative lesser effort to get rich
quick. Trading is purely having a plan and stick to a plan. Sometimes I only
have 5 trading signal for the entire year for a particular instrument. I just
have to wait.
Successful traders just have to follow a set of rules that
work year after year and nothing else. A lot of people that I know just wish to
get rich and not wanting to know the process. This market in my view has made
many participant believe that one can get rich or do well with little effort or
knowledge. Also since there is no formal education on how the market works, a
lot of participant went into the market without any knowledge and not even
knowing their approach is entirely wrong. Please do not hear say if you wish to
be serious about this industry. If you just wish to invest or trade to make
money without making any effort, the least you can do is to entrust some funds
to do it. I may have other plans coming out for interested traders.
cheers
