Hey Folk
Britain have decided to exit the EU. It is the beginning of something new. Disintegration
More countries will follow suit what Britain have done and even within
Britain, Scotland wants to stay in the EU. They too can hold a referendum to be
independent and join the EU.
This will surely impact Euro dollar and Sterling directly for a period
of time. So I think these 2 currency towards the USD will be suppressed. Despite
central bank coming to intervene the market.
However, Britain and EU will take 2 years for the ‘divorce to be
sealed’. New trade deals, regulation and legislation have to be discussed and
implement. New border control law and etc. For now it is more of a political
catastrophe than a financial catastrophe, however I do think that there may be
certain hidden ‘financial catastrophe’ factors are building up, maybe worse
than the magnitude of Lehman.
If you happen to have this book titled “one man view of the world” by Mr
Lee which was publish about 5 years ago, he had pointed out that EU will fail
eventually unless a great leader come about. When ask about in his life time
who he consider a great leader he mentioned Deng XiaoPing.
I did go through the book again and I found many similarity of things
that is happening now was mentioned in his book.
So how does it relate to our pocket??? Short Euro and GBP for the long
term. Europe stock market will not be good either. My pick will be US and
follow by China.
I also obvious that there are not much impact on Shanghai market when
Brexit happen. So maybe the next run will be there.
With this exit, I think the FED will not be able to raise rate again. Bank of England said that they are going to do some easing this summer. So rate hike maybe delay again. Which i think is good for the stock market.
Conspiracy theory, FED Yellen is a democrats she is more in favour with Hillary than Trump. And Trump said he will replace her if he is elected. Maybe she want to boost the market up for Hillary.
Cheer
