Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Historical high 2

Hey Folk

Part 2 of it.

Let look at Dow Jones Industrial from yahoo finance

It had already form historical high. Now is about 18,500. Probably it will pass the psychology 20,000 mark. Which is about another 10% for 3 to 6 mths.

Next look at the line that is drawn, the start of the line happen about in 2011. (This is a illustration base on me and my peers age. We graduate about 2010, working for 6mth to a year and have enough saving to invest. )
At that point of time, Dow Jones is about 11,000. Over 6 years till to date, if you invest in Dow Jones you will have a profit of 68%. Just putting your money to work. There are shorter term technique to capture good gains but that need a lot of effort. So if you think thats too much effort and  is not your cup of tea, just find something good and invest in them.

Next STI from yahoo finance




It clearly has not break the historical high of 3805 created in Oct 2007. Now it is 2928. It is clearly a lagger. If you have invested at the start of the line that I drew, it is about end of 2010 which is about 2750. For 6 years, you only had a profit of about 7%. Compare that with Dow Jones of 68%.

Even if before the Lehman Crisis you buy into Dow Jones at 13,930 VS STI at 3805 ( these are historical high price in 2007) . For Dow, one will have a profit of 32.8% while for STI one will have a lost of 23%. These scenario actually happen to a lot of older folk that buy into CPF investment or any other forms of investment during that period of time.

So
1) Invest in a good horse. Easiest to identify is to compare throughout the  breadth eg same industry and get the best.
2) Conditions will change as time. When condition change leader and trend will be changed.

There is no one regime/ruler/party that rule forever, there is no one era the same, there is no one idea that stay forever. Even for a family, you cant keep your children by your side forever. Most of the time is when the best of the best happen and these best usually become a history.
Look for the condition that will displace the current leader, when the condition occur look for another runner. Now the US market is the leader, will it change to Asia market one day?? Look for that condition.

Also lots of data are publicly available from yahoo and google. One can pluck them and do loads of research on it.

Till next time
Cheers