Saturday, November 14, 2015

Shake shake


Hey Folk

We are back to a uptrend. The market is getting shaky again. After awhile you realise that the market will trend after a shaky or unsure period. So now is the unsure and shaky period again, so next the market will trend. When is the unsure period going to be over, is the golden question.

Confession, any indicators on a stock market is not as accurate as before. Back in the good old days, the stock market is much easier to predict. Now (to be exact after 2007-08 crisis) the market is getting harder and harder to foresee. The reason being stock market are more popular, there are more participant and all sort of account sizes. So too many cook spoil the broth. A lot of indicators works well in the commodities and FX region. To analysis the stock market, we have to use a lot of indicators from different perspectives to give a rather accurate findings. Yet these indicators have to be prioritize base on the assumed situations, none of the indicators are a permanent solution for the assumed situations.

However, one fact that has lasted for the test of times is that stock indices always goes up except Japan. Stock market ( referring to indices ) have a upwards bias. The other truth so far is the relationship with bond price.

I think the rate raise will come in December, unless somethings happen from now till then. I changed my stand is because I find that it is more of a political reason rather than a economic reason. Inflation is still low, if is rising, we will already see oil price rising. It is very vivid, we common man on the ground will know it. Example electric bill rise, gas we use for cooking rise, petrol price rise, soap, detergent, egg etc price will go up. However, all this did not happen.

This actually show that economic activities are slowing down. Remember a few weeks ago, I said that our PM say that be prepare for slow down. He never BS. They know things way ahead of us. So be prepared.

Positions

Liquid all my positions this week. Shorted gold again,

Look at suntec riets and Keppel reits. Good shorting candidate.
Asia and emerging market stock are much weaker. Take advantage of it.

cheer