Hey folk
Thought I am not a fundamental analysis person, but i do some thinking on that sometimes after i had my technical analysis done.
What i thought of sharing is more of a broad picture. Let talk about the Leader of the world, USA. It still have the highest GDP around the world. It is still the world police and it still have influence on many things happening in these world.
USA is a countries made up of people whom are not native to the land. They came and decided to kill the red Indians and form their own country. So after they have succeeded, they say ok, you be the judge, you be the sheriff, you be the banker and so on. Things are created this way. You see history, whenever they are hit by economy crisis, they never fail to bounce back. They are creator. They can tear things down that they have build for so long and say alright let restart.
USA also have technology edge as compare to any countries in the world. Your iphone, where is it from? your OS where is it from? Lots and Lots of things are from USA.
The economy of the US having improve since the crisis, they have manage to get lots of things sorted out and iron some straight. Looking at some of the news in the states, you find people queuing for hours for the new launch of whatever. This country GDP depend on internal consumption. If people are queuing up to buy things, do you think they are still in recession?
To me, they are creators. That why Alicia Key in her 'Empire state of mind' sing about New York as a place 'if you can make it there you can make it anywhere'. They will sure recover strongly. Another reason, is GIC is still heavily invested in the USA and also if you had read the 'Hard truth to keep Singapore going' MM Lee said so too.
For China, they will eventually take over USA as the number one in GDP. This is a force that we can never deny. China would slowly have that influence to the world too. Technology wise, the Chinese might not be able to catch up with the US. In fact, i think Chinese might take centuries to catch up in term of technology. Economy development would start from the coastal area of China and move inland. There are still lots of opportunities and lots of things to fine tune in these growing dragon in Asia.
For India, they do not have infrastructure to make their economy power up. They have IT expert, economy expert and what not. However, the caste system, their weakness of their legislation prevent them from moving fast. They will be the up coming after China if they get their things in place.
EU, a place full of history, a place full of culture. After EU is formed, they use the same currency. However, EU has been a place where lots of things are not sorted out yet. There is no 1 foreign policy, is alot of union here and there,they even thought that by keeping interest rate stable when the recession start and finally found that they were wrong. I think they will progress, but slowly.
Just my personal view.
